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Military

Korea-Alliance In Transition
CSC 1989
SUBJECT AREA - National Military Strategy
Author Major Larry D. Beaver
                      EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TITLE: KOREA-ALLIANCE IN TRANSITION
I.  Purpose:  To analyze the U.S.-R.O.K. relationship in light of
growing  Korean  nationalism   and   capabilities   to  determine
adaptations which may be required in the future.
II. Problem:  There is a growing anti-American movement in South
Korea.  It is largely  composed  of  younger  individuals  but is
spurred  throughout  the  populace  by a swelling national pride.
South Korea is one of the worlds economic powers and is becoming
a military  power in Northeast Asia.  On the other hand, the U.S.
is  experiencing  a  shrinking  defense  budget  and  is  rapidly
approaching difficult economic times.  It is time for a change in
the alliance on the Korean peninsula.  It may soon be demanded by
both parties in the bilateral relationship.
III.   Data:   Korea is of great importance.  America must retain
South Korean loyalties  to  the  western  world.    Its strategic
military, geographic,  and economic  characteristics are of great
significance to the west.  Koreans are seeking  greater influence
and command  over their  armed forces  in peacetime  as well as a
self-sufficient military capability.   Nuclear sensitivities have
surfaced- and  the South  Koreans are desiring a greater impact in
the control and use of nuclear weapons in  a conflict.   Further,
Koreans are  questioning what  the American policy of "horizontal
escalation" will mean  for  them  in  a  global  conflict.   Then
ultimately  a  large  and  growing  segment  of the population is
requesting the reduction and final withdrawal of American troops.
IV.  Conclusion:  The Korean  alliance  is  maturing.    Korea is
ready to  assume a position of strength.  America and Soutn Korea
must adapt  their relationship  to accommodate  this new ability.
The alliance  is ready  to stand  side-by-side and not one behind
the other.
V.  Recommendation:  The U.S.  should modify  the Combined Forces
Command structure  to allow  Korean control  of their military at
least in peacetime.  The Americans should include  the Koreans in
policy concerning deployment and employment of nuclear weapons in
a peninsular conflict.  The implications of our national strategy
must be  discussed with  the Koreans as to what we expect of them
and they of us.  Finally, given certain conditions, the reduction
and withdrawal of American troops bust be considered.
                   KOREA-ALLIANCE IN TRANSITION
                             OUTLINE
Thesis Statement.  With growing economic and military capability,
South Korea is ready  and able  to assume  greater responsibility
for its  defense.   In light  of the Republic of Korea's  growing
nationalistic pride and  fervor,  the  U.S.-R.O.K.  alliance must
adapt to accommodate this maturing Northeast Asian partner.
I.   An Alliance Requiring Change
     A.  Korean Viewpoint
     B. American Viewpoint
II.  The Strategic Importance of Korea
     A.  Geographically
     B.  Politically
     C.  Economically
     D.  Militarily
III.  The Rise of Korean Nationalism and Adaptations
     A.   The CFC Military Command Structure
     B.   Nuclear Weapons Policy
     C.   U.S. Maritime Strategy Implications
     D.  Reduction of U.S. Forces in Korea
                    KOREA-ALLIANCE IN TRANSITION
     It has been over 35 years since the cessation of hostilities
on the Korean peninsula.  Yet, American soldiers and airmen still
occupy wartime  positions and  stand a wartime footing ever alert
to the danger  of  a  lightning  war  being  precipitated  by the
Democratic Peoples  Republic of  Korea (DPRK,  North) against the
Republic of Korea (ROK, South).  Many young  Koreans and American
taxpayers are beginning to question-the necessity of the American
presence.  Two passages reflect the  emphasis of  these concerns.
The first provides insight to the Korean perspective.
          To a  considerable extent  American attitudes, behavior
     and policy have not kept pace  with  the  growth  of  South
     Korea's power.   They still reflect their origins in an era
     when Korea was weak  and undeveloped.   Yet  the R.O.K.  is
     already at the point where it could achieve military
     superiority on  the Korean peninsula if it wished to do so,
     and its economic drive has distinguished  it as  a foremost
     exemplar  of  rapid  development.    But  Americans have not
     absorbed these changes in South Korea's strength and its new
     sense  of  self-importance,  changes  that  will necessarily
     affect the U.S. role and position in Korea. (8:1038)
The second develops the more pragmatic view of the Americans.
