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Military

Appendix E
Intelligence Indicators

Table E-1. Enemy Activity Indicators--Indigenous Population
General Activities
  • Identification of agitators, insurgents, militias or criminal organizations, their supporters, and sympathizers who suddenly appear, in, or move out of, an area.
  • Emergence of new leaders among the population.
  • New faces in a rural community.
  • Unusual gatherings among the population.
  • Disruption of normal social patterns.
  • Mass urban rural migration or vice versa.
  • Massing of combatants of competing power groups.
  • Increase in the size of embassy or consulate staffs from a country or countries that support indigenous disaffected groups, particularly those hostile to the United States or the current intervention.
  • Increase in neighboring countries of staff and activities at embassies or consulates of countries associated with supporting indigenous disaffected groups.
  • Increased travel by suspected subversives or leaders of competing power bases to countries hostile to the United States or opposed to the current intervention.
  • Influx of opposition resident and expatriate leaders into the AO.
  • Reports of opposition or disaffected indigenous population receiving military training in foreign countries.
  • Increase of visitors (for example, tourists, technicians, businessmen, religious leaders, officials) from groups or countries hostile to the United States or opposed to the current intervention.
  • Close connections between diplomatic personnel of hostile countries and local opposition groups.
  • Communications between opposition groups and external supporters.
  • Increase of disaffected youth gatherings.
  • Establishment of organizations of unexplained origin and with unclear or nebulous aims.
  • Establishment of a new organization to replace an existing organizational structure with identical aims.
  • Appearance of many new members in existing organizations such as labor unions.
  • Infiltration of student organizations by known agitators.
  • Appearance of new organizations stressing grievances or interests of repressed or minority groups.
  • Reports of large donations to new or revamped organizations.
  • Reports of payment to locals for engaging in subversive or hostile activities.
  • Reports of formation of opposition paramilitary or militia organizations.
  • Reports of lists of targets for planned opposition attacks.
  • Appearance of "professional" agitators in gatherings or demonstrations that result in violence.
  • Evidence of paid and armed demonstrators' participation in riots.
  • Significant increase in thefts, armed robberies, and violent crime in rural areas; increase in bank robberies in urban areas.
    • Opposition-Directed Activities
  • Refusal of population to pay or unusual difficulty to collect rent, taxes, or loan payments.
  • Trends of demonstrated hostility toward government forces or mission force.
  • Unexplained population disappearance from or avoidance of certain areas.
  • Unexplained disappearance or dislocation of young people.
  • Reported incidents of attempted recruitment to join new movements or underground organizations.
  • Criminals and disaffected youth who appear to be acting with and for the opposition.
  • Reports of extortion and other coercion by opposition elements to obtain financial support from the population.
  • Use of fear tactics to coerce, control, or influence the local population.
  • Reports of HN government or mission force facilities and personnel surveillance.
    • Activities Directed Against the Government/Mission Force
  • Failure of police and informer nets to report accurate information, which may indicate sources are actively supporting opposition elements or are intimidated.
  • Decreasing success of government law enforcement or military infiltration of opposition or disaffected organizations.
  • Assassination or disappearance of government sources.
  • Reports of attempts to bribe or blackmail government officials, law enforcement employees, or mission personnel.
  • Reports of attempts to obtain classified information from government officials, government offices, or mission personnel.
  • Classified information leaked to the media.
  • Sudden affluence of certain government and law enforcement personnel.
  • Recurring failure of government or mission force raids on suspected opposition organizations or illegal activities apparently due to forewarning.
  • Increased hostile or illegal activity against the HN government, its law enforcement and military organizations, foreigners, minority groups, or competing political, ethnic, linguistic, or religious groups.
  • Demonstrations against government forces, minority groups, or foreigners designed to instigate violent confrontations with government or mission forces.
  • Increased antigovernment or mission force rhetoric in local media.
  • Occurrence of strikes in critical areas intended to cast doubt on the HN government's ability to maintain order and provide for the people.
  • Unexplained loss, destruction, or forgery of government identification cards and passports.
  • Recurring unexplained disruption of public utilities.
  • Reports of terrorist acts or extortion attempts against local government leaders and businessmen.
  • Murder of kidnapping of government, military, and law enforcement officials or mission force personnel.
  • Closing of schools.

    • Table E-2. Propaganda Indicators
    General Propaganda Activities
  • Dissident propaganda from unidentified sources.
  • Increase in the number of entertainers with a political message
  • Increase of political themes in religious services.
  • Increase in appeals directed at intensifying general ethnic or religious unrest in countries where ethnic or religious competition exists.
  • Increase of agitation on issues for which there is no identified movement or organization.
  • Renewed activity by dissident or opposition organizations thought to be defunct or dormant.
  • Circulation of petitions advocating opposition or dissident demands.
  • Appearance of opposition slogans and pronouncements by word-of-mouth, graffiti, posters, leaflets, and other methods.
  • Propaganda linking local ethnic groups with those in neighboring countries or regions.
  • Clandestine radio broadcasts intended to appeal to those with special grievances or to underprivileged ethnic groups.
  • Use of bullhorns, truck-mounted loudspeakers, and other public address equipment in "spontaneous" demonstrations.
  • Presence of nonmedia photographers among demonstrators.
  • Rallies to honor "martyred" opposition personnel. Mass demonstrations honoring local dissident heroes or dates significant to the opposition.
  • Nationwide strikes called to demonstrate the strength of the opposition movements.
    • Propaganda Activities Directed Against the Established Government
  • Attempts to discredit or ridicule national or public officials.
  • Attempts to discredit the judicial and law enforcement system.
  • Characterization of government leaders as puppets and tools of foreign intervention forces.
  • Agitation against government projects and plans.
  • Radio propaganda from foreign countries that is aimed at the target country's population and accuses the target country's government of failure to meet the people's needs.
    • Propaganda Activities Directed Against the Mission Force and HN Military and Law Enforcement
  • Spreading accusations that the HN military and police are corrupt and out of touch with the people.
  • Spreading accusations that mission force personnel will introduce customs or attitudes that are in opposition to local cultural or religious beliefs.
  • Character assassinations of mission, military, and law enforcement officials.
  • Demands to remove strong anti-opposition or anticrime military and law enforcement leaders from office.
  • Calls for the population to cease cooperating with the mission force and/or HN military and law enforcement.
  • Deliberate incidents to provoke mission, military, or police reprisals during demonstrations or strikes.
  • Widespread hostile media coverage of even minor criminal violations or incidents involving mission force personnel.
  • Accusations of brutality or ineffectiveness or claims that mission or government forces initiated violence following confrontations.
  • Publication of photographs portraying repressive and violent acts by mission force or government forces.
  • Refusal of businessmen and shop owners to conduct business with mission force personnel.
    • Propaganda Activities Directed Against the Education System
  • Appearance of questionable doctrine and teachings in the educational system.
  • Creation of ethnic, tribal, religious, or other interest group schools outside the government educational system, which propagate opposition themes and teachings.
  • Charges that the educational system is only training youth to do the government's bidding.
  • Student unrest manifested by new organizations, proclamations, demonstrations, and strikes against authority.

