NATO:
Anachronism or Answer An Argument For Collective Defense
CSC
1995
SUBJECT
AREA - National Security
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EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Title:
NATO: Anachronism or Answer -- An Argument for Collective Defense
Author:
Major C. A. McNerney, USA
Thesis:
The goal of U.S. policy in the Transatlantic Alliance should be maintenance of
NATO as a
collective
defense organization. Center and most basic to this goal is the need to
continue NATO.
Background:
Never before has the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faced the
complex
challenges presented in today's monumentally changed world order. To meet these
challenges
and survive, NATO members must renew their commitment to the Alliance by
redefining
NATO's
role and perhaps it's identity. The U.S., as the sole remaining super power,
must take the
lead
in setting policy for NATO continuance; NATO's continuance provides security in
the form of
a
proven deterrent against any future threat.
One of the key questions facing NATO
concerns the necessity and method of expansion.
Critical
to expansion are the Partnership for Peace (PfP) initiative and the question of
whether
Russia
should be admitted as a full NATO member. Resolving these questions will
provide the
framework
for continued European (and thereby Transatlantic) security. Incorrect use of
the PfP
initiative
as a "no questions asked" vehicle to NATO membership will create a
collective security
organization.
Collective security organizations historically fail because they rely on
countries
placing
collective priorities above national priorities. NATO's strength has been (and
should
remain)
in it's collective defense identity, complete with the commitment of military
power.
Table of Contents
Introduction
and Thesis
1
Part
I
Background 4
The North Atlantic Treaty 8
Other Organizations 13
Part
II: Why NATO? 18
Part
III: Partnership for Peace
Background and Basics 20
As A Vehicle for NATO Membership 24
Membership Expansion 26
Part
IV: Russia 29
Part
V: The New "Threat" 34
Conclusions
37
Endnotes
Bibliography
The world was shocked when the Berlin
Wall collapsed in 1989.
Overwhelming
changes in world order followed this monumental event -- the
changes
continue today. Never before has the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO)
faced such complex challenges, some of which pose a threat to the very
existence
of the organization. In the former Yugoslavia, cultural and religious strife
has
repeatedly redrawn the Muslim/Croatian/Serbian boundaries at a cost of
thousands
of lives. This horror is constantly portrayed vividly in the news. For the
most
part, however, the challenges to NATO are much more subtle than the real
threat
of nuclear holocaust in the days of the Soviet Union. These challenges have
insinuated
themselves into the fabric of the NATO alliance in the form of strong
renewals
of national agendas on both sides of the Atlantic, much older than the
origins
of the treaty itself. NATO walks a delicate wire in a balancing act between
Russia
and the former Warsaw Pact members. On one hand, NATO needs to
reassure
the former Soviet bloc countries of its sincerity (especially on the
membership
question). On the other hand, NATO and the Alliance members want
to
show Russia that expanded membership is not threatening. This is made even
more
difficult as support for the likes of ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky
increases.1
There is a wealth of information
available on the subject of NATO (ranging
from
opinion to fact), as evidenced by the findings of the research phase of this
project.
Equally significant to this effort is that "truth" in 1991 and 1992
(and any
other
year of NATO's existence) will not "hold water" today. A now
controvertible
truth
is that truth is dynamic, changing on a daily basis, along with the borders in
some
Eastern European countries. The significance of those dynamics to this
project
is that innovative theories addressing the future of the Transatlantic Alliance
are
hard to define and harder to defend. Perhaps more importantly, NATO needs to
face
the challenges by continuing to offer stability to its members as an alliance
of
collective
defense.
According to some, the world changes
that began with the collapse of the
Berlin
Wall signaled the death knell for NATO and like organizations. These
bodies,
established when Europe was at the center of world politics, with a clearly
defined
Soviet "threat", have, according to some, outlived their usefulness.2
These
well
documented opinions represent the most significant challenges to NATO's
future.
To survive and hopefully flourish, NATO's first agenda item must be
continued
commitment from each of the 16 member countries that survival of
NATO
as a transatlantic alliance is desired and/or necessary for their
collective
well being. During the Annual Summits held since 1989, the member
nations
have indicated their consensus on this.3 NATO must now find a way to
redefine
it's role from its original charter, and even from the changes outlined in the
New
Strategic Concept (also known as the Alliance Strategic Concept) ratified in
Rome
in 1991. This, the pivotal question, becomes clear -- What course of action
best
addresses the challenges in a vastly changed world with a new and ever
changing
world order? Is the answer an expanded NATO, including expanded
membership
and roles? Or the traditional 16 member NATO with a role limited to
military
operations? This project argues for the continued existence of NATO in its
present
form, and outlines recommendations for areas of expansion to the charter.
Thesis
The goal of U.S. policy in the Transatlantic Alliance should be
maintenance
of NATO as a collective defense organization. Center and most
basic
to this goal is the need to continue NATO. As the remaining super power, the
U.S.
must take the lead in setting policy for NATO continuance. The argument for
this
is broken into five sections followed by conclusions. First is a historical
review
of
world circumstances responsible for the creation of the treaty and a cursory
analysis
of those treaty articles pertinent to this discussion. This section also
includes
a limited examination of select organizations existing today whose charters
may
appear to offer duplication of effort within the Atlantic Alliance. The second
section
addresses why the U.S. needs NATO. This is to specifically address issues
facing
the U.S. and the armed forces of the U.S. The third section analyzes the
Partnership
for Peace (PfP) concept, discussing the likelihood (and viability) of full
membership
for all 23 (current) partners. A theory on the PfP's unavoidable doom
as
a vehicle for full NATO membership is included in this section. The fourth
section
focuses on the question of Russia as a partner and/or full member of NATO,
and
whether Russia should be given full NATO membership. The "threat" of
the
future
is the subject of Part Five. Finally, the conclusion summarizes the major
points
of the project, and makes recommendations concerning the nature of NATO
expansion.
Part
I:
Background
The years immediately following World
War II (WWII) were a mixture of
relief,
euphoria, and uncertainty in the international arena. Demobilization was
occurring
on a massive scale in the United States, while Europe struggled to rise
from
the ashes of the years-long conflict. The United Nations Charter was signed in
San
Francisco in 1945, giving initial hope to translation of the war-time alliance
into
a
peacetime permanency.4 The treaties with Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland, Italy, and
Romania
were drafted in the same year, but not signed by representatives of the
Soviet
Union until 1947; difficulties in obtaining final signatures were an indication
of
problems the U.N. has yet to resolve. In 1948, the Foreign Ministers of the
Soviet
Union and the Western powers failed to draft treaties with Germany and
Austria
when they could not agree on Germany's future status; the hopes for
continued
cooperation were dashed as a clear split occurred between East and West.
