APPENDIX D
Task Force Eagle Elections Primer (Hot Spots)
Task Force Eagle published an Elections Primer that discussed hot spots in their area of responsibility. These areas were deemed hot spots because they have a high potential for election related violence. The various hot spots include:
Brcko
Brcko
was one of the most contested areas in Bosnia-Herzegovina due to its location
in the strategically important Posavina Corridor. Because of the arbitration
process, Brcko had consistently been the focus of the international community.
Brcko was critical because it was the centerpiece of a political battle among
all three major ethnic entities in Bosnia. Note that the Brcko Opstina actually
included "three Brckos"-- one for each area of ethnicity. These were: the Bosniac
Rahic-Brcko and Brka, the Croat Ravne-Brcko, and the Serbian-controlled city
of Brcko. The Serbs had been very defensive about the status of Brcko. Some
local Serbian authorities identified they would sooner go to war than hand
over Brcko to another entity. Most voters who decided to cross the IEBL to
vote in Brcko probably moved along Route Kiwi from Brka. Additionally, some
Muslims had been rebuilding their homes in communities (Brod, Dizdarusa and
Omerbegovaca) on the Serb side of the IEBL south of Brcko. Resettlement had
further exacerbated tensions between the two ethnic groups.
Celic-Koraj (Lopare)
The
problems in the Lompare Opstina were the result of Serb wartime ethnic cleansing
and the division of the opstina into two parts by the IEBL. The eastern portion
was now part of the RS. During the war, the Bosnian Muslims fled Koraj and
escaped to the Muslim-held town of Celic. Approximately 2,200 Muslims desire
to return to Koraj to regain their pre-war residences. The Serb community in
Koraj strongly objected to any Muslim visits and would not guarantee their
safety. The Serbs were relatively secure in their political position in the
opstina. Nevertheless, Lopare Opstina was an excellent candidate for electoral
violence if Muslim voters exercised their right to freedom of movement.
Doboj
The
Doboj Opstina could have been an extremely contentious area during the national
elections. The potential for violence was high in Doboj for several reasons.
First, Doboj had strategic value to both the RS and the Federation. The town
straddled a two-kilometer corridor into the Ozren Salient, a large pocket of
Serbian territory southeast of the city. If a non-Serbian entity controled
Doboj, that entity could effectively cut off the Serbian pocket from the remainder
of the RS. Prior to the war, the population of Doboj consisted of approximately
40-percent Muslim, 39-percent Serbian, 13-percent Croatian, and 8 percent other
ethnic backgrounds. At the time of the national election, the population consisted
of over 90-percent Serb and less than 10 percent other minority groups. The
majority of the 21,820 Muslim residents of East Doboj were from Doboj and wished
to return to their original homes. Before the elections, Serb crowds from Doboj
confronted Muslims trying to cross the Usora bridge into town and prevented
their freedom of movement.
Modrica
The
Modrica Opstina could have had Election Day violence due to the movement of
displaced persons from Gradacac, Odzac, Orasje, Tuzla, Zenica and Sarajevo.
Modrica had 10,442 Bosniac residents in 1991, but the majority of them moved
to the Federation. At the time of the election, most of the displaced persons
resided in Gradacac, just south of the IEBL. Muslim authorities organized these
displaced persons to visit gravesites and vote in the last election. Some of
these Muslims caused additional tensions when they tried to return to their
old villages to rebuild homes.
Srebrennica
Srebrenica
was a politically volatile area due to historical memories of the 1995 massacre.
As a result of intense ethnic hatred between the Serb residents and the displaced
Muslims, the opstina could have experienced violence during the elections.
The SDS was the dominant political party in Srebrenica and was expected to
retain power regardless of Muslim voting. Nevertheless, the Women of Srebrenica
could have attempted to create a media event on Election Day to bring attention
to the 1995 massacre. However, they opted not to make the IEBL crossing during
the national elections. The route to Srebrenica was long and crossed through
numerous Serb towns. This may have detered many Muslim voters, but those who
elected to make the journey faced a high probability of Serb-initiated freedom
of movement restrictions and potential violence.
