• Military Menu                       

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Industry
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• WMD
• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

Edited by Dr. Sheila R. Ronis.

July 2010

280 Pages

Brief Synopsis

The Project on National Security Reform submitted its 2-year study of the national security system, Forging a New Shield, to the President, President-elect, and Congress on November 26, 2008. Before the Project finalized the report’s recommendations, its Vision Working Group tested the findings against a diverse set of scenarios to determine if the recommendations were robust and effective. This volume documents the scenario-testing process used by the Vision Working Group and includes the actual pre-reform and post-reform scenarios, and details many other scenario techniques used in the overall study. Results revealed that each of the five major findings improved the performance of the current national security system, but, on the whole, the findings concluded that the national security system was at risk of failure and needed serious reform. The work of the Vision Working Group has led to the formulation of an additional recommendation: The country must establish a mechanism to infuse greater foresight into the Executive Branch, and in particular the national security system. This proposed mechanism, named the Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment, would exist and operate within the Executive Office of the President. This volume details the proposed architecture and operation of the Center.

Contents

Foreword

Précis

Introduction
Leon Fuerth

1. The Center for Strategic Assessment and Analysis
Sheila R. Ronis and Caylan Ford

2. Scenario Use in the Project on National Security Reform
Sheila R. Ronis

3. The Pre-Reform Nine Scenarios
Chris Waychoff, Matthew Russell, John Meagher, and Jim Burke

4. The Nine Post-Reform Scenarios
Chris Waychoff and Matthew Russell

5. A Defense Industrial Base Scenario
Sheila R. Ronis

6. Nuclear Bomb Case Study
Lindsey Gehrig, Lauren Bateman, and Sheila R. Ronis

Appendix A: Stress Testing Results

Appendix B: Using Scenario-Based Planning to Develop a Vision of Success

About the Contributors

Access Full Report [PDF]: Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios