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LESSON 1
TERRORIST THREAT
CRITICAL TASK: None.
OVERVIEW
TASK DESCRIPTION:
In this lesson, you will learn how to define terrorism, list the motivators of terrorism, and categorize terrorist movements.
LEARNING OBJECTIVE:
| ACTIONS: | Describe the terrorist threat, identify the types of terrorism, and define the role that terrorism plays in global conflict. |
| CONDITIONS: | You will be given narrative information and extracts from AR 525-13. |
| STANDARDS: | Procedures for identifying specific terrorist threats will be in accordance with provisions of AR 525-13. |
| REFERENCES: | The material contained in this lesson was derived from the following publications: AR 525-13. FM 100-37. FC 100-37-2. |
INTRODUCTION
Terrorism is a special type of violence. It is a tactic used in peace, conflict, and war. The threat of terrorism is ever present, and an attack is likely to occur when least expected. A terrorist attack may be the event that marks the transition from peace to conflict or war. Combatting terrorism is a factor to consider in all military plans and operations. Combatting terrorism requires a continuous state of awareness; it is a necessary practice rather than a type of military operation. Terrorism is a criminal offense under nearly every national or international legal code. With few exceptions, acts of terrorism are forbidden in war as they are in times of peace. See, for example, the Hague Regulation of 1907 and the Geneva Conventions of 1949.
There is little that can strike more fear in a society than the spectre of terrorist violence. This ruthless phenomenon is not new. Terrorism has been practiced for a variety of reasons with varied degrees of success since the beginning of mankind. The plots and brutality of terrorism are as much a part of the progression of history as the invention of the wheel. Just as mankind has progressed, so has terrorism progressed. Extensive research has been directed towards trying to understand terrorists, their ideologies, goals, motivations, and organizations. It is because of past terrorists' successes that we can expect to see an increase of terrorism on a worldwide scale. As a result, the United States military will continue to be a primary terrorist target. Defining terrorism has been a source of universal disagreement. There are diverse beliefs regarding the right of a people to revolt. An individual who is labeled as a terrorist by one segment of society may be viewed as a freedom fighter by another segment. When does the legitimate right to change one's government stop and the government's responsibilities to protect its citizens begin?
The definition of terrorism used for all Department of the Army (DA) counterterrorism activities is found in AR 525-13. Therein, terrorism is defined as "the calculated use of violence or threat of violence to attain goals that are political, religious or ideological in nature. This is done through intimidation, coercion, or instilling fear. Terrorism involves a criminal act that is often symbolic and intended to influence an audience beyond the immediate victims."
Listed below are additional definitions of terrorism:
"...the unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a revolutionary organization against individuals or property with the intention of coercing or intimidating governments or societies, often for political or ideological purpose." - US Department of Defense, 1983.
...the unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives." - FBI, 1983.
"...premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine state agents." - US State Department, 1984.
"...violent criminal conduct apparently intended: (a) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (b) to influence the conduct of a government by intimidation or coercion, or (c) to affect the conduct of a government by assassination or kidnapping." - US Department of Justice, 1984.
"...the unlawful use or threat of violence against persons or property to further political or social objectives. It is usually intended to intimidate or coerce a government, individuals or groups or to modify their behavior or policies." - The Vice President's Task Force on Combating Terrorism, 1986.
"violence for...effect...not primarily, and sometimes not at all for physical effect on the actual target, but rather for its dramatic effect on the audience..." - Brian Jenkins, Rand Corp.
PART A: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Throughout history, terrorism has been refined in order to gain legitimacy. History abounds with examples of terrorism and its influence on the shaping of human development. In ancient times, terrorism was almost exclusively the deed of the sword, bow and arrows, and poison. The invention, and subsequent advent of the use of gunpowder in war, has changed the terrorist's means to that of bombs. Bombings have emerged as the most common tactic employed by terrorists. Risk International, a Washington, D.C. area research organization, determined that in the 21 years following 1970, approximately 65 percent of all recorded terrorist incidents were bombings.
The history of terrorism can be divided into four broad periods of time. The ancient form of terrorism generally lacked unity and clear-cut ideology. Terrorist incidents may have been motivated by conspiracies, divided loyalties, and in many cases mere acts conducted to slay an oppressor. The Scythians, a tribe who lived around the Caspian Sea, played a role in the use of terrorism from the 9th to the 3rd centuries BC. Through use of indiscriminate terror, this small tribe controlled a land mass approximately the size of modern day Iran. Some of their acts included drinking the blood of their enemies, skinning their enemies alive, or scalping them.