Tesanj
The
Tesanj Opstina had the potential for violence; however, it was not focused
exclusively on voters crossing the IEBL. The highest possibility of violence
stemmed from the very tense relations between the ethnic groups in the Maglaj
Finger. Prior to the war, the Tesanj population consisted of approximately
72-percent Muslim, 18-percent Croat, 7-percent Serbian, and 3-percent other
ethnic backgrounds. At election time, the population of Tesanj consisted of
95-percent Muslims and less than 5-percent other minority groups. The SDA was
expected to retain power in Tesanj, but the Muslim opposition and the Croatian
HDZ and HSS could have gained important majorities in sensitive areas such
as Usora. Muslim-Croatian relations deteriorated dramatically in the region
from Usora (north of Tesanj) south to the Croat town of Zepce. The Muslims
in the region were threatened by Croat political initiatives, such as the creation
of an independent Usora Opstina with an independent Croat police district.
Due to these resentments, non-Muslims voting in or near Tesanj could have faced
violent confrontations with Muslim crowds.
Teslic
Teslic
was one of the most politically repressed areas in the RS. Before the elections,
Serbs disrupted freedom of movement in the area, and conducted extremist attacks
and other acts of political coercion. This oppressive atmosphere could have
adversely affected the elections. Political oppression in Teslic was not just
focused on Muslims, but on all forms of political opposition to the ruling
SDS party. With the SDA supporting and encouraging emblematic IEBL crossings
into Teslic to vote on Election Day, the potential for violence remained extremely
high.
Vares
Vares
was another highly contested area in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Vares was one of only
four cities in the Bosnia Federation that had been unable to form a Muslim-Croat
municipal government. At election time, the municipal government of Vares was
comprised entirely of Muslims who belonged to the SDA. The Croat politicians
who resided in Vares prior to the war formed what they refered to as a government-in-exile
in Przici, a village located 2.5 kilometers southeast of Vares. The official
title of this government was "The Vares District Council of Dastansko." The
community was composed of the three villages: Przici, Dastansko, and Visnijici.
All three villages were populated entirely by Croats. Most Croats in Vares
were unemployed due to Muslim discrimination and the prolonged closure of the
nearby lead and coal mines. In the past, problems in the area centered around
Croat freedom of movement to visit Catholic churches in north Vares, freedom
of travel to and from jobs in Vares, attacks on Croat families, and destruction
of Croat property. In all cases, Muslim municipal authorities ignored or were
actively involved in these acts.
Zepce
Zepce
was a Croat pocket in the Muslim dominated Zenica-Doboj Canton. Prior to the
war, Zepce's population consisted of approximately 47-percent Muslim, 40-percent
Croat, 10-percent Serbian, and 3-percent other ethnic backgrounds. During the
National Elections, the population consisted of over 95-percent Croat and less
than 5-percent other minority groups. Historically, violence in Zepce occurred
as the result of either Muslim or Croat groups attempting to exercise their
rights to freedom of movement in the Maglaj Finger.
Zvornik
The
potential for violence in the Zvornik Opstina was high during the elections.
Pre-war statistics indicated that the Zvornik area was predominantly Muslim.
After the war, Serbs became the dominant ethnic group. Many of Zvornik's displaced
persons lived in the Tuzla Valley and were in an excellent position to cross
the IEBL to vote in the Zvornik Opstina on Election Day. Many displaced persons
crossed through Kalesija into Zvornik. Estimates of Zvornik voters ranged from
300-1,300 personnel. Additionally, it was feared that Muslims returning to
Mahala or Jusici carrying weapons could force further confrontations with Serb
Ministry of the Interior Police (MUPs). There was a Zvornik Special Police
Detachment (SPD) that could respond to incidents during the elections. This
SPD had approval to serve as a quick reaction force, using helicopter support,
to move to areas of civil unrest.
Appendix
C: Elections Timeline
Appendix
E: Soldiers' Guide to BiH Electoral Dos and Don'ts
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