Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan
and
United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces
April 2010
PART ONE: Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan
Executive Summary
This report to Congress is submitted consistent with section 1230 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Public Law 110-181), as amended by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010. It includes a description of the comprehensive strategy of the United States for security and stability in Afghanistan. This report is the fifth in a series of reports required every 180 days through fiscal year 2010 and has been prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Director of National Intelligence, the Attorney General, the Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, the Secretary of Agriculture, and the Secretary of the Treasury. This assessment complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to the Congress; however, it is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its international partners, or Afghanistan. The information contained in this report is current as of March 31, 2010.
NOTE: This is a historical document that covers progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan from October 1, 2009 to March 31, 2010. The next report will include an analysis of progress toward security and stability from April 1, 2010 to September 30, 2010.
The attached report is an update on progress toward security and stability in Afghanistan from October 2009 through March 2010. Events during this period centered around President Obama’s December 1, 2009 speech on the way forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The President reiterated the United States Government’s goal of disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Our strategy moving forward is to achieve our objectives through three core elements: a military effort to create the conditions for a transition, a civilian surge that reinforces positive action, and an effective partnership with Pakistan.
The continuing decline in stability in Afghanistan, described in the last report, has leveled off in many areas over the last three months of this reporting period. While the overall trend of violence throughout the country increased over the same period a year ago, much of this can be ascribed to increased International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) activity. Polls consistently illustrate that Afghans see security as improved from a year ago. At the same time violence is sharply above the seasonal average for the previous year – an 87% increase from February 2009 to March 2010.
In his December speech, in response to the deteriorating situation, the President announced the deployment of an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan and requested additional contributions from the international community. Consistent with the President’s policy, an increase of U.S. civilian resources was already underway. On March 31, 2010 there were approximately 87,000 U.S. forces and approximately 46,500 international forces in Afghanistan. Additional U.S. forces are on schedule to arrive in Afghanistan on time to meet mission requirements, with force levels expected to approach 98,000 by August 2010. As of March 31, approximately 113,000 Afghan National Army (ANA) and 102,000 Afghan National Police (ANP) have been fielded. The Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) are broadly on track to meet targeted growth figures of 134,000 ANA and 109,000 ANP by October 2010 and 171,600 ANA and 134,000 ANP by October 2011.
International force levels continue to grow at an approximately proportional rate to the U.S. force increase. Currently, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has accepted force increase offers from 38 countries with multiple capabilities for operations, tactics, and training. Offers totaling approximately 9,000 troops have been received from NATO and non-NATO partners since the President’s December speech. As of March 2010, approximately 40% of the offered increases of international partner troops have arrived in country.
U.S. forces, deployed in conjunction with international forces, operate under a strategic framework based in large part on U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine, focused on population security, while also conducting counterterror operations. This strategy focuses on protecting the population while simultaneously partnering with the ANSF in order to build ANSF capability and eventually transition lead for the security mission to the Afghans, a goal shared by the Afghan Government. A key part of establishing the environment for transition is implementing full partnering between Afghan and international forces. In his November 19 inauguration speech, President Karzai stated a goal of having the ANSF make a full transition to Afghan security lead within three to five years.
NATO Allies and partners have noted that they are cautiously optimistic about the success of the ISAF mission. Many national leaders, however, express concerns over popular support within their countries, which has resulted in continued capability gaps in the Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR) from unresourced requirements not filled by international partners. The most notable gap is the requirement for trainers and mentors to support development of the ANSF. U.S. Forces are taking on this mission, filling the requirements for training and partnering through a combination of embedded partnering of operational units, Embedded Training Teams (ETTs), and re-missioning of combat forces to conduct training.
In terms of operational execution of the ISAF population-centric COIN campaign, combined ISAF and Afghan Government planning teams identified 80 districts as key terrain. In general, key terrain – defined in military terms as those areas that afford a marked advantage to whichever party controls them – are those districts where the bulk of the population is concentrated, and that contain centers of economic productivity, key infrastructure, and key commerce routes connecting such areas to each other and to the outside world. These districts roughly follow the line of the three major highways in Afghanistan through the most densely populated portions of the country.
