Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan
October 2009
Executive Summary
This report to Congress is submitted consistent with Section 1230 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Public Law 110-181). It includes a description of the comprehensive strategy of the United States for security and stability in Afghanistan. This report is the fourth in a series of reports required every 180 days through fiscal year 2010 and has been prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Director of National Intelligence, the Attorney General, the Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, and the Secretary of Agriculture. This assessment complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to the Congress; however, it is not intended as a single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its Coalition Partners, or Afghanistan. The information contained in this report is current as of September 30, 2009.
NOTE: This is a historical document that covers progress made in Afghanistan from April 1, 2009-September 30, 2009. The next report will include an analysis of progress toward security and security from October 1, 2009-March 30, 2010.
As of the September 30 data cut-off date for this report, at the direction of the President, the United States Government is in the midst of a series of strategic discussions regarding the Afghanistan Pakistan Strategy. The results of these discussions will be reviewed in the next iteration of this report.
This six-month period is notable for execution of steps taken to implement the President's new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, as stated on March 27, 2009. The strategy focuses on the core objective of disrupting, dismantling and defeating al Qaeda and its affiliates and preventing them from again using Afghanistan as a safe haven for launching terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland, our allies, or our forces. As part of the new strategy, the President approved deployment of an additional 17,000 troops, in addition to approximately 13,000 approved under the previous administration. These 30,000 U.S. troops, along with more than 4,000 additional NATO and non-NATO forces, were deployed in time to assist the Afghan government with provision of security for the Presidential and provincial elections held on August 20, 2009. In addition, this period marked changes in the military leadership of both U.S. and NATO forces. On June 10,2009, after confirmation by the Senate and with the approval of the North Atlantic Council (NAC), GEN Stanley McChrystal assumed his position as Commander, International Security and Assistance Forces (COMISAF), dual-hatted as Commanding General, United States Forces-Afghanistan (USFOR-A).
On June 26, 2009, GEN McChrystal, under his Commanding General, USFOR-A hat, was directed by the Secretary of Defense, through the Commander, U.S. Central Command, to provide a multidisciplinary assessment of the situation in Afghanistan within 60 days. During the conduct of his assessment, GEN McChrystal issued a series of directives articulating a population-centric counterinsurgency approach. His July 1 Tactical Directive ordered ISAF forces to refocus their efforts toward an "operationally imperative goal" of gaining and maintaining the support and control of the Afghan population. This directive tasked leaders at all levels with scrutinizing and limiting the use of force against locations in situations likely to produce civilian casualties. His subsequent Partnering Directive, of August 24, provided guidance for ISAF to conduct embedded partnering with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), from the ministries down to the platoon level, in accordance with the President's strategy and counterinsurgency principles. On August 26, COMISAF issued his Counterinsurgency Guidance, stating that "protecting the people is the mission." The guidance noted that the conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy. This guidance represents a significant departure from the manner in which the conflict has been fought to date.
COMISAF issued his Commander's Initial Assessment to the Secretary of Defense on August 30, 2009. The report assessed the overall situation, reviewed plans and ongoing efforts, highlighted his revisions to operational, tactical, and strategic guidance and suggested revisions to the Afghanistan strategy. COMISAF stated that there is an urgent need for a significant change to our strategy and the way that we think and operate. He emphasized that Afghanistan is a different kind of fight where the United States and NATO are operating in a uniquely complex environment. He suggested that three regional insurgencies have intersected with a dynamic blend of local power struggles in a country damaged by 30 years of conflict creating a situation that defies simple solutions or quick fixes. COMISAF called for a shift in our strategy towards supporting the population. The strategy recognizes that the Afghan people are a critical component in this complex struggle. Gaining their support is vital, but progress is hindered by a resilient insurgency and a crisis of confidence in the government and the international community. Although the conflict in Afghanistan is a war of ideas, we must recognize that we are operating in a "deeds-based" information environment where perceptions derive from actions, such as how we interact with the population and how quickly things improve. The key to changing perceptions lies in changing the underlying truths.
The assessment highlighted two key areas where the Commander believes we need to think differently. GEN McChrystal believes we must understand the impact of time on our effort in Afghanistan. The fight is not an annual cyclical campaign of kinetics driven by an insurgent "fighting season". It is a year-round struggle, often conducted with little apparent violence, to win the support of the people. Second, we face both a short and long-term fight. Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) -while Afghan security capacity matures -risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.
Further, the assessment described two fundamental elements where ISAF must improve:
• Change the operational culture of ISAF to focus on protecting the Afghan people, understanding their environment, and building relationships with them; and,
• Transform ISAF processes to be more operationally efficient and effective, creating more coherent unity of command within ISAF, and fostering stronger unity of effort across the international community
Under the backdrop of the strategic discussions, the effort in Afghanistan continues. The Afghan presidential and provincial elections took place on August 20, 2009. In the lead-up to the elections, insurgents launched high-profile attacks in a concerted intimidation campaign against the civilian population in an effort to disrupt voting. On election day, insurgents launched 135 attacks throughout the country and killed 26 civilians. Approximately 11 percent of polling stations were closed due to security concerns, and observers noted that voter turnout was low in the South and East of the country in areas with a high incidence of violence and poor security prior to Election Day.
Following the election, there were widespread claims of fraud. In September, the Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), the body responsible for investigating allegations of electoral fraud, quarantined ballots from approximately 600 voting stations in the Ghazni, Paktika, and Kandahar provinces due to what the ECC described as "clear and convincing evidence of fraud." In addition, the ECC is working with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to conduct an audit and recount of polling stations where initial results show high electoral irregularities. As of September 26 the IEC had released preliminary results for 30 of the country's 34 provinces in the provincial council elections.