          Whatever  may be the benefits of the Korean  alliance to
     the United States, the costs are considerable--economically,
     militarily, and politically.   In economic  terms, the costs
     of  maintaining  U.S.  forces  on  the  K.orean peninsula are
     substantial, despite large sutsidies from South  Korea.  The
     direct  cost  of  maintaining  U.S. troops in Korea in 1984,
     excluding weapons, equipment, plant, and reinforcements, was
     estimated  at  $  2  billion.    Total  costs  of the Korean
commitment are  likely  to  be  much  greater.    U.S. Asian
     deployments, of  which the  Korean contingent is the largest
     component, are placed at $  47  billion.    In  a  period of
     fiscal austerity,  pressures to reduce the overseas military
     burden are building in Congress, and will probably continue.
     (9:86)
     It must  be generally  accepted that  the Korea  of today is
indeed a far cry from the Korea of the 195O's.  It  has become an
economic  giant  and  a  significant  military power in Northeast
Asia.  There is  a rising  swell of  national pride  within South
Korea with its attendant expectations and problems.  Too, America
must recognize and adapt to the reality of the world as it exists
today accommodating both the burgeoning of Korean nationalism and
the fiscal restraints brought on by economic austerity.
     America's role in Korea  is  changing,  and  it  must.   The
peninsula of  Korea and the foothold that South Korea occupies is
of vital strategic  import  to  American  interests  in Northeast
Asia.   If the United States is to continue its long tradition of
close military, economic, and  political  cooperation  with South
Korea  then  America  must  no  longer  fear  the  rise of Korean
nationalism but  must  come  to  understand  it  and  develop new
attitudes and means of dealing with this most valued ally.
     Just  as  Berlin  is  a  focal  point  in  Europe  where the
interests of great powers  meet,  Korea  is  the  focal  point in
Northeast Asia  where the  world's four great powers paths cross.
South Korea  has come  to present  the symbol  of where communism
stops and  capitalism begins    It's  strategic importance to the
United  States   is  inestimable.     The   Korean  peninsula  is
geographically,   politically,   economically,   and   militarily
significant to American interests.
     Our foreign policy in East Asia is focused on Japan  and its.
gateway to the continent--Korea.  Located in the heart of the Far
East, the peninsula of  Korea is  of great  strategic importance.
Extending  southward  from  Manchuria  and  the  Union  of Soviet
Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.), it is bounded on the north by the
Yalu and Tumen rivers.  The peninsula is bordered by three bodies
of water:  in the south by the Korea-Strait,  in the  west by the
Yellow Sea, and in the east by the Sea of Japan. (10:457)
     The  Korean   peninsula  is  966  kilometers  long  and  217
kilometers wide.   The  eastern  half  is  covered  by  a rugged,
largely unpopulated  mountain range.   On  the west  coast lies a
coastal  plain  containing  most  of  the   agriculture  and  the
population.    The  northern  portion  has  most  of  the natural
resources.  Coal and ore mines  have undergone  heavy development
during the  past eighty  years.  The South has traditionally been
the breadbasket, with 22% of the arable land and therefore farmed
intensively.   There are  very few  good ports on the east coast.
The south and west coasts are much better  off as  they support a
large fishing and maritime shipbuilding industry. (7:190)
     On  the  grander  strategic  scale,  Korea has a significant
geographic importance (Ref. Fig. 1).  In the sea it lies astride
the critical  Korean Strait  that forms a choke point for a major
sea lane that travels from Vladivostok  all the  way to Southeast
Asia.   Further, the Korean peninsula is a classic invasion route
to Japan and to some degree presently serves as a forward defense
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shield to  create a  more secure Japan. (12: 14l)  It is a "dagger
pointed at the heart  of  Japan."      Considering  John Keenan's
global strategy  of "containment"  for the communist world, Korea
is a  frontline state.   It  stands toe-to-toe  with arguably the
most aggressive communist dictatorship in the world.  South Korea
also provides  the only  military installations  available to the
United States in Northeast Asia providing us a strategic foothold
on the Asian continent during conflict.
