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APPENDIX A

OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT:
AN OVERVIEW

We have discussed the primary causes of fratricide and the consequences of adverse preconditions and contributing factors. Now we will describe the process by which the battalion commander and his staff anticipate these circumstances along with other risks, assess the relative impact of each contributing factor, and employ risk-reducing measures.

Address fratricide contributing factors, preconditions and other elements operational risk early in and throughout the decisionmaking process. You the commander must develop your concept for accomplishing a mission and provide commander's guidance, including your statement of intent, to the staff. Following the initial METT-T analysis, you must state where and to what extent you will accept risk. Commanders will refine guidance throughout war gaming, order development, rehearsals and execution. As part of accomplishing the mission while preserving combat power, you should eventually identify and incorporate all necessary risk-reducing measures.

According to FM 25-101, Battle-Focused Training, commanders must consider the following points when integrating risk assessment:

  • Accept no unnecessary risks.
  • Make risk decisions at the proper level.
  • Accept risks if mission benefits outweigh the costs.

The risk assessment and management methodology we provide in this chapter will allow you to address the following steps outlined in FM 25-101:

  1. Identify the risks [or hazards] using METT-T factors.
  2. Assess possible loss, cost and probability.
  3. Make decisions and develop controls to reduce [or eliminate] risks.
  4. Implement controls by integrating them into plans, orders, SOPs, training performance standards and rehearsals.
  5. Supervise and enforce at all times safety controls and standards.

"Risk Assessment is the Thought Process of Making Operations Safer without Compromising the Mission." --FM 25-101

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BATTALION LEADERSHIP

Operational risk assessment helps leaders weigh the relative risk associated with each METT-T factor. Whether used for an actual combat operation or a training event, this thought process complements the commander's estimate phase of the decisionmaking process and can be a powerful tool for force protection. Each organization must tailor the specifics of this mostly subjective analysis to its own strengths and vulnerabilities. A single comprehensive, highly numeric approach cannot meet all units' needs under all circumstances. Adverse terrain and weather for a tank task force may be optimal for a light force. Adequate planning time for logistic operation may be marginal to high risk for an aviation cross-FLOT operation. Although this is a simplified approach for wide application, it exploits the potential of the war-gaming process and leader's experienced judgement.

METT-T:... the factors that must be considered during the planning or execution of a tactical operation. --FM 101-5-1, Operational Terms and Symbols

While countless individual factors impact upon risk levels, we offer METT-T as the logical structure to use during the staff planning process. The commander should make necessarily subjective assessments of each factor, its related issues, and its impact. He must consider the most probable enemy course of action and the worst-case alternatives with major branches and sequels. A proposed matrix structure for this METT-T risk analysis accompanies this chapter followed by an example of its application.

MISSION factors include those that elevate the command and control difficulties of executing your mission. Risk depends upon the answers to questions such as:

  • Have soldiers and leaders done this before?
  • Do we know our critical attachments?
  • Are assigned tasks and commander's intent simple or complex?
  • Do we have a simple, decisive, synchronized plan?
  • What is the MISSION-related FRATRICIDE risk (converging forces, weapons density)?

There is inherent risk in enemy contact and ENEMY factors may generally apply to other areas of METT-T as a perceived enemy strength or advantage. Address these questions only once in your METT-T analysis (for training and Live-Fire Exercises (LFXs), apply factors as appropriate for OPFOR and targetry):

  • Do we know the enemy's strength and options?
  • What key terrain and weather advantages help the enemy?
  • Are enemy soldiers in any way superior?
  • Is enemy equipment in any way superior? Threat air or ADA?
  • What was the enemy preparation time? How fast can he react?
  • Are enemy equipment and uniforms similar to friendly and Allied?

"The commander's decisions are based on his analysis of the factors of METT-T, staff input, information gained through reconnaissance, analysis and comparison of feasible courses of action, war gaming and his personal judgement." --FM71-2

The degree of risk to your force from TERRAIN and WEATHER factors stems from your answers to questions such as:

  • What crucial OCOKA factors increase risk?
  • Is navigation tricky or decisive?
  • How do engagement and identification ranges compare?
  • Is terrain familiar or foreign?
  • What known battlefield hazards exist?
  • What is the likelihood and impact of obscuration?
  • What is the weather impact on soldiers and equipment?
  • What is the TERRAIN- and WEATHER-related FRATRICIDE risk (visibility)?

TROOPS is a key area in which leaders assess all aspects of soldier readiness not associated with time available for one mission:

  • Are we physically prepared? Soldier and Leader condition?
  • Individual Proficiency in Combat ID, Rules of Engagement (ROE), direct fire SOPs?
  • Are subunits experienced and proficient in collective tasks?
  • Are our soldiers confident in themselves and their leaders?
  • Are our attachments proficient and experienced?
  • Is this Task Organization READY for this mission?
  • What is the TROOPS-related FRATRICIDE risk (fatigue, Rules of Engagement)?