Tyranicide, the "legal killing of a tyrant," gained legitimacy with the assassination of Caesar. Often the assassins who slew a tyrant were honored as liberating heroes and often ascended the empty throne of the slain ruler only to become oppressors themselves. The terrorist pressures on the leaders and society forced the leaders to adopt stronger defensive and protective measures that in the long run created even more repression. This vicious cycle usually created more dissent and dissatisfaction which is precisely what the terrorists needed to destabilize the social and political system. This remains the basic principle of revolutionary terrorist strategy today.
The Greeks and Romans institutionalized the use of terror by the state. As an example, the Roman penal code authorized the use of the rack, leaden balls, barbed hooks, hot plates, and arm compressing cords.
Genghis Khan and Tamerlane used somewhat different forms of terrorism. Khan, upon capturing his neighbors, the Tartars, consolidated his victory by destroying nearly all of that society's males. Boys were spared if they were no taller than a cartwheel's linchpin. All women and surviving children were then enslaved. In fact, prisoner taking was a form of taxation. Khan captured and executed the entire Scythian tribe. Tamerlane, among other things, used to build mountains out of the skulls of his victims.
During the inquisition, torture was for God's Greater Glory. In 1252, Pope Innocent IV, in his Papal bull, "AD EXTIR PANDA", authorized torture of the accused to obtain the victim's confessions and the names of additional heretics. Many, like Joan of Arc in 1431, were publicly executed. Under the Grand Inquisitor, Tomas de Torquemada, brutalities were ingenious and numerous. During this period of time, some 2,000 people were put to death at the stake.
The second period of terrorism began with the adoption of gunpowder to warfare. The American and French Revolutions could be characterized as the transitory period which resulted in the founding of true revolutionary terrorism. The French revolution, begun in 1789, culminated with the Reign of Terror (1793 to 1794). Historians differ as to the precise cause. Some attribute it to the uprising of the French peasant masses and other underprivileged against the feudal regime. Others view it as a result of the new and growing middle class, the bourgeoisie of France, seeking their place in the sun. Both the lower and middle classes had legitimate grievances; taxation was unequal, corruption rife, as well as other injustices. Many historians attribute the actual beginning of the revolution to the storming of the Bastille in Paris on July 14, 1789, by a peasant mob. The rise to power of the Jacobins and the subsequent French Revolution, led by Robespierre, resulted in the end of the reign of King Louis XVI. The royal family was imprisoned in August 1791. Subsequently, both the king and his queen, Marie Antoinette, were sentenced to death and died under the blade of the guillotine. Mass killings began in September 1792. Aristocrats and priests who did not flee France were executed without the benefit of trial. In September alone, 2000 were put to death. In response to the Jacobin slogan, "Let us make terror the order of the day," 2,663 men and women were guillotined in the final two months of the Great Terror. Throughout the entire period, more than 17,000 were killed.
During the American Revolution there were isolated acts of terrorism. Some of the groups involved included: the Torys and the American colonists who used hostile Indian tribes against the civilian population; the "Liberty Boys" of Georgia; Francis Marion, "The Swamp Fox" (South Carolina); and Ethan Allan and the "Green Mountain Boys" of Vermont. A point to remember is that neither General Washington nor the Continental Congress advocated nor condoned the use of terrorism by the Continental Army. This is an important fact to remember, for many modern day terrorist groups link their actions to those of the American Revolution. In his speech of November 13, 1974, at the United Nations Assembly, Yasir Arafat, head of the PLO terrorist group, tried to equate his murderous organization to the American people in their struggle for liberation from the British colonists. "If these Arabs are now being called terrorists," he said, "those 18th Century Americans should also be classified as terrorists." He compared himself to George Washington, the "heroic Washington whose purpose was his nation's freedom and independence."
Answering Arafat on November 21 at the same forum, the chief American delegate, John A. Scali, rejected this equation of the historic American Revolution with the Arabs' "indiscriminate terror." Said Scali: "There were instances during the American Revolution where innocent people suffered, but there were no instances where the revolutionary leadership boasted of or condoned such crimes. There were victims on both sides but no deliberate policy of terrorism. Those who molded our nation and fought for our freedom never succumbed to the easy excuse that the "end justifies the means."
The use of organized guerrilla and partisan groups during the war between the States was widespread. Although not sanctioned by their respective governments, a number of terrorist acts were committed. Groups such as the Jayhawkers, Regulators, and Redlegs on one side and the Bushwackers and Border Ruffians on the other side practiced terror tactics. Men such as J. H. Lane, C. R. Jennision, W. C. Quantrell, and others, gained a great deal of notoriety for their acts; and, in some cases, paradoxically, respectability as well.