     Bounded on the north  by the  Peoples Republic  of China and
the Soviet  Union and only thirty miles from the closest Japanese
island, the Korean peninsula is the one area  where the interests
of the  four great  powers in  Asia (the  U.S., the U.S.S.R., the
P.R.C., and  Japan)  converge.  (13:1)    The  key  to preserving
Japan's independence,  our most vital Northeast Asian ally, rests
in the survival of a free South Korea.  This  delicate balance is
dependent upon  U.S. support  and participation in the defense of
the Republic of Korea.
     For economic and  nationalist  reasons,  both  Koreas desire
reunification, but  on their own political terms.  It is unlikely
that either the North or the  South will  be successful  in their
attempts at reunification due to the strong political currents in
the region.
     North Korea will remain impoverished and militarized as long
as Kim Il Sung is in power.  The North will continue-to pursue
a  strategy  of  violence,  including  assassination, terror, and
armed threats, to try  to frighten  the South  into capitulation.
(7:195)
     South  Korea  continues  to  pursue a dual strategy, that of
maintaining  a  strong  and  reliable  army  while  expanding the
economy in heavy industry and consumer goods. (7:195)
     The United  States wants  to keep enough combat power in the
region to prevent North Korea from attacking the South.  Further,
America  wants  to  ensure  some  overly  aggressive South Korean
government doesn't decide to attack the North.   The U.S. appears
to be satisfied with the status-quo. (7:195)
     The  Kremlin  will  not  easily  give  up  a satellite (i.e.
Czechoslovakia).  Russia appears pleased to keep North Korea poor
and militarized, relying on Russian arms and economic support.  A
militarized ally is always  useful to  the Soviets.   North Korea
gives  Russia  the  ability  to  threaten Japan and China without
directly involving Russian troops. (7:195)
     The Chinese would love a demilitarized  Korean peninsula and
a united,  neutral Korea.   Getting  Russia and the United States
off the peninsula would  create  a  pliant  buffer  state between
China and Japan. (7:195)
     The Japanese are in the throes of being the world's economic
power.  They are deeply tied to South Korea in bilateral economic
agreements.   Japan would  prefer to see the status-quo remain in
place with the U.S.  providing a  very visible  military deterent
supporting a  political and  military buffer-state between it and
the communist powers, China  and  Russia.    Japan,  although not
technically a  military partner  of South  Korea, is beginning to
realize the necessity of  engaging militarily  in defense  of the
region on  a limited scale.  They would not readily accept losing
South Korea as a free state on this historical invasion route.
     A graphic depiction of superpower interest in the  region is
illustrated  in  Figure  2.  (7:196)   Although China is Russia's
major threat in Asia, Korea is its backyard.   The  United Sates
is interested in maintaining its South Korean ally and protecting
Japan.  China has an interest in neutralizing a Russian  ally and
using Korea  as a  buffer state.   The  Japanese see Korea as the
classic invasion route over  the centuries.   But  the overriding
factor in  all the strategic political rivalries is that they all
wish the peninsula to remain peaceful.
     Once one of the largest recipients of American  economic and
military aid,  the Republic of Korea can no longer be regarded as
a struggling, underdeveloped country.   In  fact,  in  1987 South
Korea achieved  a gross  national product (GNP) of $ 118 billion,
larger than Austria; a per capita income of $ 2,813,  higher than 
Portugal; and  a trade  volume of  $ 88  billion, which placed it
twelfth among the world's trading nations.  (2:385)   South Korea
has in many respects followed the Japanese "model" of riding from
complete devastation by war to economic greatness.  This progress
has  been  founded  in  several  factors:    a firm conimitment to
development,  a  strong   partnership   between   government  and
business,  a  well-educated,  disciplined  and  industrious  work
force, and a positive integration with the international economy.
(2:385)    South  Korea  has  two  major  trade  partners  in the
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international economic arena, Japan and the United States.
     South Korea is now Japan's second largest trading partner in
Asia.   Japan accounts for 25% of all South Korean trade. (2:391)
In 1986  Korea bought  34% of  its imports  from Japan, primarily
machinery and  intermediate goods.   Japan also accounted for 19%
of South Korean export  business. (9:77)   Further,  the Japanese
account for 47% of all foreign investment in South Korea. (2:391)
     Through the past three  decades the  United States  has been
the  principal  sponsor  of  the  Republic  of  Korea's  economic
success.    The  U.S.  looms  largely  as  South  Korea's primary
economic trade  partner.  South Korea stands as America's seventh
largest trade partner. (8:1045)  In 1986 the U.S. was  a customer
to South  Korea for  over $ 19 billion (8:1053) in exports and in
1987 purchased over 30% of South  Korea's products.  (2:391)  The
U.S. also accounted for 21% of foreign investment in South Korea.
