THE THREAT:
General: After the abrupt Croatian reoccupation of occupied Western Slavonia and Krajina in July-August 1995, rebel Serb-controlled territory was reduced to a thin strip of land in Eastern Slavonia. In a further agreement on 12 November 1995, Croatian Serbs conceded that this territory too would be returned to Croatian control over a one- to two-year transition period.
The status of Prevlaka, the point of Croatia which forms one side of the mouth of the Bay of Kotor, and of a strip of territory occupied by the Republika Srpska in Bosnia have been the subject of further discussions. Prevlaka's command of the only access to the important Montenegrin naval port at Kotor, and past shelling of Dubrovnik from neighboring areas of Bosnia, have encouraged consideration of an exchange of territories; however, an agreement was still pending at the end of 1995.
The signing of the Bosnia Peace Agreement on 14 December 1995, combined with successful resolution of the above two problems, would appear to remove any immediate threat of conflict. A breakdown of the Eastern Slavonia agreement could (but would not necessarily) involve conflict with the Yugoslav Army. A breakdown of the Bosnia Peace Agreement would be a greater threat, presenting the possibility of renewed hostilities with the Bosnian Serbs. However the successful Croat-Bosnian campaign of September-October 1995 substantially weakened the reputation of the Bosnian Serb Army as a formidable fighting force.
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