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Taiwan Confrontation - 1999

The 1999 Taiwan Confrontation began on July 9, 1999, when Lee Teng-hui, President Republic of China responsed to questions submitted by Deutsche Welle by saying "The Republic of China has been a sovereign state since it was founded in 1912. Moreover, in 1991, amendments to the Constitution designated cross-strait relations as a special state-to-state relationship. Consequently, there is no need to declare independence. The resolution of cross-strait issues hinges on the issue of different systems. We cannot look at issues related to the two sides simply from the perspective of unification or independence. The Chinese mainland's promise of a "one country, two systems" formula for Hong Kong and Macau is irrelevant to Taiwan ... the ROC is a sovereign, independent state."

President Lee intentionally made his comments in advance of a planned trip to Taiwan by China's top cross-strait negotiator, Wang Daohan -- who was scheduled to visit the island in October 1999. This visit will at least be postponed. President Lee wants to increase Taiwan's visibility around the world and to gain understanding for Taipei's view of the island's status. Continuing political evolution and economic necessity have increased the pressure on Taipei to participate more visibly in international organizations.

The events of July and August 1999 provide some insight into the initial predispositions of the relevant actors that may illuminate future developments:

• Taiwan couched its new definition of its international status in terms that go beyond "One China" but that fell short of the "One Taiwan" declaration of independence that would transgress the mainland's causus belli declaratory policy. Taiwan evidently wishes to explore the extent to which it might asymptotically approach independence, without running the risks that would attend moving directly and explictly to that end state. That this exploration has only just begun is suggested by the fact that responsible Taiwan officials continue to articulate the "special state to state relations" policy, and have not retreated from this posture, some early reports of backpeddling nothwithstanding.
• China, after persistent verbal provocation from Taiwan, offered only verbal responses, while hinting that more concrete responses might be subsequently forthcoming. This pattern of behavior suggests little more than the evident truths that China rejects the "special state to state relations" approach, and that it wishes to return to the status quo at the least possible cost. However, since the present provocation from Taiwan would appear to be more substantial than the provocations that occaisioned the 1995-96 crisis, it would also appear that China is impelled towards a more substantial response than was forthcoming in the previous crisis.
• In the United States, the executive branch reiterated the "One China, peaceful resolution" policy of the past quarter century, while the Congressional mood tends toward a more muscular tilt towards outright independnce for Taiwan. Neither the executive branch nor the Congress was prepared to specify precisely what events would trigger direct American military involvement in the Taiwan Straits, and ambiguity on this point has been the centerpiece of America's "One China" policy since 1972. It is clear, however, that the Congressional mood is more disposed toward American military intervention at some early stage in a crisis, leading to a redefinition of Taiwan's political status, while the Executive appears disposed to direct intervention only under the extreme circumstances that arise from a direct Chinese effort to extinguish the present regime on Taiwan, and that this intervention would be intended to restore rather than transform the status quo ante bellum.

The crisis ended in May 2000, when Taiwan's new president, Chen Shui-bian, said he will not declare independence nor do anything else that China might consider provocative as long as Beijing does not use force against the island. Chen was sworn into office in Taiwan's first-ever democratic transfer of power. Mr. Chen, whose election in March 2000 ushered in a new political era for Taiwan after nearly 55 years of Nationalist Party rule, was conciliatory toward China, which views Taiwan as a rebel province and mistrusts him because of his pro-independence past.