(2:391)  After decades of deficits, Korea is  managing to achieve
significant trade surpluses with the United States amounting to $
7.6 billion in 1986 and  approximately  $  9.5  billion  in 1987.
(8:1046)   But  the  South  Korean  economy  is  not without its
problems as the trade  deficit with  Japan and  the trade surplus
with the United States continue at high levels.
     Traditionally,  Koreans  do  not  like  to live beyond their
means and being in debt to foreigners above all is disturbing for
a nationalistic  people.  South Korea ranks as the world's fourth
largest  debtor  among  less  developed  countries,   and  Asia's
largest,  with  a  debt  approaching  $ 45 billion. (8:1045)  The
Koreans feel that the bilateral deficit with Japan, just over $ 5
billion in both 1986 and 1987, threatens their ability to service
their   international   debt   and   indirectly   contributes  to
protectionist  frictions  with  the  United  States  and the EEC.
(2:390)
     The success of  Korea  in  penetrating  the  U.S.  market is
meeting increasing resistance.  The Korean economy is burdened by
an overwhelming dependence on continued growth of export markets.
The Koreans  are attempting  to shift export production away from
traditional  products  such  as  clothing  and  electronics  into
products with a higher value added through requiring more skilled
labor  and  advanced  production  techniques.    These industries
include ship-building,  steel, petro-chemical products, and motor
vehicles. (9:77)  The wave of  protectionism sweeping  the United
States, Korea's  largest export  market, is  due in  part to this
renewed threat of Korea, especially in automobiles.  The American
Congress terminated  U.S. military  credits to South Korea on the
grounds tnat a country with  such  a  large  trade  surplus could
afford to pay for its own weaponry.  America is also beginning to
put pressure on Korea to  open  its  own  market  doors  to allow
American exporters  new opportunities  as these  have been closed
very much like those of Japan.
     In response, South Korea is consciously  trying to diversify
itself  away   economically  from   overdependence  on  its  main
partners, Japan and the  United States,  through Koreanization of
imports and  expanding efforts to export to the European Economic
Community.  Nevertheless, they will still remain the  Republic of
Korea's main trading partners.
     The Republic of Korea's major security concern lies with the
threat inherent in the stated ambition of its  communist neighbor
to the  north to  reunify the  country by force on its own terms.
North  Korea  is  a  highly  militarized  state  and  reveals  an
extremely offensive  orientation in  support of  its stated goal.
Further, Kim Il Sung has acknowledged that the North is  ready to
intervene  in  the South,  should  domestic  turmoil  there ever
present the opportunity.   As a  result, South  Korea maintains a
high  state  of  readiness  out  of  concern that the North might
attempt a surprise attack.
     An integral part of  South  Korean  security  is  the Mutual
Defense Treaty  with the  United States  signed in 1953.  A major
component in the South Korean defense  structure is  the sizeable
commitment of  U.S. forces to it--the largest outside of the U.S.
commitment to NATO.   The  U.S.  deploys  over  40,000  Army, Air
Force, Marine,  and Navy  personnel in  South Korea who regularly
train with South Korean  forces  in  simulated  wartime exercises
such as Team Spirit.
     The armed  forces of  the Republic of Korea are comprised of
the Army, Air Force, and Naval  Marine Force.   The  South Korean
forces are  heavily influenced  by the  U.S. military in terms of
organization,  command,  arms  of  service  and   dress.    Their
equipment  has  been  and  continues to be exclusively U.S. (Ref.
Fig. 3). (6:541)
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     Noteworthy from the order of battle is the 1950's vintage of
a significant  portion of the Korean armed forces equipment.  The
imbalance  that  has  arisen  as  a   consequence  of  inadequate
modernization  for  the  R.O.K.  could  establish  the conditions
necessary for the renewal  of conflict  on the  Korean peninsula.