The third period of terrorism dates from the 1860s and extends through the end of World War II. During this period, the political and philosophical foundations of modern terrorism were formed. Some of the philosophical publications included: Sergei Nechayev's The Catechism of a Revolutionary and Friedrick Engels, The Anti-Duhring of 1877. Some of the key points of these philosophies are important for discussion. For example, the Catechism describes the revolutionary: "A Revolutionary...no interest of his own...no feelings...no belongings. He will be the implacable enemy of the world, if he continues to live in it, that will be only so as to destroy it more effectively." The Anti-Duhring theory states: "We (communists) reject any dogmatic morality (forever)...henceforth, we reject any unchangeable moral law allegedly having its permanent principle."
These philosophical pronouncements have been translated into almost every known language. Mikhail Bakunin, who many believe to be the father of anarchist terrorism, exported his revolutionary terrorist philosophy and violence from Russia into Central and Western Europe with rare success. Nonetheless, he planted the seeds of terrorism which are producing some of the most vicious violence evident today. When Czar Alexander II, of Russia, was assassinated by a group known as the people's will, that event helped set in motion a series of events which lead to the Russian revolution and the killing of the Russian Royal family at Ekaterinenburg. When Gavril Princip, the Serbian Revolutionary, mortally wounded Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo, it was a terrorist act motivated by nationalism. His shots brought about the downfall of a dynasty, other dynasties soon would fall, which lead to the beginning of the First World War; millions of deaths; and lead to the shaping of a new Europe which in turn lead to another world war. Contemporary terrorists have drawn heavily on these events and the writings of Nechayev, Engels, and others.
Some of these include: Eldridge Cleaver, Black Panther Party, "Soul on Ice;" The American Terrorist of the 1960s; Arab Commandos of the 60s and 70s; Carlos Marighella, author of the "Mini-Manual for Urban Guerrilla Warfare;" Che Guevarra; and Mao Tse-Tung. The list is indeed far longer than the few examples listed.
During this period, there were numerous terrorist incidents. One of the more prominent examples occurred in 1877. Unemployment, a harsh winter, anarchist propaganda, police overreaction, and a large bomb thrown at the police culminated with the Haymarket Square Riot on 1 May 1877. Initially, 3,000 demonstrators confronted 180 police. When a bomb exploded in the police ranks, one policeman was killed and several policemen were wounded. In the ensuing gun battle, 7 police were killed and over 60 were wounded. Police raids and arrests, followed by grand jury indictments and a trial, resulted in nine indictments and 8 convictions. Four of the convicted individuals were subsequently executed. August Spies, convicted anarchist, stated, "There will be a time when our silence will be more powerful than the voices you strangle." The significance of the Haymarket riots was that, with the conviction and subsequent executions of several of the leaders, most of the anarchist movement in the United States was ended.
PART B: TERRORIST FROM WWII TO LATE 80'S
The fourth period of terrorism dates from post WWII to the present day. This period has seen the rise of National/Separatists movements. Examples of these include: The conflict in Ireland; the conflict in Palestine; the Sikhs movements for a State of Bengal separate from India; the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF), fighting for a separate, independent state within Ethiopia; and the Quebec Liberation Front (FLQ), fighting for the independence of French Quebec. Wars of National Liberation have been numerous. Examples include: Kenya, Cypress, Aden, Algeria, and Rhodesia. Extreme Right Wing Terrorism also had a resurgence. Examples of these groups include: Military Sports Group Hoffman (former West Germany), the Black Order in Italy, The National Front of the United Kingdom, State Supported Terrorism (International), Uganda (Idi Amin), Haiti (Duvalier Family), Argentina (Death Squads), El Salvador (Death Squads), and the former USSR (KGB).
The current era differs from previous ones by advances in the technology of weapons; communications; transport; and, with the end of colonial times, the onset of an age of numerous movements and wars for "freedom, national liberation and self determination."
With rapid advances in communications technology, terrorists, for the first time, have an opportunity to present their case and cause directly to their target audience through the medium of television.
The development of swift, convenient and inexpensive mass transportation allows the terrorist to travel from country to country with a minimum of bother and inconvenience to set the stage for the evolution of international terrorism. The ready availability of light, efficient and deadly weaponry created a situation where the terrorists were more often than not better armed than the police and security authorities who were expected by society to defeat them.
