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Greece - Climate

As the climate crisis intensified, so has the wildfire season in Greece. The year 2023 continued this trend. By the end of July 2023, more than 500 wildfires were burning across the country. Local volunteers, along with forest fire brigades, mobilised to put out the flames whenever they approached the mountain and threatened the forest. Evros region, where the national park of Dadia is located, witnessed Europe’s largest wildfire on record, with more than 94,000 hectares (232,000 acres) of land and forests burned.

Introduced in 1998 for the first time, the current state strategy to tackle wildfires invests heavily in putting out fires with firefighting brigades rather than preventing them through better forest management. It also does not include local communities in firefighting efforts, prevention and planning.

The failures of the wildfire management strategy are compounded by decades of state negligence in urban planning and nature preservation. Lax control of construction has led to settlements becoming death traps during fire emergencies. At the same time, weak protection of forests and other natural habitats has allowed human encroachment on these areas and thus put them at higher risk of fires. As a result, the country has fared much worse in terms of wildfire-cased destruction than other countries with similar landscapes and climatic conditions.

Greece is very hot in summer, especially during the latter part. Winters are mild except in the mountains, where snow occurs from October to June. The rainy months are November, December, and January. Fogs and mists are unknown, so visibility is generally excellent, the country being bathed in sunlight. In Greece, so the saying goes, they are blessed that summer lasts until the end of October. In most years the country’s warm weather and summertime habits stretch further than they do in more northern European countries.

Topographical influences (great mountain chains) on air, deriving from moisture sources such as the central Mediterranean Sea, result in climate subtypes varying from region to region. For example, the islands have smaller temperature differences during the day than the mainland; western Greece has more rain than the eastern part; northern Greece has a colder climate than the rest of the country; the Ionian Islands and southern Crete have very small differences between winter and summer temperatures; while the Aegean Islands have less rainfall and experience strong winds in summertime.

The 2014 report of the International Panel on Climate Change mentions that the temperature of the Aegean Sea will rise between 1.2 and 2.5 degrees Celsius, which means that ‘October summers’ will be something that Greeks won’t necessarily be feeling particularly proud nor happy about. There are also further consequences of climate change that are already starting to affect the everyday lives of Greeks. In 2015, summer in Greece arrived slightly later than normal but from July the temperatures topped 36 degrees almost every day. These are not heatwave conditions by local standards, but both its mainland and islands stayed consistently warm and, when combined with humidity, somewhat sticky.

The deadly heatwave that hit Central Europe in 2003 was at the time considered a once-in-a-1000-years phenomenon. According to the current estimates of the European Environmental Agency, average climate conditions in the 2040's will be approximately equivalent to the conditions of 2003.

The National Observatory of Athens forecast in its research on climate change in Greece from 2021-2050 a bleak future for Greece. They warned that if the objective of keeping the rise in temperature to below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels is not achieved, then the consequences will be serious and multifaceted: people in cities like Thessaloniki, Patra, Lamia and Larissa will feel more discomfort, with an extra 20 days of ‘heatwave’ conditions per year. Also Lamia, Volos, Thessaloniki and Athens will experience fewer rainy days globally but 10% more thunderstorms. This means more danger of floods and forest fires.

The temperature is expected to rise by 2.5 degrees Celsius on average in relation to the period 1961-1990. Regionally, the increase may reach up to 3.8 degrees during the summer months. The increase will be higher in northern Greece and smaller in the southern Peloponnese, the south Aegean islands and Crete. This increase is expected to have dramatic consequences mainly in the urban areas, but also at wooded areas (which we will describe below).

Viniculture will temporarily be favored by the conditions in the wine-producing areas located at the mountainous areas of the country, on the west as well as the north of Thessaly. Specific varieties that until now grew only farther south will now be able to grow there. However, in the long term the increase in the number of hot days, along with the decrease of rainfall, will cancel out any favorable conditions since vineyards will need increased irrigation.

Heat wave days (with temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius) are expected to increase by 15-20 annually by 2050. By the end of the century, "tropic days" (days with temperatures of more than 35 degrees Celsius during the day and more than 20 degrees Celsius during the night) are expected to number more than 50 annually in most areas of the country.

Climate change in Greece will also impact negatively the already-damaged economy of the country as the weather there is a key to the success of the Greek tourist industry. Climate change will definitely “change” the tourist “wave” towards Greece. More heatwaves and more sticky, sleepless nights with temperatures higher than 20 degrees will become features of the Greek holiday experience, especially in the islands. While tourists appreciate warmth in the day, visitors – particularly those from Scandinavian countries, Russia and the UK – who are not used to these conditions will start to find Greece a turn-off and book elsewhere.

Studies have shown that for every 1 degree Celsius temperature increase above 34 degrees, daily mortality increases by about 3%. Recall that after 2046 Greece will have 15-20 more days like these in relation to the present. In heatwaves with daily temperatures higher than 42 degrees, daily mortality due to respiratory and heart conditions increases by 10% and 18% respectively. diaNEOsis' demographic study recently showed that, by 2050, 1 in 3 Greeks will be over the age of 65 – and therefore will belong to the vulnerable groups.

Forest fires will pose significant danger for the natural environment of the country, its infrastructure, as well as its economy. During the decade of 2000-2010 there were 111,642 fires in Greece, that burned down 611,706 hectares. By 2050, high risk days each year are expected to increase by 15% to 70%, depending on the area, while the high risk season will be extended from 2 to 6 weeks per year.

Climate models indicate that summer drought conditions in Greece and other countries of southern Europe will worsen still more over the coming decades, and the number and intensity of wildfires will grow. The ten larger agricultural regions of the country will also receive a lot of pressure due to climate change. Heatwave days and continuous dry days will increase, and winter rainfalls will decrease. As a result, the risk of wildfire will increase significantly. In Evia, for example, 25 more dry days are expected, and Serres and Larisa will see 20 more heatwave days. In Heraklion and Pella, winter rainfalls will decrease by 15%. There is also increased risk of desertification and reduced water availability.

Fires are a common problem in Greece during the heat of the summer, and can cause major loss of life. Wildfires that broke out on the southern island of Evia in 2007 claimed 77 lives. In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and, as a consequence, an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons are projected across Europe. The impact of fire events is particularly strong in southern Europe.

At least 60 people were killed and 170 injured as the deadliest wildfires in Greece in more than a decade swept through seaside areas near Athens on 23 July 2018. Many people attempting to escape the fires fled to nearby beaches to be evacuated by navy vessels, yachts and fishing boats. A number of people are believed to have died after having swam into the sea to avoid flames and smoke. The Red Cross reported finding 26 bodies huddled tightly together in the courtyard of a villa at the seaside resort.