The  R.O.K.  is  seeking  greater  defense  self-sufficiency  and
upgrade through a series  of  five-year  Force  Improvement Plans
(FIPs).   The first  FIP covered from 1976-1980, but was extended
one year due to fiscal constraints.  The second completed in 1986
covering  the  years  1982-1986  emphasized  development  of  the
indigenous arms industry.  (6:540)    Much  of  the  South Korean
arsenal has  been purchased  from the  U.S. in  the past, but the
R.O.K. is moving to produce in-country  all unsophisticated items
used by  the armed forces.  This full-scale modernization coupled
with a determination on the part  of the  United States  to deter
foreign  intervention  will  certainly  contribute  to preventing
conflict on the Korean peninsula.
          That consensus  rests on  a general  agreement that the
     U.S.  military  relationship  with  South  Korea contributes
     importantly to the regional balance of  power, and  that the
     United  States  could  not  extract itself from the equation
     without heightening the risk of  war  on  the  peninsula and
     without far-reaching  effects in  Japan and the rest of East
     Asia.  Over half  of  all  American  ground  and  air combat
     forces  in  the  western  Pacific  are  based in Korea under
     extremely attractive operational  arrangements.    While the
     mission of  these forces is defense of South Korea, they are
     also  a  vital  constituent  of  the  strong  U.S.  presence
     throughout  Northeast  Asia,  a  presence  that  has  offset
     growing Soviet  power  and  undergirded  our  own  ties with
     Japan, China,  and the R.O.K. as well as improving relations
     with them.
          These  realities...also  mean  that  the  R.O.K. cannot
     eliminate a  continuing dependency on the United States.  In
     these circumstances Washington needs to adjust  its military
ties  with  Seoul  not  only  to  accommodate  the  evolving
     requirements of both sides but also  the new  nationalism in
     Korea. (8:1052)
     The U.S.-R.O.K. military relationship should be reviewed and
revised to ensure that America's policies and posture accommodate
both South  Korea's new  strength and  national pride and promote
the national interests of the United States.
     The  United  States   seems   suspicious   of  nationalistic
assertion by virtually any third world or developing nation.  The
Americans are particularly suspect  of  the  rising  South Korean
nationalistic attitude toward U.S.-Korean relations.  This outcry
may result  significantly  as  being  a  consequence  of American
paternalism.   Within the  military, nationalistic concerns about
the  consequences  of  the  present  military  structure  of  the
alliance  are  beginning  to  emerge.    Several concerns require
timely attention:  the Combined Forces Command structure, nuclear
weapons  policy,  implications  for  Korea  in  the   U.S.  global
strategic doctrine of "horizontal escalation," and  the reduction
of the American presence in South Korea. (9:85)
     Due to the overwhelming dominance of U.S. forces in the U.N.
force fighting during the  Korean  War,  the  U.S.  commander was
given  operational  command  over  all  forces including those of
South Korea.  When in 1953 President Syngman Rhee refused to sign
the armistice,  the U.S.  commander became solely responsible for
U.S. -R.O.K. enforcement of the  agreement.   The military command
structure still reflects those Korean War conditions.  The senior
U.S. military commander in Korea is in charge of almost all South
Korean, as  well as American forces in wartime and a good portion
in peacetime, as well  in  the  guise  of  one  of  seven command
positions he  holds in the Combined Forces Command. (15:35)  Third
command arrangement is a painful  reminder  to  South  Koreans of
their dependence  on the  United States and is beginning to grate
on nationalist sensitivities.
     On an international scale, legally the U.N. Command may have
to  remain  in  place  with  an American in charge to enforce the
armistice agreement unless and  until this  agreement is replaced
by a  treaty between  the beligerants.   However, change to allow
South Korean command over its own  ground forces  at least during
peacetime will  be necessary  to maintain high levels of military
cooperation.  There has  been a  fundamental slight  delivered to
the national  pride of the Korean military commanders who own the
overwhelming majority of defense forces, i.e.  eighteen divisions
for  the  Koreans  vice  one  division  for the Americans.  It is
unlikely that American forces would ever be placed  under a South
Korean   commander,   however   American   dominance  of  command
responsibilities does not appear to be possible much longer given
the present social environment. (8:1047)
     During the past twenty years, U.S. nuclear weapons have been
present on the Korean peninsula and have been one of  the pillars
of the  Korean defense strategy.  Policy commits the use of these
weapons against invading North Koreans especially  in the defense
of Seoul,  the supreme strategic objective in all of South Korea.