Supplementing the 80 Key Terrain districts are an additional 41 Area of Interest districts. In general, these are districts that, for a variety of reasons, exert influence on Key Terrain districts to a degree that renders it necessary to focus information collection and operational resources upon them to support operations in the Key Terrain districts.
The focus of the campaign on these 121 districts does not imply that what happens in the rest of the country is unimportant, but it does indicate that the emphasis of ISAF operations is concentrated in those areas that have been identified by combined Afghan and ISAF planning efforts as the most critical to success. The ISAF Joint Command (IJC) assessed that, out of the 121 districts, it had the resources to conduct operations in 48 focus districts (comprised of 45 Key Terrain districts and three Area of Interest districts). Operational assessments necessarily focus upon these areas. Conditions in these districts are assessed by means of bottom-up reporting from Regional Commanders to the Commander, ISAF Joint Command (COMIJC).
Operationally, ISAF, in coordination with the Afghan Government, has commenced conduct of clear, hold, build, sustain, and transition operations throughout Afghanistan as part of an 18- month civil-military campaign plan. Active ANSF and Afghan ministry leadership supports the ongoing Operation MOSHTARAK in central Helmand Province. Combined ISAF, ANSF, and Afghan and international civilians continue to make progress in Marjah. Consolidating gains and continuing to deny the Taliban the ability to re-establish a foothold will be the focus for continued operations. These events collectively demonstrate the increasing proficiency of the ANSF and increased engagement by the Afghan Government.
In order to execute military operations more effectively, the Commander, International Security Assistance Force (COMISAF) continued to refine his strategy by promulgating three new operational directives in addition to the Tactical Directive, Partnering Directive, COIN Guidance, and the Driving Directive issued during the last reporting period. During this period, Commander, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) transferred operational control of all U.S. Forces (less some notional elements) to General McChrystal as Commander, U.S. Forces- Afghanistan, and virtually all U.S. Forces have been put under NATO operational command as well. Enabled by this, COMISAF continued to institute changes to the command and control structure in Afghanistan in order to create unity of command for all operations and foster unity of effort among the many international partners and organizations in Afghanistan. He has not only instituted organizational changes internal to Afghanistan operations but has also directed his efforts to fostering greater military coordination and cooperation among ISAF, Afghanistan, and Pakistan with the creation of the Tripartite Joint Intelligence Operation Center (T-JIOC), situated in Headquarters, ISAF and manned by ISAF, Afghan, and Pakistani forces. The T-JIOC oversees all border incidents.
In the planning and execution of all operations, COMISAF’s first priority is to protect the Afghan population, and in this regard, the population is telling us the trends are positive. From July to November, there was a 50% increase in the proportion of Afghans that saw security improve. Even with the rise in violent events against ANSF and ISAF forces and the civilian population considering the dispute over the August elections, the populated areas saw more improvements than declines. When asked who brings improvements to their area, the population sees the Afghan Government as the source of those improvements. The Afghan population also sees the improvements in the ANSF in Regional Command-East (RC-East), with 91% agreeing that national security forces work for a better Afghanistan.
The overall assessment indicates that the population sympathizes with or supports the Afghan Government in 24% (29 of 121) of all Key Terrain and Area of Interest districts. The establishment of effective governance is a critical enabler for improving development and security. As the operational plan progresses, ISAF is working closely with the Government of Afghanistan and the international community to coordinate and synchronize governance and development in the 48 focus districts prioritized for 2010.
The President’s strategy is dependent not only on the application of military capability, but also on increased civilian capacity. Since January 2009, the Department of State (DoS) has more than tripled the number of civilians on the ground in Afghanistan to 992 (as of March 31). These civilians include experts from eleven different U.S. Government departments and agencies, including DoS, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Department of Homeland Security, Department of Justice (DoJ), FBI Legal Attaché, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), U.S. Marshals Service, Treasury Department, Department of Transportation, and Health and Human Services. U.S. civilian experts contribute to the mission in the field, especially in RC-East and RC-South, where a majority of U.S. combat forces are operating and many of the additional 30,000 forces announced by President Obama will deploy. Civilian personnel will remain deployed in significant numbers after the security situation improves and lead for security responsibility is transferred to the Afghans.
