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Ethiopia - Su-35

The Ethiopian Air Force placed an order for six Russian-made Su-35 multirole fighter jets. Ethiopia, which has one of the most capable air forces in Africa, operates a fleet of Su-27 fighters delivered in the mid-1990s. These aircraft proved their worth in the conflict with Eritrea from 1998 to 2000, where the Su-27s outperformed the MiG-29s. Now, after nearly three decades of service, the fleet is in need of replacement.

Details of the deal were contained in a new document from the state defense concern Rostec. Ethiopia is the third country to confirm an order for the 2025 model, following Iran and Algeria. A trove of confidential documents was published online on 03 October 2025 by the hacker collective Black Mirror. The materials include correspondence, presentations, and export contracts detailing Russia's defense cooperation with foreign partners, logistical schemes designed to evade sanctions, and technical documentation related to arms deliveries.

Allegedly from Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, this appeared to outline detailed pricing, delivery schedules, and export plans for advanced Sukhoi fighter jets, According to the leaked table, Iran has ordered 48 Su-35 multirole fighters, Algeria has purchased 12 Su-57 fifth-generation fighters and 14 Su-34 strike aircraft, while Ethiopia has signed a contract for six Su-35s. Previously, Su-35 exports faced difficulties due to threats of Western sanctions, which led Egypt and Indonesia to suspend their orders. Before this, China remained the only foreign operator of this type of aircraft, having received 24 of them.

Prior to late 2025, Ethiopia had not acquired Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, and there was no confirmed evidence that the country operates this advanced Russian aircraft type. While there had been occasional rumors and unverified reports over the years suggesting Ethiopian interest in the Su-35, no credible sources documented an actual purchase or delivery of these aircraft to the Ethiopian Air Force. The confusion may stem from Ethiopia's existing operation of the older Su-30K variant, leading to speculation about potential upgrades to more modern Russian fighters, but such speculation has not materialized into reality.

The Su-35 represents a significantly more advanced platform than the Su-30K aircraft that Ethiopia currently operates. Known by its NATO reporting name "Flanker-E," the Su-35 is a heavily modernized derivative of the Su-27 family, featuring fourth-generation-plus or generation 4++ capabilities. It incorporates advanced avionics, a powerful Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array radar, thrust-vectoring engines with increased power output, and enhanced electronic warfare systems. The aircraft can carry more advanced weaponry than earlier Flanker variants and features improved range and payload capacity. Its maneuverability is exceptional, making it one of the most capable non-stealth fighters in service today.

If Ethiopia were to pursue Su-35 acquisition, the financial implications would be substantial. Each Su-35 costs approximately seventy to eighty million dollars, and establishing the necessary support infrastructure, training programs, and maintenance capabilities would add significantly to the total program cost. For a country like Ethiopia, which faces considerable economic challenges and development priorities, committing resources to such an expensive weapons system would represent a major strategic decision requiring trade-offs in other areas of government spending. The ongoing costs of operating such sophisticated aircraft, including fuel, maintenance, spare parts, and pilot training, would create long-term financial obligations that would need careful consideration.

The geopolitical context surrounding potential Su-35 sales to African nations has been complex. Russia has actively marketed the Su-35 to various countries as part of its efforts to expand military exports and strengthen diplomatic relationships. However, Western sanctions on Russia, particularly those intensified following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have complicated international arms deals. Countries considering major Russian weapons purchases must weigh the risk of secondary sanctions, diplomatic pressure from Western nations, and potential difficulties in financing such acquisitions through international banking systems. These factors would likely influence any hypothetical Ethiopian consideration of Su-35 procurement.

Ethiopia's existing relationship with Russia in the military sphere has been significant, primarily through the earlier Su-30K acquisition and other military equipment purchases. This relationship provides a foundation upon which expanded cooperation could theoretically build. Russian arms manufacturers have shown willingness to work with African customers, often offering favorable financing terms or barter arrangements that might appeal to countries with foreign exchange constraints. However, moving from the Su-30K to the Su-35 would represent a substantial capability jump and corresponding increase in complexity and cost that might be difficult for Ethiopia to justify or afford.

From a strategic perspective, if Ethiopia were to acquire Su-35 fighters, it would dramatically shift the regional military balance in the Horn of Africa. The Su-35's capabilities would provide overwhelming air superiority over any potential regional adversary and project significant power across the region. However, the practical utility of such advanced capabilities is questionable given the nature of conflicts Ethiopia has faced, which have primarily been internal insurgencies or operations against non-state actors who lack any air power. The asymmetric nature of recent Ethiopian conflicts suggests that less expensive platforms, including armed drones and ground attack aircraft, might provide more relevant capabilities for the country's actual security challenges.

The likelihood of Ethiopia acquiring Su-35 fighters in the foreseeable future appears low based on economic realities, strategic priorities, and the international environment. Ethiopia continues to face significant internal challenges, including reconstruction needs following the Tigray conflict, ongoing ethnic tensions, economic pressures including foreign debt obligations, and pressing development needs in infrastructure, health, and education. Allocating limited resources to acquiring cutting-edge fighter jets would be difficult to justify when the country faces these competing demands. Additionally, the international scrutiny Ethiopia has faced regarding human rights concerns and conflict conduct might make major weapons acquisitions politically complicated and potentially subject to external opposition or restrictions.