Tactical considerations for use  of tactical  nuclear weapons are
arguable.   The proximity of friendly troops and Seoul, a city of
10 million a mere  30  kilometers  south  of  the  DMZ,  begs the
question of  feasibility of  use.   Further, the Koreans, are not
only beginning to question the use of such weapons, but also that
they  would  be  used  by Americans, i.e. foreigners not Koreans.
Korean sensibilities are additionally irritated by  the exclusion
of  Korean  military  planners  and  commanders  from the nuclear
command structure.    There  must  be  a  rational  joint control
command  structure  placed  over   U.S.  nuclear  weapons   (9:85)
Americans are extremely sensitive about their own nuclear weapons
on  their  own  soil.    One can only surmise that similar Korean
national feelings exist and  are  especially  susceptible  to the
aspect of foreign command and control.
     The United  States Maritime  Strategy as detailed by admiral
James D.  Watkins  in  January  1986  introduces  the  concept of
"horizontal escalation" as the process of denying the Soviets the
luxury of fighting a  one-theater  war.  (16:13)    This doctrine
suggests that  a war  with the Soviet Union may be conducted in a
region of the world other than where the  initial conflict breaks
out.   Therefore, it becomes quite obvious Korea could become the
scene of a major  war for  reasons that  have nothing  to do with
South Korea's  defense against  the North.   This fact distresses
the South Koreans somewhat.  The R.O.K. seeks  primarily the goal
of  local  defense  on  the  Korean  peninsula  with a mixture or
blending of regional deterence provided by its alliance  with the
United  States.    The  U.S.  on  the  other  hand tends to place
strategic primacy  on  regional  deterence  vis-a-vis  the Soviet
Union with  a component  of that  strategy being local defense of
South Korea from Northern agression. (12:149)   It  is reasonable
to believe  that doubts have begun to surface about the wisdom of
such an affiliation by military members with a  nationalist bent.
The U.S.  and R.O.K.  must seek a formulation of joint strategies
on terms more strictly tied  to  Korean  definitions  of national
interest,  while  also  providing  for  the common defense of the
region against a growing Soviet threat. (9:85)
     With growing nationalist  sentiment  and  political upheaval
there has  been an  effort to  reduce the  visibility of American
troops  in   South   Korea.      The   recently   installed  Bush
Administration  reiterated  the  American  commitment  to  a free
R.O.K.  and  that  an  adjustment  of  the  military relationship
between the  nations would be well-conceived and in the interests
of both nations.  In other  words, the  U.S. is  not reducing its
strength   in   Korea   as   yet;  however,  as R.O.K.  military
capabilities grow the reconsideration of some  reconfiguration or
withdrawal of some of the 40,000 American forces in Korea will be
forthcoming.   With the  potential for  the R.O.K.  to reach war-
fighting parity  with the  north by the mid 90's, the need for so
many troops will decrease.  However,  there are  many factors the
U.S. will  have to  consider before  taking such  an action other
than just the simple pressure of some urban unrest.
     As we enter the decade of the 90's  reduction of  forces may
well be  justified for  a number  of reasons:   a self-sufficient
Korea,  a  remilitarized  Japan, Gorbachev's initiatives in force
redutions.   But, among the most touted will be the  cost savings
as America enters a time of fiscal restraint.  If forces are
withdrawn on the basis of saving money, it must be realized that
probably no money would be saved by returning them to the United
States or rebasing in the Pacific.  The expense of such a move
and the construction and support of facilities would likely be
greater than costs are now (5:64)  Thus the impact that this 
would have on the federal budget would have to be carefully
considered as well as the alternative sites availabe for basing
in an ever shrinking world.
     Another  factor   that  must  be  considered  is  how   troop
reductions would be perceived by nations in the  area.  Certainly,
the Koreans  and Japanese  would have  to be consulted.  The U.S.
would require a high degree of credibility and  also a confidence
on the  part of  Korea and Japan that they could handle increased
responsibility for their own defense.   The U.S.  on reduction or
withdrawal may  offer the  reason that  it is  husbanding a vital
portion  of  its   military   capability   thus   preserving  its
flexibility to respond more effectively to any threat arrising in
the area. (5:65)
   These  two  allies  may  be  rightfully   concerned  about  the
American's ability  to respond  in the  event of crisis.  Several
conditions must exist before the  U.S.  could  safely  reduce its
presence  in  Korea.   One is that intelligence sources woud have
to be enhanced  so as to  provide adequate  warning of  a surprise
attack or the imminent outbreak of hostilities.  A second is that
America must have the  strategic mobility  to move  a significant
amount  of  force  into  the  arena  to either deter or defeat an
aggressive act. (5:64)    Presently  the  U.S.  does  not possess
either one  of these  capabilities and  to purchase  them is more
cost prohibitive   than  keeping troops  in place.   Finally, the
R.O.K.  must    carry  to   fulfillment  the  ongoing  and  future
modernization  of   the   R.O.K.  armed  forces  to  stabilize   the
military balance between the north and the south.