During the war, Stalin had annexed
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and parts of
Finland,
Romania, Poland, eastern Czechoslovakia, and north-eastern Germany. In
1947,
he started a series of what have been termed "conquests without war"
to fully
overtake
the existing or fledgling governments in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria,
Poland,
and Czechoslovakia, with unsuccessful attempts for similar communist
expansion
in Iran, Turkey, and Greece. By early 1948, Stalin had reinvented
government
with a clearly drawn communist line separating East from West.5 To
counter
Stalin's moves in Greece and Turkey, the Truman Doctrine was enacted to
provide
aid with military and humanitarian assistance. The Marshall Plan followed,
proposing
an economic aid plan for European recovery that also offered monetary
assistance
to the USSR and other countries behind the iron curtain. Stalin, however,
refused
American aid, and forced the satellite countries to do the same. Shortly
thereafter
Stalin established the "Cominform" as a means of coordinating
activities
of
the communist movements. Its members were the leaders of the communist
parties
in the USSR, Poland, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Hungary,
Yugoslavia,
France, Italy, and (later) the Netherlands; the Cominform was the
forerunner
to the Warsaw Pact (with some membership changes).6
In true snowball fashion, and out of
fear of post-recovery German aggression,
the
United Kingdom (U.K.) and France signed the Dunkirk Treaty in 1947. This
treaty
was the suggested model for the "western union" to use to protect
themselves
from
any future threat from Germany and the East. The more appropriate model,
however,
was the Treaty of Rio de Janeiro entered into by the United States and 20
Latin
American countries later that year. This provided for the collective defense of
the
signatories against aggression.7 The 1948 coup d'etat in Czechoslovakia acted
as
a 'pro-western, anti-communist' stimulant for the representatives of Belgium,
France,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and the U.K., who signed the Brussels Treaty
shortly
thereafter. This was the precursor to the North Atlantic Treaty.
The Brussels Treaty provided for the
build-up of a common defense system,
and
strengthening of cultural and economic ties. The key clause of the treaty was
found
in Article IV, which stated that should any of the contracting parties be the
object
of an "armed aggression in Europe", the other signatories to the
Treaty would
afford
the attacked party "all the military aid and assistance in their
power."8 A few
months
later, in June of that year, the Soviet Union started the blockade of Berlin.
That
same month, the U.S. Congress passed the Vandenberg Resolution, which
cleared
constitutional barriers to U.S. participation in such a treaty in one of the
Truman
Administration's smoothest bits of politicking.9 Preliminary talks between
U.S.
representatives and the Brussels Treaty signatories were opened in July 1948.
The
text of the North Atlantic Treaty was published in March 1949, and signed on
April
4, 1949, by the following countries: U.K., France, Belgium, Luxembourg,
Denmark,
Iceland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, the Netherlands, Canada, and the
United
States (Greece and Turkey signed the treaty in 1952, followed by West
Germany
in 195410; Spain became a NATO member in 1982).
It is important to note the significant
change in long-standing U.S. policy to
avoid
what President George Washington long ago termed "entangling
alliances."
The
years following WWII saw the U.S. as signatories on as many as seven formal
treaties
and several informal agreements involving countries of five of the seven
continents
(these numbers do not count the economic agreements, including the
more
recent North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the General
Agreement
on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the newly formed World Trade
Organization
(WTO)).11 Unfortunately, the U.S. record for upholding the inherent
obligations
of these treaties have led some allies to question the level and sincerity
of
U.S. commitment. Indeed, the number of treaties committing U.S. military forces
to
protecting the territorial integrity of so many nations called for a military
of a size
not
seen since the armies of WWII, or was simply a series of gross over-
commitment
on the part of several U.S. administrations. These extensive
commitments
were based in either ignorance or arrogance in assuming challenges to
these
treaties would never occur. It was exactly this question, the sincerity of U.S.
commitment
to Europe, as well as the second issue of adequacy of civilian control
over
NATO military operations, that led to the DeGaulle government decision to
withdraw
from the integrated military structure in 1966.12
Commitment is what differentiates the
North Atlantic Treaty from other
treaties.
Commitment also differentiates collective defense from collective security.
The
North Atlantic Treaty
The North Atlantic Treaty links the
member countries together for "collective
defense"
as defined in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.13 The first three
paragraphs
set the tone for the nature of the alliance, where the parties "...seek to
promote
stability and well being in the North Atlantic area."14
Article 1 stresses the utility of
peaceful settlement of international disputes,
directing
member countries to "refrain in their international relations from the
threat
or
use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United
Nations."
Article 2 stresses the fact that NATO is
more than a military alliance, urging
members
"to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and will
encourage
collaboration between any or all of them."
Articles 4 and 5 provide for the concept
of collective defense, while Article 6
defines
the parameters of an armed attack (as discussed in Articles 4 and 5),
effectively
limiting the scope of the treaty. Specifically, Article 4 states that the
parties
"will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the
territorial
integrity,
political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."
Article
5 contains more specific language, stating "The parties agree that an
armed
attack
against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered
an
attack against them all..." and that members may use "...such action
as it deems
necessary,
including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of
the
North Atlantic area."
Article 6 and its very specific verbiage
was largely dictated by the U.S. in an
attempt
to stay away from the colonial conflicts in which several other of the
remaining
member countries were at the time either embroiled or where the Truman
Administration
thought there was a potential for colonial conflicts.15 While the
colonial
nature of the NATO members has obviously changed, the language of
Article
6 remains as written, and may impact on later decisions for operations
considered
"Out of Area" (OOA), or even on any proposals to expand NATO's
scope
beyond these terms.
Of the remaining articles of the treaty,
Articles 10 and 11 may well come to
play
a significant role in the Partnership for Peace concept (with regard to full
membership
in NATO by the "partner" countries), and further NATO expansion.
Article
10 requires unanimous agreement by the parties to offer NATO membership
to
any other European state, while Article 11 requires treaty ratification by the
prospective
country's constitutional process. Additionally, Article 10 may be
construed
as conditional, offering the possibility of membership to "...any other
European
State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute
to
the security of the North Atlantic area...".
Changes to the Treaty have occurred
through various vehicles over the past
45
years; especially pertinent to this discussion are the Harmel Report (1967),
and
the
New Strategic Concept (1991).
The Harmel Report is also known as the
Report on Future Tasks of the
Alliance.