The increase in civilian personnel is a reflection of the President’s strategy to increase civilmilitary cooperation at all levels of operations. The integration of senior civilian representatives (SCRs) with military counterparts in each of the RC’s provides significant improvements to civil-military coordination that occurred during this reporting period.
On January 26, 2010, the NATO Secretary General announced that former UK Ambassador to Afghanistan Mark Sedwill would assume the responsibilities of the NATO Senior Civilian Representative for Afghanistan, as well as assume responsibility as the NATO Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan by the end of January. The appointment of Ambassador Sedwill signalled a broadening of the mandate of the NATO SCR Office, with a view to empowering the incumbent to assume a greater role in coordinating the delivery of international civil support to the ISAF campaign.
SCR Sedwill explained his proposed approach in the course of an Informal North Atlantic Council Meeting held February 26, 2010, chaired by NATO Secretary General Rasmussen. His three priorities comprise: one, overall transition, to include Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) efforts to create the conditions for transition; two, stabilization efforts through the provision of timely Afghan Government-led governance and development in the 80 Key Terrain districts, as designated in the ISAF Campaign Plan; and three, optimizing strategic politicalmilitary coherence with other international community stakeholders, in support of the Afghan Government. The SCR will prosecute these priorities through a restructured office made up of five international directors.
The United States leads 13 of 27 PRTs in Afghanistan. U.S. civilians are posted to all 13 U.S.- led PRTs and to 13 of the 14 PRTs led by our international partners. U.S. civilians operate District Support Teams (DSTs), subordinate to the PRTs, in 32 districts. An additional eight DSTs are scheduled to commence operations in 2010. Since January 2009, the number of U.S. civilians operating in Afghanistan has tripled. As of April 1, 2010, U.S. civilian presence in the field outside of Kabul has more than quadrupled, from 67 to over 350. Embassy Kabul has requested an additional 20%-30% increase in civilian staff levels by the end of 2010.
While improving the security situation is a vital first step, progress made to improve the security environment cannot be sustained without parallel improvements in governance and development. A consolidated approach is crucial to the eventual success or failure of the ISAF mission. Additionally, although ISAF plays only a supporting role in the extension of governance and socio-economic development in Afghanistan, it must continue to use focused key leader engagement to highlight issues and work in partnership with the Government of Afghanistan to develop and implement solutions that promote positive changes in governance.
The significance of private sector growth as a focus for Afghan development was underscored at the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) and at the London Conference in January 2010 with international community endorsement of an Integrated Plan for Economic Development proposed by the Afghan Government. The Afghan Government plans to prioritize strategic objectives and promote synergy among key ministries to define development priorities and develop integrated programs to deliver tangible results.
The ultimate resolution to the situation in Afghanistan will result from political and diplomatic means that capitalize on security operations. President Karzai highlighted reintegration and reconciliation as priorities for his second presidential term during his November 2009 inauguration speech, and has called for international support of these efforts. The U.S. Government has stated that it supports Afghan-led reintegration to assimilate peacefully into Afghan society those insurgent fighters and leaders who renounce violence, sever all ties with al Qaeda and affiliated terrorist groups, and abide by the Afghan constitution.
The Afghan-led reconciliation and reintegration program is currently being developed under the guidance of President Karzai’s Presidential Advisor for Internal Security Affairs. The program will be an inter-ministerial effort to respond to reintegration opportunities in key communities. This program is being designed within the context of the delicate political and ethnic context of Afghanistan and the need to avoid creating perverse incentives for joining the insurgency or exacerbating perceptions of favoritism for certain ethnic and tribal groups. In addition, planning is underway for a Consultative Peace Jirga (scheduled for late May) to reach consensus with key representatives of the Afghan people on a way forward for peace and reintegration.