The end of World War II found the European colonial powers weakened to the point of impotence. The Soviet Union, as one of the victors in the war, gained a huge territorial empire in Eastern Europe where they escalated the Leninist ambition of world conquest through subversion and revolution. Holland, and to a lesser extent, Great Britain, arranged for an orderly and peaceful transfer of political power and independence to most of their former colonies. France, Spain, Portugal, and Belgium all struggled to varying degrees to retain their control of Asian and African colonies. All were subjected to wars of liberation by their colonial subjects and all lost their colonies as a result of those wars. In every event, those wars for independence or "wars for national liberation," involved, to at least some extent, the use of terrorist tactics and in most cases, by all parties involved in the war. In many, if not all of these wars, the revolutionary leaders were influenced by communist philosophy and/or trained in the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union attempted to subvert or destroy non-communist revolutionary movements. In addition, the Soviet Union, or its surrogates, assisted leftist revolutionaries with weapons, supplies, advisors, and occasionally with troops. Just as importantly, perhaps more so, the political influence of the former East Bloc was used effectively within the United Nations to prevent or deter countermoves by non-communist entities. Some people will say that if the former Soviet Union had not collapsed, terrorism, and terrorist movements would be much more prevalent today.
The founding of the state of Israel in 1948 displaced a large percentage of the non-Jewish population of Palestine. The resulting turmoil, with hundreds of thousands of refugees through several generations condemned to live and die in refugee camps, made a fertile breeding ground for terrorists. Political extremism, with its routine use of terrorism, became commonplace and gained acceptance. In the past two decades, use of the tactics and strategies of terrorism have spread far beyond the scope of "wars of liberation" and have become a serious threat to the political and economic stability of the Western World.
The late 1960s marked the advent of modern terrorism in Western Europe and the United States. Numerous liberal political movements, ostensibly motivated by the involvement of the United States in Vietnam, became actively militant. The civil rights movement, particularly in the United States, had gained in popularity and acceptance. Within those two movements, extremists and communist-inspired activists attempted to gain control of some of the larger and more influential organizations. Groups which had espoused nonviolent political activism split along ideological lines with the extremist splinter groups turning to terrorism as a means to attain their political goals. For example, the Students for a Democratic Society (SDS), an organization of leftist university students which originally advocated nonviolent political action to further the causes of civil rights and ending US participation in the Vietnamese war, escalated its activism to include sit-ins, street actions, demonstrations and arson. In 1969, the organization divided along ideological lines, resulting in the formation of the Weather Underground, a small but highly dedicated terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of the United States and its form of government through violence and death. Likewise, Black extremists within the civil rights movements split off to become terrorist organizations advocating the establishment of a black nation within the territory of the United States and the destruction of the democratic process in this country. In both cases, leaders of those groups had close ties with, were supported, and in some cases, were trained by the former Soviet Union, Cuba and other communist countries of the day.
The situation in Western Europe, particularly Germany, was quite the same. The only major difference between European and American left-wing terrorist organizations was that the European groups tended to be more persistent, more violent, and more willing to acknowledge their ties to the communist cause of world revolution.
Two aspects of terrorism are inescapable: terrorism has been highly successful in surviving as an institution and perpetuating itself; and, on the other hand, it is becoming less and less successful at attaining its stated goals. In the short term, however, there is simply no other proven method whereby any petty radical with a cause can so quickly and easily be taken seriously by world leaders and governments. Terrorism has, in fact, become so successful in achieving notoriety that its use has been adopted by some governments. If a small group can gain attention and be taken seriously, one can well imagine the opportunities available to a national government which otherwise might appear quite unimportant in the international community.
PART C: TERRORISM IN THE PRESENT DAY
Terrorism in 1996 continued to cause grave concern and disruption in scores of countries. Combatting this menace remains a very high priority for the United States and many other nations. But finding clear "patterns" in this form of political violence is becoming more difficult.
The Department of State's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism focuses primarily on international terrorism involving citizens or territory of two or more states. It also describes but does not provide statistics on domestic terrorism aborad, which is an even more widespread phenomenon. The number of international terrorist incidents has fallen, from a peak of 665 in 1987, to 296 in 1996, a 25-year low. Moreover, about two-thirds of these attacks were minor acts of politically motivated violence against commercial targets, which caused no deaths and few casualties.
Yet while the incidence of international terrorism has dropped sharply in the last decade, the overall threat of terrorism remains very serious. The death toll from acts of international terrorism rose from 163 in 1995 to 311 in 1996, as the trend continued toward more ruthless attacks on mass civilian targets and the use of more powerful bombs. The threat of terrorist use of materials of mass destruction is an issue of growing concern, although few such attempts or attacks have actually occurred. Finally, domestic terrorism, in countries such as Algeria, India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, appears to be growing and is more serious, in gross terms, than international terrorism.