It recognized changes having occurred in the world since 1949, and the
continuing
relevance of both the political and military functions of the Alliance. It
also
outlines several tasks whose completion were set as goals for the Alliance,
with
the
larger goal of a more stable international environment. Especially significant
in
the
Harmel Report are the proposals for increased military presence in the
Mediterranean
(as a preventative measure against recent expansion of Soviet
activities
in the Middle East), and the proposal for military reductions in both the
East
and West.16
Arguably the most important aspect of
the Harmel Report is the signal its
ratification/publication
sent to member communities (and "the threat") regarding
NATO's
ability to change with changing times. These changing times required the
use
of defense and detente as alliance functions; the Harmel Report solidified the
dual
role of detente in the Alliance. Successful implementation of the tasks listed
in
the
Harmel Report would effectively give new life blood to the (almost) 20 year old
organization
facing the fact that military forces in Europe were not sufficient to hold
Soviet
forces should U.S.S.R. leadership decide the 'plum' Europe offered was too
great
to pass up.17
The New Strategic Concept is another
Harmel Report written for the changes
in
world politics since 1989. According to the New Strategic Concept, "the
Alliance
has always sought to achieve its objectives of safeguarding the security and
territorial
integrity of its members, and establishing a just and lasting peaceful order
in
Europe, through both political and military means."18
Key in the Concept is the requirement to
maintain a military adequate to
provide
for continued collective defense of its members as a deterrent to aggression.
While
the Concept continues to recognize the importance of its military arm as a
deterrent,
the Concept stresses the importance of political dialogue and the
recognition
of the economic, social, and environmental aspects of security and
stability
in the new world. Implications of the New Strategic Concept range from a
very
expanded NATO mission (in terms of addressing economic, social, and
environmental
ills facing the Alliance), to maintenance of the NATO military arm in
Europe
at a time when national fiscal restraints are influencing member governments
to
reduce representation. Nowhere truer than in the U.S., loud calls for the
fabled
"Peace
Dividend" following troop reductions in Europe gave rise to isolationist
inclinations
in dimensions unheard of since the end of WWI.
Perhaps most significant in the New
Strategic Concept is it's recognition that
defense
of members' security interests extends beyond territorial borders. This is a
basic
tenant behind the rationale for continued U.S. troop presence in Europe.
Analysis
of this tenant (and it's implications) occurs following a short discussion of
other
security organizations tied to Europe and NATO.
Other
Organizations19
To understand the implications of NATO
expansion, either in number
of
members or in mission scope, it is imperative to understand the scope of
existing
institutions;
failure to do so will invalidate assumptions concerning resource
availability,
primarily fluids. Key among these organizations in terms of their
interaction
with NATO are the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE),
the European Community (EC), the Western European Union (WEU), and
the
North Atlantic Cooperation Council (see Table 1, following page). In addition
to
these, there are other inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations
whose
agendas are to spread the good news (if you will) concerning the North
Atlantic
Alliance; their duties range from inter-parliamentary links (North Atlantic
Assembly),
to educate and inform the public as to the goals and aims of NATO
(Atlantic
Treaty Association). This section will focus on what NATO terms
"Interlocking
Institutions" rather than the inter- and non-governmental
organizations.20
The Organization on Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) (formerly
the
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, CSCE) was established in
1972
as a process of political consultation which did not establish a permanent
forum
until 1990. The OSCE process was the germination seed of several
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significant
measures designed to advance initiatives in fundamental human
freedoms,
including the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, which also provides
for
notification of major military maneuvers involving more than 25 thousand
troops.
The OSCE was key in drawing some of the Warsaw Pact countries into
human
rights groups (the most successful of its ventures to date), as well as
fostering
cooperation on economic, cultural, and security issues.
The most significant of the OSCE's
accomplishments in the area of security
issues
was the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty of 1992 limiting
conventional
troop strength in the armies of Europe, as well as those of the United
States
stationed in Europe. The Helsinki Follow-up meeting in July 1992 sought to
get
the OSCE directly involved in peacekeeping operations, but was met with
limited
success. Weaknesses in the OSCE include the unwieldiness of its size (53
members),
and what is perceived as a lack of power in the structure of the
organization
(the Secretary General is a public affairs official with virtually no
power),
consisting of civilian monitors and military observers from its member
countries.
While Russia most recently identifies OSCE as the vehicle for European
security,
no military structure or procedures for marshalling national forces under
OSCE
authority currently exists.21
The European Community (EC) (now known
as the European Union (EU))
was
established as an economic entity from the merger of the European Coal and
Steel
Community in 1951 and continues to evolve through a series of economic
treaties
requiring ratification by all member states. The goal of the EU is greater
integration
of the economies of its member states. Toward that end, the EU has
introduced
a customs union which essentially eliminates trade tariffs between
member
countries and establishes a common tariff for non-member countries.22
Additionally,
a European market was created in 1993 (proposed in 1985), allowing
unrestricted
movement of goods, services, people, and money between member
countries.
Beyond the economic issues, the EU has acted in concert with the U.N.
as
peace negotiators in the Geneva Conference on the Former Yugoslavia, while
providing
significant efforts for humanitarian aid (also for the former Yugoslavia).
The
EU is in continuing dialogue with the U.S., particularly concerning
GATT/WTO.
The Western European Union (WEU) evolved
from the Brussels Treaty of
1948
(see Endnote 7) as the Western Union. When the North Atlantic Treaty was
signed,
military responsibilities were transferred to NATO, leaving the WEU the
goals
of economic, social, and cultural collaboration (minus collective
self-defense).
Since
its reactivation in 1984, the WEU goal has been one of common European
defense
identity through cooperation, and a strengthened European 'pillar' in the
North
Atlantic Alliance.23 These goals have been reinforced with the adoption of
the
Platform on European Security Interests, which affirms members' determination
to
strengthen the European piece of NATO, as well as to provide Europe with a
heretofore
unseen security and defense dimension. In addition to ensuring and
coordinating
joint actions during the Iran-Iraq War in 1987, and again during the
Gulf
War in 1991, the WEU has most recently been involved with contributions of
European
forces in the former Yugoslavia. The decision to send forces via the
WEU
was an extremely important step for Europe in terms of their willingness to
act
for European security and defense when the U.S. (specifically) determined it
was
not in their best interests to send combat forces. In fact, the WEU represents
a
Europe-only
option when faced with situations where one or more NATO (and/or
U.N.)
members vote against troop commitment. This is likely to become an
increasingly
important option in facing European scenarios where it is deemed not in
the
best interests of some Alliance members to participate.