A cross-cutting issue, impacting all aspects of Afghan Government and economics, is the narcotics trade. The U.S. Government is implementing an interagency approved Counternarcotics (CN) Strategy for Afghanistan. The CN Strategy reflects lessons learned from CN activities from 2001 through 2008 – the most significant of which is that large-scale eradication targeted toward Afghan poppy farmers was counterproductive and drove farmers toward the insurgency. The new strategy places primary focus on interdiction of the nexus between narco-trafficking and the insurgency, but also places a heavy emphasis on agricultural assistance to farmers, with the aim of transitioning them to licit crops, creating jobs, and revitalizing Afghanistan’s historically vibrant agricultural sector. The new strategy carries over activities that have proven to be important in a multi-pronged, whole-of-government CN campaign, including capacity building for Afghan CN capabilities, assistance in promoting the rule of law, support for governor-led eradication and public information campaigns, and drug treatment and demand reduction activities. Strategic communications and counterpropaganda, as well as regional engagement with countries and international organizations, are also features of the new strategy. The CN Strategy supports our overall counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan, and is closely synchronized with the U.S. Integrated Civilian-Military Campaign Plans (ICMCPs) for support to Afghanistan and Pakistan and the U.S. Agricultural Strategy.
Finally, the international community’s commitment to Afghanistan has signaled just how important the impact of regional actors is for the future stability and security of Afghanistan. In particular, engagement with the contiguous border countries, including the Central Asian States, Pakistan and Iran, in addition to engagement with India, the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC), Russia, and China is essential to sustaining an independent Afghan Government capable of providing security and progress for its people.
PART TWO: United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces
Executive Summary
This report to Congress is submitted consistent with section 1231 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Public Law 110-181). In accordance with subsection (a), the report includes a description of the long-term plan for sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF), with the objective of ensuring that the ANSF will be able to conduct operations independently and effectively and maintain long-term security and stability in Afghanistan. The report includes a comprehensive strategy, with defined objectives; mechanisms for tracking funding, equipment, training, and services provided to the ANSF; and any actions necessary to assist the Government of Afghanistan achieve a number of specified goals and the results of such actions. Consistent with section 1231, this report has been prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State. This assessment complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to the Congress; however, it is not intended as a single source of information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its international partners, or Afghanistan.
NOTE: This is a historical document that covers the United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces from April 28, 2009 to March 31, 2010.
The Afghan National Army (ANA), under the command and control of the Ministry of Defense (MoD), and the Afghan National Police (ANP), under the command and control of the Ministry of Interior (MoI), together constitute the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). Building an ANSF of sufficient quality and size to assume the responsibility as the primary provider of security for the Afghan population remains a challenge, with significant risk attached. Over the time period of this report, there have been a number of new initiatives that have reshaped the ANSF development program with the goal of being able to quickly grow the size of the ANSF while simultaneously improving the quality of the overall force. This new approach is transformational in nature and will be explained in the report. The two most significant changes to the ANSF program include improved unity of command through organizational changes to the NATO command structure, including the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) Joint Command (IJC) and NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A), and the embedding of international forces to partner with the ANSF at all levels to provide mentorship and leadership in the operational environment.
In January 2010, the Joint Coordination Monitoring Board (JCMB) approved the Afghan Government request to establish new end-strength goals for the ANA and ANP of 134,000 and 109,000, respectively, by October 2010, and of 171,600 and 134,000, respectively, by October 2011. One of the most significant challenges to successful execution of the ISAF plan for the growth and development of the ANSF is the shortage of NTM-A institutional trainers. These trainers provide basic and advanced instruction and training to the ANSF along a range of policing and war-fighting skill sets. The U.S. Government has aggressively engaged NATO Allies and non-NATO partners to contribute forces to fill validated capabilities, as identified by the NATO Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR). Without sufficient mentors and trainers, our ability to effectively grow and develop the ANSF is at risk.
To provide for the growth and development of the ANSF, Congress appropriated $6.6 billion in FY 2010 for the Afghan Security Forces Fund (ASFF). This is two-year funding that will be used to directly support the President's strategic objectives and it supports the October 2010 endstrength goals of the ANA and the ANP. In February 2010, the Department of Defense (DoD) submitted the FY 2010 ASFF Supplemental request of $2.6 billion and the FY 2011 Overseas Contingency Operations ASFF request of $11.6 billion. To improve oversight of ASFF, NTMA/ Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A) has added additional staff and implemented organizational changes, including the addition of a one-star general as the Deputy Commanding General of Programs (DCG-Programs), directly responsible for execution of the ASFF budget.