It is clear, in any case, that the damage to society from terrorism is very high, and not just in terms of the dead and wounded. Terrorism, by definition, is aimed at a wider audience than its immediate victims. Terrorists proved again in 1996 that they can command a worldwide audience for their crimes and cause great disruption, fear, and economic damage. A dramatic truck bombing of the Al Khubar apartment complex near Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in June killed 19 US airmen, wounded 240 other US citizens, and resulted in many other casualties. A series of suicide bombings in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem by extremist groups aiming to destroy the Middle East peace process killed more than 60 and led to early elections and a change of government in Israel. And at the year's end, Marxist terrorists in Lima, Peru, grabbed the spotlight by seizing the Japanese Ambassador's residence and hundreds of hostages.
Terrorism by religious fanatics and groups manipulating religion, especially Islam, for political purposes continued to dominate international terrorism in 1996. Organized groups such as HAMAS and the Palestine Islamic Jihad, that were behind the bus bombings in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and the al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya, which continued acts of terror in Egypt, remained active and dangerous. And freelance, transnational terrorists, many of whom were trained in Afghanistan and are backed by international terrorist financiers such as the Saudi dissident Usama Bin Ladin, are a growing factor. Ethnic terrorism in such places as Chechnya, Tajikistan, and Sri Lanka took a heavy toll, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party maintained its campaign of terror against Turkey.
Although the variety and complexity of terrorism and its dynamic quality are challenges to defining clear patterns, there has been a heartening trend among governments to condemn terrorism absolutely, irrespective of motive. One positive result of this growing policy of zero tolerance for terrorism is a decline in state-sponsored terrorism, although Iran, the primary state sponsor has not been deterred. As terrorism becomes more global, cooperation among states is indispensable. President Clinton has given high priority to counterterrorism in our diplomatic agenda, and the United States consults with dozens of governments and participates in a growing variety of multilateral initiatives against terrorism.
Six international counterterrorist meetings were held in 1996:
- The Philippines and Japan both hosted Asia and Pacific conferences on terrorism, the first of their kind in Asia. The United States participated in both.
- In March at the "Summit of Peacemakers," held at Sharm ash Shaykh, Egypt, and cohosted by President Clinton and President Mubarak, 29 delegations pledged to fight terrorism and to support the Middle East peace process. A follow-up Working Group of experts from these countries met thereafter in Washington.
- In April Peru hosted the Inter-American Specialized Conference on Terrorism in Lima, which confirmed the principle that terrorism, regardless of political motive, is a serious crime.
- In July 1996 ministers of the G-7 and Russia met in paris in response to a request from the G-7 summit in Lyon the previous year and endorsed 25 specific measures to improve security, prosecute and punish terrorists, tighten border controls, and prevent terrorist fundraising. They also called for a new international treaty outlawing terrorist bombings. The ministers also adopted further steps to protect mass transportation (both air and ground) and enhance law enforcement and counterterrorist capabilities in many areas.
The United States took several steps in 1996 to sharpen our tools against terrorism in this country and abroad. In April the President signed into law the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996. Among its many sections are a ban on fundraising in the United States by terrorist organizations to be designated by the Secretary of state, and improved means for excluding and deporting terrorists from the United States. Last August the President signed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996, which imposes sanctions on foreign companies that invest in the development of Iran's or Libya's petroleum resources. The purpose is to help deny revenues that could be used to finance international terrorism.
The United States has trained more than 19,000 foreign law enforcement officials from more than 80 countries in such areas as airport security, bomb detection, maritime security, very important person (VIP) protection, hostage rescue, and crisis management. We also conduct a research and development program to use modern technology to defeat terrorists.
We can be proud of the successes we have achieved, but we cannot be complacent. Terrorism is a dynamic, moving target. Our defenses and deterrence mechanisms must be aggressive and flexible. As President Clinton declared in April: "We will never surrender to terror. America will never tolerate terrorism. America will never abide terrorists. Wherever they come from, wherever they go, we will go after them. We will not rest until we have brought them all to justice."
PART D: CATEGORIES OF TERRORIST MOVEMENTS
We will begin with the premise that almost all ideologically inspired terrorists are extremists of one type or another who believe that the use of any means is justified by their particular ideological objective. In short, accepted norms of behavior are subordinated to the higher cause toward which the terrorist strives. Extremists are, by their very nature, intolerant of beliefs which differ from their own. We who are not extremists sometimes fail to realize the zeal with which extremists hold to their beliefs, no matter how irrational they may seem to us. The "true believer" extremist has quite the same difficulty understanding why everyone does not believe as he does, and by extension, tends to consider non-believers as enemies. There are no neutral parties; therefore, no innocent victims. One is either for his cause or against it, a friend or an enemy. It is this mentality which accounts for much of the behavior that non-extremists have difficulty comprehending. Not all extremists are terrorists, nor are all terrorists extremists, but the types overlap to sufficient degree as to justify comment and consideration. Extremist (terrorist) thought and behavioral patterns will be discussed at greater length in a later lesson. For the present, we will attempt to categorize terrorists and terrorist movements by espoused motivation, always keeping in mind that the reason the terrorist gives as justification for his activities may or may not have any bearing on his real motivation.
