Military

To complete the risk assessment, each staff officer identifies METT-T hazards in his functional area that are not adequately controlled and, therefore, are likely (moderate or higher risk) to cause loss of combat power.

In nominating information requirements (IRs) for selection by the commander as his critical information requirements (CCIRs), the staff should consider enemy and accident (including fratricide) hazards that have been determined to be not adequately controlled. During the process of selecting the course of action, controls will be developed for most of these hazards and they will drop from the IR list. Also, some of these hazards will relate to the status and condition of subordinate and supporting units. For these hazards, the standard charts of each staff officer's estimate should consolidate this type of information and provide the commander a quick snapshot of his unit to aid decisionmaking.

When conducting the mission analysis briefing, a list of hazards that are not adequately controlled, each with its risk level, should be presented. The Safety Officer or G3/S3 collects these hazards from the staff officers and consolidates them into a single list for presentation. (NOTE: The worksheet at Enclosure 9 may be used for this purpose.)

The commander's guidance will address risk. This includes where and what (how much) risk he will accept concerning enemy and accident hazards. It also includes general or specific control measures for each BOS to reduce the risk of hazards. This guidance is based on the higher commander's risk guidance and information about METT-T hazards from the mission analysis briefing, staff officer estimates and the commander's estimate. The commander's risk guidance will be included in the warning order and must be sufficiently clear to enable subordinate commanders and leaders to act in the absence of orders or in unforeseen situations.

COURSE-OF-ACTION (COA) DEVELOPMENT. During COA development, the commander and staff continue to identify METT-T hazards and begin the development of control options to reduce their risk. Risk should be considered when applying the COA criteria of feasibility and acceptability. In terms of feasibility, the unit must have the type, amount, capability and condition of personnel and equipment necessary to minimize the risk of enemy and accident hazards. To be acceptable, the tactical or operational advantage gained must justify the potential cost in resources, especially casualties.

The scheme of maneuver will include a statement of where the commander will accept tactical (enemy) risk. Planners develop control measures (graphics) to minimize the risk of fratricide and other accidents which occur when subordinate and adjacent units violate area of operation (AO) boundaries. COA statements and sketches will cover any significant enemy or accident risks and where they occur for the force as a whole. Sketches will include unit boundaries, obstacle control measures and fire support coordination measures. The COA briefing will include the METT-T hazards (reasons) for proposed control measures.

COA ANALYSIS (WARGAME). During COA analysis, the commander and staff identify additional METT-T hazards and develop control measure options. Wargaming is the analysis method used to identify unforeseen problems and the strengths and weaknesses of each COA. The Safety Officer analyzes the feasibility and acceptability of each COA in terms of residual risk. That is, he determines the level of risk remaining for each METT-T hazard, assuming the recommended control measures are selected for implementation. Next, he determines the level of residual risk for the entire COA using procedures in the unit's SOP. If no procedure is specified, the COA's risk level is the same as the hazard with the highest residual risk. The worksheet at Enclosure 9 may be used to record and display results of the residual-risk analysis for each COA.

COA COMPARISON. The Safety Officer or G3/S3 presents the findings of the residual-risk analysis to the other staff officers for their consideration. The staff may modify controls or identify new ones to further reduce risk. The Safety Officer or G3/S3 scores the residual risk criterion for each COA using weights determined by the CofS (XO). This scoring identifies the difference between COAs regarding residual risk to soldiers, equipment and mission accomplishment. This information is then entered on the decision matrix and presented during the commander's decision briefing.

COA APPROVAL. The commander selects the COA. He then decides what level of residual risk he will accept and approves control measures that will result in that level or a lower level of risk. He must obtain the higher commander's approval to accept any level of residual risk that might imperil the higher commander's intent or is not consistent with his risk guidance. Based on the commander's decision, the staff issues a warning order which includes the commander's refined risk guidance.

ORDERS PRODUCTION. The staff implements METT-T hazard control measures approved by the commander. Staff Officers do this by coordinating the controls and integrating them into the FRAGO and/or appropriate paragraphs and graphics of the OPORD. It is essential to clearly communicate how controls will be put into effect, who will implement them, and how they fit into the overall operation. As an example, see how controls in the worksheet at Enclosure 9 are integrated into OPORD paragraphs at Enclosure 11.

REHEARSAL. A rehearsal is practice to ensure subordinate units are competent and sufficiently coordinated to execute their essential tasks and meet the commander's intent. The rehearsal is also used to confirm subordinate units understand how hazard controls specified in the OPORD will be implemented, who will implement them, how they support mission accomplishment and that the commander expects them to be enforced.

Since information about enemy hazards is likely to increase dramatically after the OPORD has been issued, the rehearsal is used to update subordinate units on this information and modify or develop new controls to reduce tactical risk. Also, issues about hazards and controls specified in the OPORD may arise and require resolution. Any new information or resolved issues about hazards and controls that require change to the published order become verbal FRAGOs. At the end of the rehearsal, the G3/S3 collects these verbal FRAGOs and publishes a written change to the OPORD.

EXECUTION. Risk management helps the commander and staff set METT-T conditions in planning and preserve them during execution so the BOS can be most effectively employed in executing operational functions. Risk management in contingency planning increases agility during execution. That is, if METT-T hazards and controls have been identified for branches and sequels, the commander can select these audibles to take advantage of tactical opportunities and actually reduce enemy and accident risk to the force. This helps the commander and staff generate options to run the enemy out of options.

Unforeseen METT-T hazards will be encountered during execution. Subordinate and adjacent commanders should share information about these hazards by crosstalking and monitoring on the radio net. These commanders can mutually decide on control measures and execute them if they are consistent with the higher commander's intent and guidance. If not, the subordinate commanders can at least "paint the picture" for decision by the higher commander.

ASSESSMENT. Procedures to assess the effectiveness of risk management and safety performance in AARs for operational missions are the same as presented above for training missions. The charts at Enclosures 4 through 8 can again be used to guide, record and present results of the assessments in the AAR.

Risk Management Procedures - Training

Risk Management Responsibilities