    • Table E-3. Commodities Indicators
    Food-Related Activities
  • Diversion of crops or meat from markets.
  • Unexplained shortages of food supplies when there are no reports of natural causes.
  • Increased reports of pilfering of foodstuffs.
  • Sudden increase in food prices, possibly indicating an opposition-levied tax.
  • Unwillingness of farmers to transport food to population centers, indicating a fear of traveling highways.
  • Spot shortages of foodstuffs in regions or neighborhoods associated with a minority group or weaker competing interest groups, while food supplies are generally plentiful in other areas. Conversely, sudden local shortages of foodstuffs in rural areas may indicate the existence of an armed opposition group operating in that region.
  • Sudden increase of meat in markets, possibly indicating slaughtered livestock because of a lack of fodder to sustain them.
  • Appearance of emergency relief supplies for sale in black markets, possibly indicating diversion from starving populations.
  • Appearance of relief supplies for sale in normal markets in a country or region recently suffering from large-scale hunger, which may indicate the severity of the food crisis, is diminishing.
    • Arms and Ammunition-Related Activities
  • Increased loss or theft of weapons from police and military forces.
  • Discovery of arms, ammunition, and explosives being clandestinely manufactured, transported, or cached.
  • Attacks on patrols resulting in the loss of weapons and ammunition.
  • Increased purchase of surplus military goods.
  • Sudden increase in prices for arms and ammunition to the open market.
  • Reports of large arms shipments destined for neighboring countries, but not intended for that government.
  • Reports of known arms traffickers establishing contacts with opposition elements.
  • Increase in armed robberies.
  • Reports of thefts or sudden shortages of chemicals that could be used in the clandestine manufacture of explosives.
  • Reports of large open-market purchases of explosive-related chemicals without an identifiable industrial user.
  • Appearance of manufactured or smuggled arms from noncontiguous foreign countries.
    • Clothing-Related Activities
  • Unusual, systematic purchase or theft of clothing materials that could be used for the manufacture of uniforms or footwear.
  • Unusual scarcity of clothing or material used in the manufacture of clothing or footwear.
  • Distribution of clothing to underprivileged or minority classes by organizations of recent or suspect origin.
  • Discovery of caches of uniforms and footwear or the materials that could be used to manufacture uniforms and footwear.
  • Increase of males in the streets wearing military style clothing or distinctive markings.
    • Medicine-Related Activities
  • Large-scale purchasing or theft of drugs and medicines or the herbs used to manufacture local remedies.
  • Scarcity of drugs and medical supplies on the open or black markets.
  • Diversion of medical aid donations.
  • Discovery of caches of medical supplies.
    • Communications-Related Activities
  • Increase in the purchase and use of radios.
  • Discovery of caches of communications equipment.
  • Unusual increase in amateur radio or cellular telephone communications traffic.

    • Table E-4. Environment-Related Indicators
    Rural Activities
  • Evidence of increased foot traffic in the area.
  • Increased travel within and into remote or isolated areas.
  • Unexplained trails and cold campsites.
  • Establishment of new, unexplained agricultural areas, or recently cleared fields.
  • Unusual smoke, possibly indicating the presence of a campsite or a form of communication.
  • Concentration of dead foliage in an area, possibly indicating use of camouflage.
  • Presence of foot traps, spikes, booby traps, or improved mines along routes and trails.
    • Urban Activities
  • Apartments, houses, or buildings being rented, but not lived in as homes.
  • Slogans written on walls, bridges, and streets.
  • Defacement of government or mission force information signs.
  • Sabotage of electrical power network; pollution of urban areas' water supply.
  • Terrorist acts against physical targets, such as bridges, dams, airfields, or buildings.
  • Change of residence of suspected agitators or opposition leaders.
  • Discovery of message dead-drops.
  • Increased smuggling of currency, gold, gems, narcotics, medical supplies, and arms into urban centers.
  • Appearance of abnormal amounts of counterfeit currency.
  • Increase in bank robberies.
  • Work stoppages or slowdowns in essential industries.
  • Marked decline in product quality in essential industries.
  • Marked increase in equipment failures in essential industries.
  • Unexplained explosions in essential utilities and industries.
  • Establishment of roadblocks or barricades around neighborhoods associated with opposition elements.
  • Attempts to disrupt public transport through sabotage.
  • Malicious damage of industrial products or factory machinery.



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