Politically motivated terrorism, in the context of left-wing political ideology, particularly as concerns left-wing terrorist groups, may lead one to equate the term "left-wing" with true communism. This is inaccurate and can lead to dangerous and misleading judgements. True communism is not a reality. It does not exist. Although most left-wing and other "communist" ideologies trace their philosophical beginnings to Marx, Engles and Lenin, numerous subordinate ideologies have split off from that movement in the past, and more will probably do so in the future. It is not possible within the constraints of this subcourse to discuss in detail the nuances of each and every shade of communist sub-ideology. We will concentrate, therefore, on those subordinate leftist ideologies which are most often espoused by left-wing terrorists and their organizations.
Marxist/Leninist is what most people think of when we discuss communist terrorist groups. In the early days of Lenin's political activism, he put forward the theory that the use of terrorism was sometimes justified in the furtherance of a just cause (communist revolution). Terrorism might or might not be necessary to bring about and win the revolution, but it would be used without reservation if it were felt that such a tactic was required. Lenin's philosophy included subversion of targeted governments, encouraging revolution by the masses, or even, if deemed desirable for his cause, peaceful coexistence with non-communist countries. In any event, all political activity, including the use of terrorism, would be subordinate to and under the control of the primary (communist) political organization. This particular ideology was the guiding principle of the Soviet Union from the 1918 revolution until 1991, when the communist party was overthrown. In today's society, we find 75 to 85 percent of all terrorists groups following the Marxist/Leninist ideology.
Leon Trotsky (born Lev Bronstein), a disciple and close confidant of Lenin, played a major role in winning the revolution and the ensuing civil war in the Soviet Union. Trotsky's philosophy on the use of terror differed radically from that of Lenin and Stalin. Trotsky believed that world revolution in all non-communist countries should be immediate; that the Soviet Union should inspire and use terrorism to the greatest degree in bringing about such immediate revolution; and that every political (communist) organization should have and use its own terrorist element. Trotsky condemned any idea of political coexistence with non-communist forms of government and considered Lenin's policy of subversion from within to be too slow and ideologically impure to further the cause of world revolution. Trotsky, who came in a distant second to Stalin in the power struggle after Lenin's death, was later assassinated by the NKVD (KGB) in Mexico City, Mexico. His philosophy, however, has lived on in some of the more radical elements of the extreme left-wing.
Mao Tse-tung received his political education in the Soviet Union during its early days. He led the overthrow of the Imperial Chinese Government and later the successful communist revolution against the Koumintang (the ruling political party in China led by Chiang Kaichek). Mao is considered by many to be the father of modern subversive insurgency and revolution. Whereas the communist revolution in Russia began in the cities and spread to the countryside, revolution in China, under Mao, began in the countryside and then spread to the centers of population. Although Marx and Engels preached that worldwide communist revolution would evolve in industrialized, capitalistic societies, Mao taught that such movements would best succeed in agrarian societies in what we now refer to as the "third world." Mao believed that communism could not, and should not, coexist with other forms of government. Like Trotsky, he encouraged the extensive use of terrorism as a primary tool in bringing about worldwide revolution by the masses. Mao took Trotsky's ideas a step further, however, in his belief that even after the revolution had been won, terrorism should continue as an instrument to enforce (communist) party purity. A glaring example of Mao's philosophy was the Cultural Revolution in China during the 1960s which all but returned China to the Stone Age. The Maoist philosophy of terrorism is considered to be the most violent and indiscriminate of all leftist sub-groups.
Fidel Castro and his Chief of Staff, Ernesto "Che" Guevara, adhered to the main-line Marxist/Leninist view of revolution. However, they, like Mao, adapted it to a rural setting, thus frequently using urban terrorist tactics in conjunction with rural activity. It is their example which is now followed in most (but not all) of the subversive insurgent groups in Latin America.
Today's anarchist/nihilist terrorist groups believe in and strive for the complete destruction of Western society as we know it. Many espouse support for and belief in communist imperialism for the good of the masses of the world. In reality, however, they propose only to destroy the targeted governments and other social institutions without advocating any real form of replacement government. They do not truly want revolution, only destruction. A number of American and West European Terrorist groups, the Red Army Faction (RAF) for example, are of this way of thinking.