In January 1988, France and Germany
formed a joint Franco-German Army
Brigade
consisting of approximately 40,000 troops. Since becoming operational in
1990,
Belgium and Luxembourg have joined the force, with Spain and the
Netherlands
expressing interest in joining. The force is now called the Eurocorps,
and
has the following missions under the control of the WEU: common defense of
allies,
peacekeeping and peace enforcement, and provision of humanitarian aid.24
Late
1992 saw agreements established on the relationship between the Eurocorps
and
the NATO military structure under the Supreme Allied Commander Europe
(SACEUR);
this includes plans for Eurocorps employment under NATO.
The North Atlantic Cooperation Council
(NACC) was established in 1991 to
provide
a bridge between the member countries of NATO and those of the former
Warsaw
Pact. In addition to those countries, all the states of the former U.S.S.R.
are
members, and Finland is an observer; Sweden, Finland, and Austria participate
as
members of the NACC ad hoc group on Cooperation in Peacekeeping.25 The
NACC
exists to facilitate dialogue and cooperation between its member countries
on
such subjects as security, economics, defense conversion issues, and military
education;
it provided the framework for introduction of the Partnership for Peace
(PfP)
program in January 1994. This initiative for increased NATO affiliation is the
subject
of the next section.
Part
II: Why NATO?
This section is designed to answer
specific questions on why NATO is
important
to the United States, and perhaps more importantly, what implications
NATO
continuance may have on the armed forces of the United States.
One
of the most basic reasons for the U.S. to stay the course with NATO in
it's
collective defense role is, quite simply that NATO is a proven deterrent. In
the
forty-plus
years since ratification, the North Atlantic Treaty has provided security
for
Europe very effectively. What the people of the U.S. seem to occasionally
wrestle
with is whether or not security in Europe is necessary for the security of the
United
States. The answer is that the U.S. is irrevocably tied to Europe;
economically,
culturally, and for security.
As mentioned earlier, given the changing
face of world politics, change to
NATO
is inevitable. Those changes have impacted on the U.S. armed forces, and
will
continue to do so. U.S. troop strength in Europe is the lowest since WWII.
Changes
in Europe and in NATO will greatly effect whether or not these low
numbers
are sufficient for the U.S. commitment to collective defense.
The changes to the NATO Charter occuring
via the Harmel Report and the
New
Strategic Concept directly effect U.S. security. Recognizing that security
threats
may come from beyond a country's territorial boundries is not a NATO-only
concept.
Recognition of the threat potential speaks directly to the current National
Security
Strategy and ensuring the armed forces are adequate to meet threats to that
security.
NATO provides a known-quantity deterrent. In a worst case scenario,
NATO
will provide assistance in the form of military commitment as a true
collective
defense organization.
What does all this mean to a future
military commander? It represents
potential
commitment to secure U.S. national interests -- interests which time and
again
have been well beyond the territorial boundaries of the continental United
States.
It means commitment to an organization that could stand between the U.S.
and
security threats capable of destroying a way of life. While somewhat
melodramatic,
this commitment is very much unchanged from that of the Cold War.
The
difference is the identity of the aggressor (or potential aggressor). The U.S.
got
involved
in NATO to ensure the security of Europe following WWII. It needs to
stay
involved in NATO for the security of it's national interests. In other words,
nothing
has changed for the future military commander, except he'll be starting with
less
soldiers than his predecessor did a few years ago. However, given the constant
changes
he'll face, he may end up with quite a few more soldiers, and they won't all
be
from the U.S.
Part
III: Partnership for Peace26
Background
and Basics on the PfP:
The Partnership for Peace (PfP) program
grew out of the surprising collapse
of
the former Soviet Union into not just the five non-Soviet Warsaw Pact countries
and
Russia, but into the twenty-plus former republics (and Russia), all vying for
membership
in NATO.27 The addition of 23 countries to a 16 member alliance is an
altogether
different proposition from the initial thought of adding 6 new members to
that
alliance. The response to the greater-than-anticipated demand for membership
is
the initiative we know as Partnership for Peace. While the Partnership is a
concept
with vision, the unknown factors facing the Alliance make the issue of full
membership
extremely complicated, and subject to significant politicking by both
NATO
members and Partners.28 This discussion on PfP will be limited to current
Partners.
Quite simply, PfP is a way for potential
members (and their respective
parliaments)
to observe NATO members and the organization itself first hand. PfP
provides
both sides the opportunity to observe military cooperation in NATO
exercises,
while educating perspective members on what is expected of NATO
members.
The PfP initiative is a way for the
countries of Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE)
desiring affiliation with the Alliance (but perhaps lacking the fiscal or
governmental
requirements for full membership) to establish a relationship short of
actual
membership. The benefit to them in joining as partners is enhanced security
and
stability in Europe and the NACC area ( at least theoretically). Partnership
objectives
include the following29:
- Facilitation of transparency in
national defence planning and budgeting processes;
- Ensuring democratic control of defence
forces;
- Maintenance of the capability and
readiness to contribute to operations under authority
of
the UN and/or the responsibility of the CSCE (now OSCE) (subject to
constitutional
considerations);
- Development of cooperative military
relations with NATO, for the purpose of joint
planning,
training and exercises in order to strengthen their ability to undertake
missions in the
fields
of peacekeeping, search and rescue, humanitarian operations, and others as
later agreed;
- Development of forces (over the long
term) that are better able to operate with those of
the
members of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Acceptance as a partner starts with
signature on the PfP Framework
documentation
by each participant. To date, 23 countries have elected to become
partners.
Signature reaffirms the country's commitment to the Helsinki Final Act
and
all subsequent OSCE (formerly CSCE) documents, the fulfillment of all
disarmament
and arms control obligations previously agreed upon, and their
commitment
to the obligations of the Charter of the U.N. (refraining from the threat
or
use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any
state,
to
respect existing borders, and to settle disputes by peaceful means).30
Partnership
"buys"
a country "consultation" with NATO for any partner that perceives a
direct
threat
to its territorial integrity, political independence, or security. Partnership
provides
neither NATO membership, nor the collective defense that full membership
offers.
Nor does becoming a partner guarantee
NATO membership at a future date.
In
fact, one of the common trends in sources on the subject is to suggest PfP is a
means
of buying time for the NATO members until the question of permanent
membership
may be addressed. This issue speaks directly to the credibility of the
program,
calling into question the benefits of partnership and the need to address
permanent
membership status. Details on the mechanics of partnership are
necessary
before analyzing the program as a means for eventual NATO
membership.
The PfP initiative places NATO on a large
cafeteria menu, allowing the
customer
(partner) to choose those items he wishes or is able to purchase.