The fraud and corruption evident during the elections highlight the fact that corruption remains a critical challenge to achieving U.S. objectives. The widespread fraud during the August elections further diminished the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Levels of corruption showed little reduction during the reporting period. The persistent problem of corruption undermines security and reconstruction efforts as it diminishes the legitimacy of the Afghan government coupled with diminishing the Afghan population's support of the government.
Overall, security deteriorated in Afghanistan during the reporting period. As of September 30, the security situation is assessed as stable (not declining) but fragile. The insurgency, in advance of Presidential elections in August, expanded its sphere of influence, increasing violence and intimidation levels in the South and East of the country, while establishing a presence and expanding operations in the West and North. In particular, violence has increased in Farah and Herat provinces in the West, and Kunduz province in the North. The overall trend of violence throughout the country rose to a peak during the week of the August 20 election, showing a gradual decrease post-election. Violence rose in all categories of attacks and in particular Improvised Explosive Device (lED) attacks, and associated casualties, have increased during this period. Deteriorating security, a perception of an inadequate and corrupt Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA), and a lack of progress in development and reconstruction has allowed the insurgency to increase its influence over the Afghan population and decrease public confidence in the GIRoA.
Operations during this reporting period focused on: security support for the Afghan Presidential election in August; provision of route security and freedom of movement for the population, Afghan Government and ISAF forces; integrated Clear, Hold, Build counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in support of designated districts; partnering and mentoring activities with the ANSF; facilitating civilian sub-national governance capacity and development efforts and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan; and supporting counter-narcotics operations.
As a result of the President's decision in March 2009, U.S. force levels in Afghanistan increased by about 21,000 between April and October 2009 and currently stand at approximately 66,000 personnel. These forces represent about 97% of the forces currently approved for deployment by the President. During the same period, international force levels increased by approximately 4,000 personnel, to approximately 39,000. These additional international forces deployed mainly in support of additional security requirements for the August elections.
The large increase in the number of deployed U.S. personnel in Afghanistan coupled with effective U.S. operations, particularly in Regional Command-South (RC-S) and Regional Command-West (RC-W) increased exposure of our forces to violent action. Consequently, U.S. military casualties increased significantly compared to previous years. August 2009 proved to be the deadliest month for U.S. personnel in Afghanistan, since the start of the war, with 47 deaths. The number of U.S. fatalities as a result of enemy action for the period of April-October 2009 increased by 57 percent over the same period in 2008. In addition to the increase in U.S. military fatalities, the ANSF saw heavy action and suffered an increase in casualties as well.
Civilian casualties continue to have an adverse effect on ISAF operations accomplishment of strategic objectives. GEN McChrystal commented that while he understood the importance of civilian casualties when he began his mission, after a short time on the ground he found that civilian casualties have even further implications in a COIN fight in Afghanistan than they do elsewhere.
The ANSF remains on a steady pace to meet 2009 objectives for assigned and trained personnel, with Afghanistan National Police growth an area of significant risk. ANSF growth in both quantity and quality is the central tenet of our efforts towards enabling Afghans' ability to assume security responsibility in the four-step process of clear-hold-build-transfer. There are significant hurdles the Afghan Government must overcome to achieve ANSF goals. Further, U.S. and international efforts must improve to increase ANSF capabilities in certain key areas, most notably in rectifying the shortage of mentors to partner with the ANSF in combat and policing operations. President Obama's objective of a self-reliant security force capable of taking the lead role in the counter-terrorism fight with reduced assistance from international forces, along with GEN McChrystal's new strategic focus on partnering with the ANSF will be the drivers to accelerate ANSF development.
The United States has shifted from a five-pillar Counter-Narcotics (CN) strategy to supporting the GIRoA eight-pillar strategy, in order to align U.S. efforts more effectively with those of the GIRoA. The GIRoA strategy's pillars are: international and regional cooperation; institution building; demand reduction; public awareness; alternative livelihoods; interdiction; justice sector reform; and eradication.
The focus of U.S. CN efforts has shifted. The United States will support the Afghan CN strategy by increasing emphasis on alternative development and interdiction and decreasing its emphasis on eradication. As U.S. and international operations in the south provide increasing security, the new focus will provide increased assistance to the farmers and poor Afghans that bear the majority of the burden of eradication, and target the individuals and networks that enable and profit from the drug trade. Overall U.S. support for Afghan CN initiatives will increase, particularly for agricultural assistance, interdiction, law enforcement, public information, and reducing drug demand. The GIRoA leads eradication operations and has pledged to continue to conduct eradication operations independent of U.S. support.
In August 2009, in support of efforts to improve coordination of governance and development efforts between civilian and military components, Ambassador Eikenberry and General McChrystal signed the United States Government Integrated Civilian Military Campaign Plan for Support to Afghanistan. The Integrated Civil-Military Campaign Plan for Afghanistan provides guidance from the U.S. Chief of Mission and the Commander of U.S. Forces-Afghanistan to U.S. personnel in Afghanistan on the manner in which civilians under Chief of Mission authority will coordinate with US Forces under CDRUSCENTCOM authority to execute governance and development efforts. Civilian-military cooperation is integral to success in Afghanistan as the climate requires simultaneous planning, coordination, and integration of combat operations and reconstruction activities in order to separate the population from the insurgency and create a legitimate, stable Afghan government.
The United States leads 12 out of 26 Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) in Afghanistan. U.S.-led PRT efforts are funded through DoD Commanders Emergency Response Program (CERP), complemented by USAID-funded development programs. CERP funds are not used to cover PRT operating costs. The individual province strategies and objectives remain unchanged from the previous report. Military command and control arrangements for the PRTs also remain unchanged.
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