The best way to summarize this ideology is to quote from a RAF statement: "Society is corrupt; it must be destroyed; that which comes later will be better." In specific terms, the major difference between anarchism and nihilism is that while anarchism calls for the destruction of existing governments and their controls, nihilism demands all of that in addition to destruction of all existing social institutions and structures.
Right-wing terrorist organizations are not quite as varied in their political and philosophical outlook as left-wing terrorist groups. It would be a mistake, however, to consider them as a philosophical and political entity. There are subtle (and some not so subtle) variations in outlook, nature and purpose among the right-wing groups just as there are among the left-wing groups. Within the right-wing, North American groups are almost homogenous in their rather modified view of reality, while European and Latin American groups tend to follow rather more closely the examples of Hitler and Mussolini.
The Neo-Nazi outlook on life is modeled after that of the National-Socialist German Workers Party (NSDAP)(Nazi) of Adolph Hitler. It has two distinct focal points: nationalism and racism. The nationalistic part of Neo-Nazism considers both an economic system (state controlled means of production) and militarism. Most Neo-Nazi groups emulate some form of Hitler's militaristic uniforms and mannerisms. There is a strong tendency toward the wearing of tan or brown "uniforms," complete with Sam Browne belts; the traditional arm band; and use of the Nazi stiff-arm salute. Some American groups have even established "Hitler shrines" for an almost religious worship of Adolph Hitler. Extreme nationalism, which advocates coexistence, believes that the current government is controlled by communists, socialists, and Jews. An excellent illustration of extreme beliefs is the American Neo-Nazi's description of the United States Government as the "Zionist Occupation Government (ZOG)", an entity upon which they have declared war. The proposed Neo-Nazi system somewhat resembles that of the extreme left, with its centralized (government and/or party) control of the economy and major means of production. The other major tenet of Nazism (and by extension Neo-Nazism) is racism. This includes both the claiming of racial superiority by their own group and proclaiming that inferior races (Jews, Blacks, and others) must be either subordinated or exterminated. In the case of European and American Neo-Nazis, the Aryan "race," defined as those of German, Scandinavian, Dutch, and English/Irish/Scotch descent, are genetically superior and destined to rule over all those of any other extraction. The major difference between European and American Neo-Nazi groups is that American groups do not stress the economic aspects of Nazism but rather usually portend a quasi-religious justification for their beliefs and actions. In particular, some American groups have reinterpreted the Bible in such a way as to not only explain but also demand the subjugation of non-Aryan groups and races. Given the implications of this quasi-religious outlook of their code, domestic Neo-Nazi terrorist groups must be considered somewhat religiously, as well as politically, inspired terrorists.
Neo-Fascism, modeled on the political ideology of Italy's Mussolini and Spain's Franco, differs very little from Hitler's Nazism in its nationalistic (both economic and militaristic) outlook and its emphasis on internal control and order. Neo-Fascism, like Fascism, lacks the racial extremism of Nazism. Contemporary Neo-Fascist groups tend to concentrate their attention on restoring the orderly and controlled society they envision as having previously prospered in Italy and Spain. To that end, they attempt to bring about a strong governmental reaction to their terroristic acts which they believe will result in a Fascist police state. They occasionally attempt to credit left-wing groups for their terrorist violence. Today's Neo-Fascist groups are found mostly in Italy, Spain, France, and a few South American countries.
Terrorists groups which might be categorized as nationalist/territorialist inspired are those who are (or who might claim to be) conducting activities to further the cause of their particular national, ethnic, or racial group, and to achieve independence or autonomy within a given geographic area. There may be, and usually is, a secondary political or religious motivation. Although these groups point to a limited geographical area as the focal point of their interest, they usually have no geographical limit to their activities. In fact, their targets may be far removed from what they claim as their "homeland." Many such groups have close operational and support ties with other terrorist groups who espouse a variety of political and religious motivations. There are even some who receive support from foreign governments. Although claiming to be motivated by a feeling of nationalism, most such terrorist groups enjoy a much broader base of popular support among the groups they claim to represent than do others who espouse purely political motivations. They are particularly popular among expatriot or emigre groups of like background living throughout the world. For example, the Provisional Branch of the Irish Republican Army is quite popular among those claiming Irish descent in the United States, particularly in New England and New York, and meets a large percentage of its financial requirements through donations from those supporters.