Following
signature on the Framework Document, each partner submits a
Presentation
Document to NATO, indicating the degree of participation they
anticipate
(or desire). For example, Country X may wish to participate in the joint
planning
and training of a military exercise, without actual troop participation (to
start
with). Country X may also indicate (in the Presentation Document) what steps
they
are going to take towards achieving the political goals of the Partnership, as
well
as what assets will be made available by the partner (Country X) for
partnership
activities. Significant in the partnership is the requirement for Country
X
to then fund whatever degree of participation they signed up for, and their
agreement
to "endeavor to share the burdens of mounting exercises in which they
take
part."31
PfP
as a Vehicle for NATO Membership:
Essentially, anyone who wants to join
may do so, and at the level of
participation
they believe appropriate for their country, assuming fiscal availability.
At
this point, the partnership concept complications become apparent. The big
question
is "Who gets to be a NATO member?". Enter Article 10 of the NATO
Treaty
referred to earlier; expansion of NATO "for other European states in a
position
to further the principles of the Treaty and to contribute to the security of
the
North
Atlantic area". Two arguments come to mind in addressing the membership
question.
Each assumes the goal of adding new members is to add to the security of
the
Alliance. First, as pointed out in articles concerning the former Warsaw Pact
countries
and Russia, their militaries are a shadow of their former selves, and their
ability
to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area as a NATO member
may
be questionable (see Table 2, following page). The second argument is that
these
countries do significantly contribute to the security of greater Europe just by
being
partners. Both arguments question the need to offer full NATO membership.
Articles 10 and 11 requires unanimous
agreement by the parties and
ratification
by respective governments before offering membership. To date, the 16
Click
here to view image
members
do not have approval from their respective governments to add any of the
Partners
as full members. However, even assuming that approval for a moment,
addition
of new members one at a time may prove increasingly difficult. Again, the
best
course of action for expanding NATO is to limit the number of full members so
as
to avoid creation of a collective security organization. If all members have
veto
power,
stalemates will occur as countries form pacts within the Alliance to further
their
own agendas.
Membership
Expansion:
Assuming NATO decides to expand, the
method of expansion will prove a
very
complex issue. There are three obvious options concerning expansion. First,
do
not expand. Second, expand one country at a time on a case by case basis.
Third,
open initial membership to the visegrad four, Poland, Hungary, The Czech
Republic,
and Slovakia. This could be accomplished either one at a time, or as an
"open
season" for these specific members (recognizing their lack of freedom of
will
in
their association with the former Soviet Union). Either way this third option
is
implemented,
the remaining 19 Partners would be handled separately on a case-by-
case
basis.
A theory for consideration is this:
unless NATO opens a one-time "open
season"
for all the partners to join as full members, NATO (as an entity) will itself
become
a divisive issue between new members and "wanna-be member" partners
by
creating
a system that Richard Nixon referred to as "haves" and "have nots".32
In
truth,
the 'haves' and 'have nots' already exist. Many of the 23 Partners are not in a
position
to finance NATO membership. In fact, there are indications in the
Republican
Congress of a desire for the U.S. to assist certain countries with their
membership
funding.33
Before another dollar is added to the
deficit, Alliance members need to ask
themselves
(and their respective governments, as currently required in the Charter)
if
a NATO of expanded membership is good for NATO; whether an expanded
NATO
will be able to continue to provide the security it has to this point? The
answer
is that it is not likely to be able to provide that security. In fact, NATO
membership
expanded to the scope of the PfP will likely doom the Alliance. It may
well
continue to function, but only as a 'paper tiger', becoming a collective
security
organization
likely to fail.
From a non-NATO standpoint, the question
of expansion continues to provide
a
source of contention. Perhaps the most public source of contention concerns
membership
of the visegrad four. On one hand, membership for the four leaves a
Baltic
"island" between NATO members and Russia (see Map, next page). This
Click
here to view image
represents
a considerable weakness in terms of security. On the other hand, Poland
is
fully ready for membership now, while Slovakia is not (without assistance).
Additionally,
Poland's ability to meet NATO membership criteria now has led to
increasing
pressure on NATO members. A major driver in the expansion debate
revolves
around Poland as a full member, able to fill the "security vacuum" in
the
East
between NATO members and Russia.34 The other, significantly "public"
source
of
contention in the expansion question is Russia's membership. The discussion on
Russia's
part in the expansion is in the next section.
Part
IV: Russia
Several months after Russia signed the
PfP framework document, members of
their
government threatened to pull out of PfP. The Clinton Administration made
what
Republican Senator Robert Dole continually characterizes as a "misguided
devotion
to a Russia-first policy" move to soothe the ruffled feathers and keep
Russia
in PfP.35 Russia desires special treatment from Alliance members, with the
ultimate
goal of full NATO membership. Failing that, Russia hopes to diminish
NATO's
role by making use of other (existing) security organizations.36 The initial
invitation
for PfP status was extended in an attempt to appease Russia's indications
of
insecurity as the former Soviet Bloc Republics vied for NATO membership
themselves,
apparently willing to leave Russia adrift. The question of Russia as a
full
NATO partner will be one of the toughest facing NATO members. Russia
should
not receive full NATO membership for the reasons outlined below.
First and foremost, inclusion of Russia
in NATO will effectively transform
NATO
from a collective defense organization to that of collective security. Josef
Joffe
defines collective security simply: everyone is a member of the system, and
there
are no predetermined aggressors.37 Addition of Russia to NATO will add the
last,
largest, and most formidable former aggressor to the alliance. This will
transform
the previously successful alliance based on collective defense into a
collective
security organization. As a collective security organization, NATO will
be
doomed as an alliance, as have all other collective security organizations
since
Britain
and France watched Mussolini annex their fellow-alliance member Abyssinia
in
1936.32 Collective security alliances fail because they rely on countries to
place
alliance
interests before national interests. It could prove an extremely costly error
to
assume NATO would fare any differently. Collective defense has historically
been
the key to NATO's unprecedented success, and is key to any future
transatlantic
alliance.
Next of these reasons is Russia's well
documented, ongoing economic
struggle.
As outlined earlier, one of the PfP objectives is "facilitation of
transparency
in national defense planning and budgeting processes". Russia's
inability
to change their economic outlook will not meet the PfP objectives
concerning
the defense budgeting processes. To
date, Russia has been unable to
join
other European countries (and other NATO members) as a market economy.39
They
are facing large scale corruption of officials at all levels. Three journalists
(speaking
out against corruption), six parliament members and many other
'innocents'
have been brutally murdered in a crime wave reminiscent of Chicago in
the
1930's.40 Runaway inflation
working-aged Russians never saw in the old Soviet
Union
plagues their economy. In sum, Russia
is not poised for the changes
necessary
to bring them in line to compete economically with a united Europe under
the
EC; they may well be overwhelmed by the
economic potential of the United
States,
Mexico, and Canada united by NAFTA.
