THE THREAT
General Threat: Extremists and local warlords will attempt to block implementation of the Dayton Agreement. Trust by members of any one group for the others is minimal, yet failure to work together will result in more hardship for all.
Immediate: The military and positional advantage of Bosnian Croat forces within the Federation give them little incentive to cooperate with the Federation.
Short and Medium Term: Intervention by Croatian forces in support of the Bosnian Croats is a continuing threat.
Long Term: The Yugoslav army could intervene in support of the Serbian Republic if the Dayton Agreement collapses.
Terrorist Threat: Individuals and groups with an interest in the collapse of the Dayton Agreement may resort to violence to promote distrust and disorder.
Drug Trade: Allegations exist of drug involvement by Serb nationalist irregulars and gang leaders in Sarajevo and Mostar.
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