U.S. Policy in the Balkans: A Hobson's Choice
Authored by Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Dr. William T. Johnsen, Dr. Earl H. Tilford Jr..
August 28, 1995
39 Pages
Brief Synopsis
At this writing, the strategic balance may have shifted in the ongoing war in the former Yugoslavia, and the region could be on the verge of a settlement. But, the "window of opportunity" may be fleeting, and the failures and frustrations of the past four years temper any optimism that conflict in the former Yugoslavia will end quickly or completely. If this opening passes without an end to the fighting, the United States may have to reassess its fundamental policy objectives and the ways and means to achieve them if peace is to be effected in the Balkans.
The intent of this report, therefore, is to analyze and assess existing policies, to identify any conflicts or contradictions that may stymie U.S. efforts to bring about a peaceful resolution of the crisis, and to offer potential solutions. The report does not offer an ambitious criticism of policy or an "expert's" solution to an intractable problem. Its more modest goal is to examine current policy within a context that fits Bosnia into the larger pattern of U.S. interests and policy. In this manner, the report offers a broader framework for the strategic decisions that may face the United States in the not so distant future.
KEY JUDGMENTS
• While the war in Bosnia is complex and confusing, these circumstances should not deter the United States from seeking potential solutions to this conflict. The severity of potential European and global consequences should drive U.S. policymakers to take an even more proactive role in efforts to resolve the conflict.
• Stated and de facto U.S. policy objectives are not mutually reinforcing. Indeed, the goal of restoring the territorial integrity of Bosnia-Hercegovina conflicts with other objectives: preventing the spread of fighting; stemming the flow of refugees; halting the slaughter of innocents; and helping support NATO's central role, while maintaining the U.S. role in shaping Europe's security architecture. The United States must seriously reconsider whether it should retain or revise this goal.
• The stability and security of the entire Balkan peninsula may be at risk. Prolonged disequilibrium could set back the development of newly emerging democracies in the region. An expanded conflict would likely bring Greece and Turkey–key NATO allies–into the conflict, probably on opposite sides.
• Protracted conflict in the Balkans could strain relations between Europe and Russia, as well as between the United States and Russia. This could lead to renationalization of security agendas in Central and Eastern Europe that could forestall the extension of market democracies in those critical regions. The consequences for Western European security policies are obvious. • Increased strains within NATO could reduce the U.S. ability to influence events in Europe; an outcome certainly not in long-term U.S. interests.
• Continued conflict in the former Yugoslavia is likely to diminish U.S. public support for substantial U.S. engagement in international affairs. The perceived ineptitude of the United Nations and intramural squabbling within NATO could undermine U.S. public support for both of those key security organizations.
• The inability of the United States to shape a resolution of the war in the former Yugoslavia could undermine U.S. influence in key areas of the world. Concomitantly, potential opponents might perceive that they could challenge U.S. interests at low levels without fear of penalty. These phenomena could contribute to a downward spiral of U.S. influence abroad that might erode the U.S. deterrent capability to the point where an adversary might directly confront U.S. interests.
• The long-term European and global consequences for the United States from short-term decisions on Bosnia could be substantial. Thus, while it may be simplistic to say it, any decisions concerning further U.S. involvement in the Bosnian war must be framed in light of these consequences, and not simply in accordance with the day-to-day exigencies of the Balkan crisis.
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