Additionally, Russia's crippled
economy
will eventually effect their ability to fund their military; this will directly
effect
military readiness, failing government intervention. Indeed, President Yeltsin
has
already announced increases in military funding to "correct the problems
of
Chechnya".41 Additionally, the conflict in Chechnya must
cause Alliance members
to
ask themselves who is "in control" of the Russian military. The PfP objective is
democratic
control of the military; incidents in
Chechnya question civilian control of
the
Russian military.
Economic pressure is creating the
next reason to question full NATO
membership
for Russia. Although deemed by Russia to be "an internal problem",
Chechnya
has fueled the concern of growing nationalism. As mentioned earlier, the
harsh
realities non-communist Russia faces in the nineties pushes them closer to
nationalism.
Ultra-nationalists like Zhirinovsky will continue to prey on the
weaknesses
created by a government unable, and perhaps unwilling, to make the
bard
decisions to complete the make-over of Russia. The question then becomes
whether
a Russia led by such a personality could or would return to the days of an
aggressive
Soviet Union without, perhaps, the communist overtone. Would NATO
membership
be enough to stop aggressive tendencies of an economically crippled
Russia
led by a nationalist who thinks the U.S. should give back Alaska, and that
Hitler's
racial policies (favoring dominance of Russians vice Germans) may be
valid?
The fourth reason to question Russia's
full membership to NATO is security.
Theoretically,
security is the Alliance benefit of full membership for Russia.
However,
collective defense will require NATO to defend the borders of Russia,
including
that with China, and save for the Caspian Sea, the border with Iran. These
are
responsibilities NATO should not take on, at least in the near future. Neither
the
present
member countries of NATO, nor the partners, have the resources or the
political
support of their respective populace to finance the kind of NATO forces
Russia's
borders would require for protection.
Realistically however, Iran and China
are probably not a threat to the Russian
border
in terms of a large scale armed conflict. However, regional security may
well
be an issue from an economic standpoint, depending on China's reaction to
Russia's
NATO membership. The U.S. (as a NATO member) should not risk
alienating
its largest trading partner in an attempt to placate Russia's security
concerns
with NATO membership. Nor should the U.S. risk escalating tensions
with
North Korea during what may be referred to as North Korea's current 'political
identity
crisis'. The bottom line is that the
political and economic instability in
Russia,
and in the countries that border Russia, make NATO membership a risk for
the
Alliance members.
One of the options facing NATO is expansion of the Charter, including
actions
influencing the social and/or economic aspect of their member countries (or
influencing
those countries threatening the security of the member countries). Given
the
larger-than-life example of the current economic crisis that is Russia, it is
unlikely
that NATO actions could influence the Russian government towards
economic
reform. More basically, it is unlikely that Alliance members could reach a
consensus
on actions to take to do so.
On a final note concerning Russia; NATO
membership for Russia will require
significant
change. Failing change in NATO member veto authority, Russia will not
be
able to become a member. The alternative to changing veto authority is
political
change
to sway those countries against Russia's membership in NATO.42
Part
IV: The New "Threat"
Before theorizing on the new
"threat" facing the Alliance, it is important to
briefly
discuss the merits of NATO membership. The big plum of NATO
membership
is two-fold. First, being a member of 'the' organization in Europe may
appeal
to some countries after fifty years of being denied membership because of
geographical
and (sometimes) ideological ties with the "other" superpower during
the
Cold War. NATO membership represents Europe, where NATO members are
European.
Ties to Europe for countries whose former European affiliation was
severed
by the Iron Curtain is extremely important.
The more important issues concerning
NATO membership are those
regarding
collective defense and economic stability. Again, NATO was established
to
ensure the security of Europe at a time when the Soviet Union was considered a
significant
threat to that security -- although no threat was ever identified.
Admittedly,
there are probably some concerned citizens at the old borders of the
iron
curtain who have spent the majority of their lives in fear of a Soviet
takeover;
they
are not likely to change their attitude after only a handful of years seeing
communism
in collapse. Realistically, however, it is unlikely that the old regime
will
seize power overnight without sufficient warning to Alliance members of their
return
to the "evil empire". Additionally, some of the current Partners seek
full
membership
for reasons other than security. These reasons include enhancing their
own
internal stability, and speedier adoption of democratic culture.43
In a personal interview with Dr. William
Johnsen, he likened the change in
threat
to going from one large known to lots of little unknowns.44 I likened it to
mercury;
when a drop splits, it forms hundreds of smaller, identical drops virtually
indistinguishable
from the original in their unbelievable mobility and utter
unpredictability.
Alliance members are not likely to be faced with an armed conflict
on
the scale of either world war. However, there are enough unknown factions
facing
the Alliance to assure its continuance. The weapons of these factions most
threatening
to NATO are terrorism, political instability, and economic uncertainty.
Looking at terrorism first, it is
important to understand enough of the nature
of
terrorism to know there is almost as much fear for the possibility of the act
as
there
is in the act itself. As the sole remaining super power (but not the sole
remaining
nuclear power), the U.S. and her allies (therefore the Alliance) need to
recognize
their vulnerabilities. Odd as it may seem, Tom Clancy's recent made-for-
television
movie Ops Center illustrated this quite readily. The story-line revolved
around
the theft of nuclear warheads from Russia by former KGB officers selling
the
warheads to the highest bidder. The possibilities in terms of vulnerable
targets
are
virtually unlimited.
Unfortunately, there is no shortage of
current hot spots of political unrest and
violence.
The Spring months are considered prime fighting time by the Muslim,
Croatian,
and Serbian armies in the former Yugoslavia. Some analysts think the
move
to kick out the U.N. peacekeepers signals the imminent end to the fragile
cease-fire.45
Algeria is on the brink of civil war;
Islamic fundamentalists clashing with the
government
in power has taken 40 thousand lives and the toll continues to climb.
The
threat to Alliance members is the wave of refugees across the Mediterranean to
Europe
as violence escalates.46
According to recent news accounts, Yasar
Arafat's control over the Palestine
Liberation
Organization (PLO) is diminishing. A new generation of extremists are
waiting
for opportunities to assume control. If the right scenario plays out, Israel
may
be threatened by a resurgence in violence against her. The U.S., with our
known
relationship to Israel, could be targeted as well.47 No one should assume
attacks
of this nature would be limited to the continental U.S. (or to just the U.S.).