The MoD and ANA continue to improve capacity and increase end-strength. The MoD’s strengths include strong leadership from the Minister and the Chief of the General Staff and an improving capability to formulate and distribute policies, plans, and guidance. In particular, within both the Operations and Communications Directorates, progress has been made in achieving improved capability measurement (CM) ratings. On the other hand, challenges within MoD’s Education Directorate, Logistics Command, and Acquisition Agency have led to delays in capability progression. Systems development in both logistics and personnel management are key focus areas for NTM-A mentors.
The ANA is continuing to grow at an accelerated rate, focusing on infantry-centric forces to provide immediate security-capable boots-on-the-ground, while consciously delaying development of many of the combat support and combat service support enabler units until a later date. The ANA has, to date, been able to meet its growth goals through improved recruiting and positive trends in retention and attrition. However, there are problems associated with the rapid growth; most prominently, scarce officer and non-commissioned officer (NCO) leadership for new units while maintaining adequate leadership support within existing units. Embedded partnering with international partner units is intended to mitigate some of this leadership risk.
The ANA Air Corps (ANAAC) continues to grow and improve its capabilities. Currently the ANAAC includes approximately 3,100 personnel and a fleet of 46 aircraft, up from 2,538 personnel and 32 aircraft in May 2009. The ANAAC has a fleet of five AN-32s and one AN-26 fixed-wing propeller-driven aircraft that provides medium cargo lift. In addition, in October 2009, the ANAAC acquired its first two U.S.-manufactured C-27 Spartan fixed-wing propellerdriven aircraft that will also perform the medium airlift mission. This is historic as it is the first ever Western-built aircraft in the ANAAC inventory.
NTM-A continues to work within the MoI to advise and mentor selected senior Afghan officials and officers. Ministerial capacity within the MoI lags behind the MoD and corruption remains an issue. There are positive sign of capacity improvement including the internal development of a National Police Strategy that Minister of Interior Atmar signed in February 2010.
The ANP currently is on track to meeting growth goals, but there is overall concern among the U.S. interagency and the international community regarding the ability of the ANP not only to grow but also to improve the quality of both basic police training and the quality of the fielded force. The MoI, in coordination with NTM-A, has instituted a series of programs to improve recruiting, retention, and attrition of the ANP while also promoting the development of a quality force. These initiatives include establishment of the ANP Recruiting Command and the ANP Training Command to provide structure and oversight in the critical areas of increasing police pay, adding mandatory literacy training to the basic training program, developing Afghan-led Police Training Teams, and embedding international partner units with the ANP.
Operationally, the ANSF have taken the lead in the conduct of operations in many districts of the country, with ISAF in support, and have lead security responsibility in RC-Capital. The ANSF have been the lead in OPERATION MOSHTARAK in RC-South, with planning directed and coordinated by the MoD and MoI with ISAF, and effectively partnered with ISAF units to clear and now hold the area. The initial success of this operation has resulted in localized security improvements and improved freedom of movement for the population.
In the coming year, DoD will continue to work with the ANSF to grow and develop the force so they can eventually assume lead for security responsibility throughout Afghanistan. There is considerable risk in this plan, but COMISAF will assess the new programs as they move forward, including a formal assessment this summer, to allow for course corrections and implementation of mitigation strategies. Additionally, success also depends on the Afghans exercising determined leadership and rooting out corruption and incompetent leaders within the ANSF to gain trust and credibility with the Afghan people. To achieve our goals, we must continue to work with the international community and the Government of Afghanistan in the upcoming year to improve accountability and ensure structures are in place to institutionalize best practices and ensure transparency within the ANSF.
Finally, in order for the ANSF to successfully transition to security lead, there is a requirement for a minimum acceptable rule of law capacity (i.e., governance, courts, judges, prosecutors, and correctional capacity) to support the security effort. Defining sufficient rule of law capability, and the resources required to achieve it, is outside the scope of this report but is being addressed by the interagency and international community. Without the necessary supporting rule of law structures, the ANP will become ineffective over time. No matter how many police we train or how well we partner with them, without sufficient rule of law and governance, transition will fail.
Access Full April 2010 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan & United States Plan for Sustaining the Afghanistan National Security Forces [PDF 3.58MB]
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