The availability of mission-related EQUIPMENT (not aggregated readiness rates or C- ratings) can dramatically affect your operational risk -- consider these questions:

  • What is the distribution and reliability of...
    -Night-Vision Equipment
    -Range Finders or Laser Designators
    -Navigation Equipment (GPS or PADS)
    -IFF Expedients
    -Batteries (NVDs, GPS, Commo, etc.)
  • Is communication capability redundant or robust?
  • Do we know our own weapons effects or limitations?
  • Can we sustain our effort?
  • What is the EQUIPMENT-related FRATRICIDE risk (weapons effects, equipment backups)?

"Anticipate events on the Battlefield." --AirLand Battle Imperative, FM 100-5

The amount of TIME AVAILABLE to you will decisively impact on any mission. Important associated questions are:

  • What are the current considerations and constraints on time and pace of the operation?
  • Will continuous operations impact soldier or leader endurance?
  • Is preparation time adequate?
  • Does time permit reconnaissance success?
  • What is the TIME-related FRATRICIDE risk (rehearsals, soldier and leader rest)?

After assessing each METT-T factor, you and the battle staff can consider specific measures to mitigate the risks identified. Incorporate these controls into the plan and rehearsals as appropriate. Remember, the cost-benefit analysis may dictate not using additional controls. In this case, heightened risk awareness is an automatic measure. We recommend a standardized approach with questions tailored to your organization. This will help you to perform operational risk assessment and develop general guidelines for risk-reducing measures. Eventually, many techniques will warrant inclusion in your unit and section SOPs. As with the Troop-Leading Procedures, the final phase of Risk Assessment and Management is to supervise and enforce the provisions of the plan. During execution, as significant components of the estimate change, you the commander will need to reconsider risk levels and reduction measures currently in place. This continuing "in-stride" assessment of risk is an integral component of the Command and Control Battlefield Operating System (BOS).

This discussion reflects the combined efforts of several proponent schools and organizations within TRADOC. We have also published a combined arms command approach for company-level fratricide risk assessment that complements this discussion. We solicit feedback from organizations in the field and in the training base. If you try this or another means of addressing the risk of fratricide or other operational risks during the Troop-Leading Process, please send us your comments for review and dissemination in future CALL products.

Commander
Combined Arms Command
ATTN: ATZL-CTL (MAJ Boatner)
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS 66027
DSN: 552-2132/2659
Coml: (913) 684-2132/2659

"Risk Management is Smart Decisionmaking." --FM 25-101

FRATRICIDE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS (OR PRECONDITIONS)

MISSION (and C2):

Nature of Operation
Complexity of Plan or Intent
Adequacy of Reconnaissance
Direct Fire Control Plan or Measures?
Adjacent Forces Intermingled
360 Fight?
Are we the flank unit?
Unit position with respect to main body
Weapons systems density
Converging Forces
Are stragglers present?
Control of Space
Rules of Engagement
Communication or Reporting Failures
Crosstalk Lacking
Synchronization failure
Detached or Reconnaissance Element involved
Dissemination of Plan
LOs or Adequacy of adjacent unit coordination
Guidance to Attached or Detached elements
Disruption of C2
Feasibility of Fratricide Risk Reduction

ENEMY:

Enemy or Friendly Forces Intermingled
Enemy has similar equipment
Enemy activity

TERRAIN:

Day versus Night
NBC environment
Land Navigation
Terrain (OCOKA)
Orienting Terrain
Engagement Ranges
Compartmented vs Featureless terrain
Obscuration (Fog, Smoke, Dust)
Precipitation
Battlefield hazards (unrecorded or marked minefields, submunitions, etc.)

TROOPS and EQUIPMENT:

Individual proficiency and experience
Collective proficiency
Leader competence
Leader Experience (seasoning)
Situational Awareness
Rehearsals Adequate
Clearance of Artillery Fires
Fatigue or Physical Condition or Endurance
Effective SOPs
Acclimation to region
Habitual Attachments
Location of Tactical Air Control Party
Weapons Errors (Accidents, charge errors, wrong deflection, etc.)
Unit manning level
Soldier's Load
Anxiety, Confusion, Fear
Combat Identification (ground to ground and air to ground)
Friendly Weapons effects (Penetration, blast, ricochet)
Communication Redundancy
Availability of Protective Equipment (MOPP, Flack Vests, Hazardous material)
Availability of Task-Related Equipment
Availability of Navigation and Positioning Equipment
IFF expedient for ground forces

TIME:

Planning Time
Continuous operations with minimal sleep
Continuous operations without sleep
Operation Duration and Intensity of Operation
Soldier and Leader Rest

Table of Contents
Vignette: Combat Training Center (CTC)
Appendix B - Fratricide Risk Assessment Matrix



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