Despite a large deficit, China appears
to be increasing their military
spending
by as much as 21%.48 This worries some of China's neighbors, who are
concerned
about the possibility of China using the military option to settle the
dispute
over ownership of some of the islands off the Chinese mainland (The
Spratleys).49
The message in this incomplete list of
world events is simple. Political and
economic
instability are the threats facing the NATO Alliance. Sources for these
threats
are only limited by the number of countries in the world today and the
cultural,
social, religious, economic, and political differences between the people
that
populate them.
Conclusions
Many of the countries potentially
effected by events previously outlined (or
the
threat of these events) are allies of NATO members or NATO members
themselves.
Historically, NATO has not entered in the fray for Out of Area (OOA)
operations.
The political and economic instability existing in countries across the
world,
until recently, might have indicated necessity for change in NATO policy
away
from the limiting verbiage of Article 6.
Most recent efforts to diffuse potential
threats to the security of Europe
include
extension of invitations for four North African countries and Israel to
become
Partners in PfP.50 These invitations clearly identify the threat (Islamic
fundamentalism)
Willy Claes (Secretary General of NATO) considers "at least as
dangerous
as communism was."51 Key in this identification is a move to change the
integral
face of NATO. It represents an expansion clearly beyond the original
Charter.
This is true whether or not all the invitations are accepted, or whether full
membership
is ever offered. Such an expansion effectively expands the NATO area
of
operations into what was previously considered "out of area." In
fact, U.S.
insistence
on inclusion of Israel effectively expands the area of influence to the
entire
Middle East. NATO has expanded well beyond the dreams of the initial
treaty
concept.
More than ever, alliance members must
move cautiously in this expansion,
regardless
of the final full member end-state. This is especially true for the question
of
full membership. Expansion of full NATO membership for these potential new
partners
is an exponential expansion of the complexity discussed earlier regarding
the
European partners.
Expanding NATO's 'sphere of influence'
is a natural evolution. The world is
shrinking.
More than ever, events in countries far from European borders will effect
the
security as well as the political and economic stability of Europe (and her
allies).
The
U.S. is inextricably tied to this increase in NATO's sphere of influence. And
we
should not wish it otherwise.
Since before the start of WWI, our
collective well-being has been tied to
Europe
through the Transatlantic Alliance (in spite of attempts to bury our
collective
heads in the sand during the inter-war years). Reluctant though we were
initially
to assume the mantle of leadership, it is our responsibility, as a world
leader,
to recognize the continuing importance of the North Atlantic Treaty. It is
our
responsibility to foster and nurture its continuance. We need to do this not
because
Europe needs us, but because we need Europe. As stated earlier, the world
is
shrinking. What we face are diminishing resources for an increasing population
in
economic
markets increasingly reliant on trade with partners who may not have
always
been on "our side".
The U.S. needs to take the lead on
setting (or influencing) policy for the
future
of NATO. Isolationism or shirking our responsibilities as a world power will
prevent
us from influencing our own destiny to continue as a world power. Key to
NATO's
success (and our (U.S.) ability to influence Europe) is expansion. I
advocate
expansion for the purpose of extending the umbrella of collective defense
through
adoption by PfP members of democratic cultures and governments. This
does
not necessarily mean full membership.
NATO must guard against so great an
expansion as to dilute (and possibly
destroy)
its effectiveness as a collective defense organization. Again, the U.S. must
take
the lead here. The enemy is collective security. Its weapons are political and
economic
instability in countries capable of influencing Alliance security.
Collective
security's insidious nature will lull member countries into immobility until
covert
and overt sub-alliances destroy NATO from within. The key is commitment.
The 'consultation' offered by PfP,
though not offering full NATO membership
and
the collective defense that buys, has the potential to be as effective as full
membership.
The necessary ingredient is commitment. When a partner's territorial
integrity
is threatened, consultation must have some teeth in it and backbone behind
it.
Without something to back it up, consultation will prove as meaningless as some
U.N.
sanctions. This, in turn, would leave the partner susceptible to a political
campaign
by the aggressor designed to isolate the partner on the world stage.
Without
moving one soldier, the aggressor could then conquer the isolated partner.
There are numerous benefits to NATO in
extending partnership without
changing
membership. First, NATO maintains its integrity without losing any vote
value.
In other words, there is no dilution in its power. Critics will again cite
creation
of Richard Nixon's "haves" and "have nots". Unfortunately,
the cost of
developing
a collective security organization at the cost of the collective defense
organization
would be more than any one of the member (or nonmember) countries
could
afford.
Another benefit to extending the partnership
without changing the
membership
is fiscal. As discussed earlier (and as depicted in Table 2-for Europe
only),
many partners are not in a position to afford NATO membership in terms of
providing
a military force able to meet Alliance readiness standards. Assisting these
countries
in 'purchasing' their memberships will prove a substantial financial burden
for
NATO members able to undertake banker duties. Of the current 23 partners,
very
few have militaries able to meet Alliance standards. Of the five possible new
members,
only Israel and (arguably) Egypt could field militaries able to meet NATO
standards.52
The final argument against full
membership for the partners (including the
possible
partners) is security. Maintaining only the current members shows non-
partner
countries (i.e., China) the non-threatening nature of the Alliance.
For the immediate future, NATO should
remain structurally unchanged. PfP
should
be the vehicle for security expansion without membership expansion. U.S.
policy
regarding NATO must be supportive, striving for Alliance continuance in this
expanded
version. The threat catalyzing creation of the Alliance has changed its
identity,
but it remains, and is at least as threatening as the original.
Endnotes
1Martin
Sieff, "NATO Growth Could Aid Russian Ultranationalists", Washington
Times,
February
7, 1994, p.A1.
2
Irving Kristol, "Who Now Cares About NATO", Wall Street Journal,
February 6,1995, p. 12.
3
NATO Facts and Figures, Brussels, 1989; North Atlantic Treaty Organization, New
Strategic
Concept,
downloaded from NATO Gopher, November 1994.
4
Poland was not represented when the United Nations Charter was signed because
the
governments
of the Soviet Union and the Western powers could not decide on the composition
of
a
provisional government. NATO Facts and Figures, Brussels, 1989, p. 4.
5
Attempts to establish de facto governments in some of these countries through
the United
Nations
resulted in successive vetoes by the Soviet Union. NATO Facts and Figures, p.5.
6
The Warsaw Treaty was concluded in 1955 with the intention of being in answer
to the Paris
Agreements,
which (among other things) invited West Germany to participate in the North
Atlantic
Treaty. NATO Facts and Figures, p.46.
7
NATO Facts and Figures, p.9.
