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World View: The 1998 Strategic Assessment from the Strategic Studies Institute

Edited by Dr. Earl H. Tilford Jr..

February 26, 1998

81 Pages

Brief Synopsis

World View presents the annual strategic assessments of the analysts at the Strategic Studies Institute. It is fifth in a series that reflects both our individual forecasts and collective review of the key security issues facing the United States. The process that produces World View also leads to our annual Research and Outreach Plan.

The strategic context is not vastly changed for 1998. It is as complex and uncertain as it has been virtually every year since the end of the Cold War. This year, however, we are also assessing the future in the light of the Quadrennial Defense Review, published in May 1997, and the Report of the National Defense Panel, issued in December.

Like the first post-Cold War decade, the first 20 years of the next century will be vibrant times for the armed forces, and the Army in particular. The 21st century, as we already see today, will be a time in which land forces play pivotal roles in the strategic environment. This central place of land forces in our national defense coincides with the evolution of the Army to Army XXI and subsequently to the Army After Next, potentially a more revolutionary transformation.

The Strategic Studies Institute offers World View as an assessment which we hope will be of value to strategic planners, as well as to those who have an interest in the nation's security well into the 21st century.

Contents

FOREWORD

SECTION I. ARMY ISSUES, THE FUTURE AND THE ARMY AFTER NEXT

Army Issues: A Time of Change
Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr. and Douglas V. Johnson II

The Future and the Army After Next: A Contextual Framework for the Future
William J. Doll

The State of the Army After Next
Douglas V. Johnson II

SECTION II. THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW AND THOUGHTS ON THE NATIONAL DEFENSE PANEL REPORT

Quadrennial Defense Review
William T. Johnsen

The Report of the National Defense Panel
William T. Johnsen

SECTION III. TRANSREGIONAL SECURITY FORECAST

Europe
Thomas-Durell Young

Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States
Stephen J. Blank.

Eastern Europe
Stephen J. Blank

Bosnia-Herzegovina
William T. Johnsen

Asia Pacific
Stephen J. Blank

The Middle East and Southwest Asia
Stephen C. Pelletiere

Sub-Saharan Africa
Steven Metz

Latin America
Donald E. Schulz

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF THE AUTHORS


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