     It will be essential. for the United States to ensure that no
misleading signals about unwavering  commitment are  delivered to
any  external  player--North  Korea,  the Soviet Union, or China.
There must be no  circumstances which  might give  the impression
that the  United States  is reducing  its presence  due to fiscal
restraint,  a  surge  in  isolationism,  or  bowing  to  internal
pressure.
     Professor  Yuan-Li  Wu  of  the  University of San Francisco
provided a statement on this issue of perceptions
          ...The more confident an ally is in his  own capability
     and in  the capability and resolve of the United States, the
     lower will  be the  required level  of U.S.  presence on the
     spot.    The same applies to the perception of the adversary.
     All of this implies that both the safe  level of  U.S. force
     reduction  and  the  geographical  aspect of deployment of a
     smaller force in Pacific-Asia  are functions  of confidence.
     When allied  confidence is  low, a greater presence and more
     forward defense will be required   The contr&ry is true when
     confidence  is  high  or building...When confidence is fully
     reestablished, force reductions  required  for  budgeting or
     other reasons will be safe and feasible  (5:66)
     As Admiral Gaylor has commented, "...The presence that
counts is the presence that's were the East Asian leaders can
see its..."   If peace and stability are our goals on the Korean
peninsula then it seens essential that  the United  Statea should
retain its bases and forces in the area.  This objective will not
be obtained without cost, economic and  political.   There simply
is   no  inexpensive  way  to  maintain bases ard forces overseas.
Futher, to remove forces from the  area of  potential aggression
is to  risk aggression occurring.  Reducing American presence and
visibility under the present  nationalistic political  and social
conditions must  be considered.   But,  not at the risk of losing
the  trip-wire  functions,  bi-lateral   linkages,  and  uniquely
American  military  capabilities  that  have served in preserving
South Korea's security as well as  stability throughout Northeast
Asia.
     Clearly, in  view of  the rising tide of national sentiment,
America must reevaluate its  military  structure  and  posture in
Northeast  Asia  on  the  Korean  peninsula.  Korean command over
their own forces is a logical outgrowth of   the development of a
highly professional officer corps and a military self-sufficiency
in many  areas.   The deployment  of American   nuclear weapons on
foreign  soil,  always  a contentious issue, brought wide-ranging
protest  in  Europe  in  the  past  decade.    It  should  not be
surprising  or  upsetting  that  the  Koreans  are  beginning  to
question the wisdom of their  use,  as  their   conventional power
grows, as  well as desire an input into their command and control
and  employment.     The   American  naval   strategic  issue  of
"horizontal  escalation"  is  bothersome to Koreans because it
carries with it the implication of involvement in the world war
that may start in Europe or the Middle  East and  have nothing to
do  with  Korean  national  interest.    For  a nation that looks
primarily to local conflict and has a limited  regional interest,
this strategy  presents problems that complicate ties to the U.S.
and their sensitivities must  be considered  by national command
authorities.    Reducing  the  presence of American forces on the
peninsula, though not a time sensitive  issue, must  be evaluated
in light  of South  Korean military  capabilities, perceptions of
friend and foe alike, and  ultimately  the  U.S.  federal budget.
These issues  are complex  and intertwine.   Only through a truly
dedicated effort and understanding  by both  South Korea  and the
United States can a mutually beneficial and reliable agreement be
reached on these issues.   America  must recognize  the import of
Korean nationalism  and must make some accommodations to maintain
a  strong  alliance.    The  Koreans  on  the  other   hand, while
nationalism is  a natural  outgrowth of a strong nation, must not
let its  fervor get  out of  hand and  destabilize a relationship
that forms the basis of stability in Northeast Asia.
                        BIBLIOGRAPHY
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2. Bridges, Brian. "East Asia in Transition:  South Korea  in the
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3. Bunge, Frederica, ed. North Korea A Country Study. Washington
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