8
The Brussels Treaty was also the origination of the Western Union which, in
1954, following
West
German membership in NATO, became the Western European Union (WEU). NATO Facts
and
Figures, p.10, 38; North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Interlocking
Institutions, downloaded
from
NATO Gopher, November 1994.
9Stanley
R. Sloan, NATO's Future Toward a New Transatlantic Bargain, p.5.
10
Initially there was considerable resistance (especially) from France about West
Germany
becoming
a NATO member; France voted to allow West German membership in 1954 following
what
was considered the 'catastrophic' circumstances of the conflict in Korea and
the resulting
need
to solidify the alliance. NATO Facts and Figures, p.38; Sloan, NATO's Future
Toward a
New
Transatlantic Bargain, p.7-12.
11
Alan Sabrosky, Alliances in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1988, p.7.
12
William T. Johnsen, and Thomas-Durell Young, Parameters, "France and NATO:
The Image
and
the Reality", 1994, p.76;Sloan, NATO's Future Toward a New Transatlantic
Bargain, p.22,
35;
NATO Facts and Figures, p.500.
13
NATO Handbook, Brussels, 1992, p.3;NATO Facts and Figures, p.376.
14
NATO Handbook, p. 13; NATO Facts and Figures, p.376.
15
The geographies of Article 6 of the treaty have been changed to reflect both
the accessions of
Greece,
Turkey, West Germany, and Spain, and voidance of the term "Algerian
Departments of
France"
upon Algeria's independence in 1962; Calleo, David P., Beyond American
Hegemony,
1987,
p.21.
16
NATO Facts and Figures, p.73.
17
This is not to say the forces were previously considered adequate. Rather, they
were
considered
"of sufficient strength to make it impossible for an aggressor to achieve
a quick and
easy
victory." Secretary of Defense Acheson, Bulletin XXI, August 8, 1949, p.
193.
18
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, New Strategic Concept, downloaded from NATO
Gopher,
November
1994; Note: at the time of ratification, the Soviet Union was still intact.
19
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Interlocking Institutions, downloaded from
NATO
Gopher,
November 1994.
20
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Interlocking Institutions, downloaded from
NATO
Gopher,
November 1994.
21
Bill Gertz, "Russia Rebuffs U.S. on Reactor Sales to Iran",
Washington Times, April 4, 1994, p.
A1
and A20.
22
When a U.S. citizen departs Germany after having visited France and Austria,
the customs
tariffs
imposed are collected at the point of departure from the European continent,
allowing
reimbursement
for taxes collected at the point of purchase, regardless of country. North
Atlantic
Treaty
Organization, Interlocking Institutions, downloaded from NATO Gopher, November
1994.
23
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Interlocking Institutions, downloaded from
NATO
Gopher,
November 1994.
24
While the Franco-German Brigade has been operational since 1990, the Eurocorps
will not
become
operational (as the Eurocorps) until later this year. Divisional size elements
have been
identified
for possible future Eurocorps assignment. North Atlantic Treaty Organization,
The
European
Security and Defence Identity, Brussels, June 1994.
25
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, The North Atlantic Cooperation Council,
Brussels, July
1994.
26
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Partnership for Peace, Brussels, June 1994.
27
Jeffrey Simon, "Partnership for Peace", Joint Forces Quarterly,
Summer 94, p.36.
28
Dana Priest, "Not all Partners Will Join NATO, Perry Concedes",
Washington Post, February
9,
1995, p.A26.
29
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Partnership for Peace, Brussels, June 1994.
30
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Partnership for Peace, Brussels, June 1994.
31
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Partnership for Peace, Brussels, June 1994.
32
Richard Nixon, Beyond Peace, p.
33
Dana Priest, "Not all Partners Will Join NATO, Perry Concedes"
Washington Post, February
9,
1995, p.A26.
34
Martin Sieff, "Kohl's Outreach to Poland May Aid it's NATO Dream",
Washington Post,
April
6, 1995, p.A13.
35
Paul Bedard, "Clinton Hammers GOP Over 'Isolationist' Stance",
Washington Post, March 2,
1995,
p.A1.
36
Gertz, p. A1 and A20.
37
Josef Joffe, Survival, "Collective Security and the Future of
Europe", Summer 1992, p.37.
38
Josef Joffe, Survival, "Collective Security and the Future of
Europe", Summer 1992, p.37.
39
Dietrich Genschel, "Russia and a Changing Europe", Joint Forces
Quarterly, Summer 94, p.25;
It
is extremely unlikely that these economic struggles will prevent Russia from
affording the
NATO
membership 'dues' (to which funding for participation in NATO exercises and as
part of
the
security forces may be attributed).
40
NBC Nightly News, March 2, 1995; Geoffrey York, "Murder of Legislator
Shows Russia is
Losing
War on Crime", Washington Post, February 5, 1995.
41
It is important not to take this as an opportunity to underestimate the
capabilities of the Russian
Army
(Chechnya has been a leaning experience for an army not accustomed to low
intensity
conflict).
They are in the midst of comprehensive reform including troop withdrawals (and
reductions)
from countries of the former Soviet Union, and morale suffers. However, the
army of
the
former Soviet Union is still very capable. Genschel, p.27-30.
42
Kori Schake, Series of interviews, October 1994 - April 1995; 1994 White Paper
on the
Security
of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Situation and Future of the
Bundeswehr",
P.51-62.
43
Genschel, p.32.
44
William T. Johnsen, telephone conversation, February 9, 1995.
45
Tyler Marshall, "In Bosnia, Spring is the War Season", Los Angeles
Times, March 6, 1995,
p.3.
46
"Algeria, and the Islamic Challenge", New York Times, March 6, 1995,
p. 14.
47
Bombing of the World Trade Center by extremists two years ago attests to U.S.
vulnerability to
terrorist
attacks.
48
Richard Fisher, "Ignoring China's Mischief at Sea", Washington Times,
March 5, 1995, p.A17;
AP
Wire Service, "China Pours Cash into Military", Early Bird, March 6,
1995, p.20.
49
AP Wire Service, "China Pours Cash into Military", Early Bird, March
6, 1995, p.20.
50
Martin Sieff "NATO looks south to secure partners, block new
threats", Washington Times,
March
9, 1995, p.A15; the 4 North African countries include Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt,
Mauritania.
51
Sieff, "NATO looks south to secure partners, block new threats",
p.A15.
52
U.S. contributions to both Israeli and Egyptian militaries are what would
enable them to meet
the
NATO standard.
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Table of
Graphics
Table
1:
Interlocking Institutions 14
Table
2:
Drawdown of East European Armies 25
Map:
European Union 28
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