Assad and the Peace Process: The Pivotal Role of Lebanon
Authored by Dr. Stephen C. Pelletiere.
February 01, 1995
54 Pages
Brief Synopsis
The world is waiting for peace in the Middle East. At present the possibility of a settlement is delayed by differences between Israel and Syria. The two are far apart on how to solve one of the thornier problems of the negotiations--the eventual status of the Golan Heights.
That Syria's President Assad and Israel's Prime Minister Rabin should find themselves in disagreement is not unusual--Israel and Syria have been enemies for years. But that Assad should be able to hold out against Israeli power is quite extraordinary.
Assad has played an extremely astute game of diplomatic intrigue against the Israelis, with successes far beyond anything one might have imagined. This study shows how the Syrian was able to improve his originally weak position in the peace talks by exploiting crisis conditions in Lebanon.
Assad's major weapon against the Israelis has been the guerrilla group Hizbollah. The author claims that the fact that a small group of guerrillas could have such an enormous impact in this international drama reveals changed power relations in the strategic Middle East.
Summary
This study considers the remarkable performance of Syria's President Hafez al Assad, who took what apparently was a bankrupt negotiating stance in the Arab-Israeli peace talks and turned it into a position of strength.
What enabled Assad to make this extraordinary turnaround was a correct analysis of power relations in the Middle East. In particular Assad seems to have been among the first Middle East politicians to recognize the potential of groups like Hizbollah, which has for over a decade now been carrying on a fierce guerrilla war against Israel in southern Lebanon. The study examines why Israeli society is vulnerable to the Hizbollahis, and how this vulnerability has played into Assad's hands.
The study also considers the arguments of those who oppose making concessions to Assad, because, they claim, his position at home is so weak that he would be unable to deliver on any deal that he might make.
The study concludes with a look at the anarchic conditions in Lebanon and ponders whether the radical forces set loose there can ever again be brought under control.
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