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Guadeloupe - Climate

Guadeloupe benefits from a tropical climate tempered by maritime influences and gentle winds: trade winds. Two seasons succeed each other: Lent, dry season from January to June, and winter, wet season from July to December. The average temperature is 25°C . Intermittent rainfall concentrated on September and October. Average sea water temperature: 24 to 28°C.

The average monthly temperatures remain remarkably stable, varying by only about 3º C (5º F) year-round. This stability is attributed to the tradewinds (les alizés), which bring refreshing breezes from the northeast throughout the year. Summer is actually a great time to visit the islands because lodging rates are much lower and the beaches, roads and restaurants are not crowded. Winter and the Christmas/New Year holidays are traditionally the most popular time to go.

In August 2007, Hurricane Dean struck Guadeloupe. Guadeloupe also is regularly blanketed by clouds of ash from Montserrat’s volcano. Since 1973, Guadeloupe and Martinique have grappled with the contamination of river waters and sediments with organochlorine pesticides (mainly chlordecone). Several studies already have been conducted and additional ones are under way to determine the health risks for residents in these areas (principally Guadeloupe).

The Hibiscus Study conducted in Guadeloupe in 2003 showed that chlordecone had been detected in 90% of maternal blood and cord blood samples and in 100% of abdominal fat collected during cesarean births (5). Only 40% of breastmilk samples had detectable chlordecone levels, however. The Karuprostate Study, which examined the correlation of chlordecone exposure with prostate cancer, showed a higher risk of prostate cancer in men with higher plasma chlordecone concentrations.

At the national level, in 2001 the French National Observatory for the Effects of Global Warming (ONERC) was set up, tasked specifically with adaptation to climate change. This was followed by the adoption of the French National Adaptation Strategy in 2006. These both marked the beginning of French government activity in the area of climate change adaptation.

Since then, the first French National Plan for adaptation to climate change (2011-2015) has been put in place. During the development of the Plan, the French Outermost Regions, including Guadeloupe, were consulted in order to ensure that the recommendations developed correctly addressed the challenges faced by the OR. As a result, the Plan responds to the needs of the French Outermost Regions even though it does not address them specifically.

Regional adaptation guidelines are defined in Regional Climate, Air and Energy Schemes (SRCAE) under the provisions of Law 2010-788 of 12 July 2010. The SRCAE Guadeloupe, published in December 2012, analysed the vulnerability of the island to climate change and identified priority actions for adaptation to be implemented by 2020-2050. The SRCAE aims to provide a reference framework to ensure consistency in the policies implemented in the field of sustainable development, energy and adaptation to climate change.

The French National Plan for adaptation to climate change (2011-2015) carried out a consultation with the Outermost Regions, including Guadeloupe, during its development to ensure that the recommendations developed correctly addressed the challenges faced by Outermost Regions. Most of the national recommendations did correctly apply to the Outermost Regions. Some recommendations require adjusting to the local context during implementation however. In addition, nine complementary recommendations were developed to consider the specific needs of the French Outermost Regions.

The Regional Plan for Climate, Air and Energy for Guadeloupe (SRCAE Guadeloupe), published in December 2012, analysed the vulnerability of the island to climate change and identified priority actions for adaptation to be implemented by 2020-2050.The SRCAE Guadeloupe presents a state of knowledge on climate change in Guadeloupe, including an overview of both the contribution of Guadeloupe to global climate change and the impacts of climate change relevant to the island. It notes the challenges of identifying potential future impacts of climate change because of a lack of climate models with a high enough resolution to provide information for Guadeloupe. The SRCAE considers the information which is available and concludes that future changes in climate are likely to include:

• An increase in average air temperatures of up to 5°C by 2100: the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4, 2007) suggests (based on the median A1B scenario) annual average temperatures may increase by 2°C in 2050 and up to 2.4°C in 2075 while the Climator project by INRA (2010) estimates average temperature is likely to increase by 1°C by the middle of this century and by approximately 2°C by the end of the century, during both summer and winter seasons;
• Uncertain change in precipitation but a likelihood of water shortages in lakes and rivers in the dry season, an impact already observed, and an increase in the frequency of drought;
• An intensification of tropical cyclones, with higher wind speeds and more rainfall; and
• Sea level rise of 0.8 meters.

A 2008 IUCN report, Climate Change and Biodiversity in the European Union Overseas Entities, assessed the impact of climate change on biodiversity in the European Union Overseas Entities, including Guadeloupe. The report highlighted the risk of coral die-off due to an increase in water temperatures off the coast of Guadeloupe. IFRECOR, the French Initiative on Coral Reefs, has estimated that around 80% of Guadeloupe’s coral reefs are already dead as a result of changing sea water temperatures.