Religious terrorist groups, like political terrorists, claim as their membership those who hold extreme beliefs. They tend to be totally intolerant of any group which does not adhere to their creed. Like their politically inspired counterparts, they can justify (or rationalize) their actions as only doing what is necessary for a higher purpose. As uncompromising as political extremists may appear to be, they cannot compete in dedication and zeal to the religiously inspired terrorist. Their actions are not only done for the betterment of mankind, they are demanded by God. Unlike political ideology, religious beliefs, particularly fundamentalist beliefs, can and do transcend lesser loyalties such as those to country, ethnic group, political ideologies and even family ties. Loyalty and dedication to God comes before all else. We are dealing here with the extremes of extremism, bordering on fanaticism. This total dedication by the religiously inspired terrorist places the threat on a higher plane which requires a new level of understanding. As will be outlined in a later lesson, terrorist planning normally includes provisions for the safe getaway of the terrorist(s) upon completion of the terrorist act. However, when dealing with the religiously inspired terrorist, survival of the terrorist is not always required. What better way to die than while doing God's work and thus gaining an immediate one-way ticket to paradise. With religious extremism, the terrorist can rationalize not only the extermination of non-believers and infidels but also his own people and family if that's what might be required by God. This dissertation may appear to be an overstatement. It is not. The extremes of religious fanaticism cannot be overstated. History reveals that from the beginning of organized society, the number of wars, persecutions, exterminations and social upheavals motivated by religious rivals exceeds, that from any other single cause. When dealing with terrorist motivations, consider that the strongest are those concerning fundamental religious beliefs.
Establishment terrorism is often not considered terrorism but rather dismissed as oppressive internal measures of a dictatorship or police state. Throughout history, ruling groups have resorted to extremes of oppression to control their subjects. Such measures were rarely expressions of senseless brutality but rather well planned and executed programs with specific goals in respect to the actions and reactions desired from the ruled. The ultimate example of establishment terrorism as an institution is the "Thought Police," as depicted in George Orwell's 1984. The primary goal of such activity is to prevent an overthrow of the ruling group. The secondary objectives are to encourage desired patterns of behavior and to discourage activity that the ruling party or class believes to be detrimental to itself. In short, establishment terrorism is a methodology to ensure that the rulers remain on top and the ruled stay on the bottom. Some activities of the former internal security organizations of the Soviet Union could be considered establishment terrorism. Examples were the open use of informants at all levels of society to erode any feeling of trust between friends, neighbors, and even between family members; arrests for no apparent reason in the middle of the night, followed by a secret trial and imprisonment or death; the disappearance of persons without any charge or even knowledge of their fate. These were not mindless acts by a sadistic government. They were entirely pragmatic acts, specifically designed to instill fear in the general population and preempt any organized resistance by creating in the people a feeling of distrust among themselves. How can there be a conspiracy if you can't trust your co-conspirators? Dictatorships (which includes dictatorships of the proletariat) do not desire that they be loved by their subjects, only that they retain power. If one assumes that establishment terrorism is entirely pragmatic, designed to encourage or discourage specific behavioral patterns in a ruled population, how then can we explain such monstrous events as the attempted extermination of Jews and other groups by the Nazis or of the Armenians by the Ottoman Turks? In the case of the European Jews and Gypsies, one might well ask, "what was the clear-cut behavioral pattern that almost caused their extermination?" The answer is that the Nazi's program of extermination was not establishment terrorism which instills fear for the purpose of controlling population, but rather quite simply extermination for the sake of extermination. Establishment terrorism can exist only in nondemocratic countries where the rulers are not bound by laws. Unfortunately, a large number of the countries in today's world fall into this category.
Ideological mercenaries are persons who ply their terrorist trade to the highest bidder. They are ideological in that they limit their clients to those with whom they have at least some political or religious affinity. Persons in this category do not usually form their own groups, nor do they commonly perform terrorist operations on their own. Carlos the Jackal (born Illych Rameriz Sanchez) is the most widely known ideological mercenary. Born and raised in a devout communist family, Carlos sold his talents only to those terrorist organizations which adhered, at least in general terms, to his particular left-wing extremist philosophy. An example of group mercenaries would be the Japanese Red Army who conducted numerous operations on behalf of the Palestinians in exchange for terrorist training.
Non-ideological mercenary terrorists, like any other mercenary type, earn their daily bread by selling their expertise to the highest bidder. They will perform, on a contract basis, for any group which has the finances to pay. They have no more regard for political or religious consideration than a plumber, carpenter, or any other person with a marketable trade. It is strictly a business deal, no more and no less. This type is somewhat less common than the ideological mercenary. A few years ago, a Chicago criminal street gang, the El Rukn group, numbering in excess of 1,000 members, offered its services in the field of terrorism to Mr. Khaddafi of Libya for a sum in excess of one million dollars. The incident resulted in the conviction and jailing of several members of the group.
Politically inspired criminal terrorists are simply those whose motivations are, to at least some extent, both political and criminal. There are numerous examples of such groups, the Aryan Brotherhood (AB) being but one. The AB, an extensive prison gang operating both inside and outside the penitentiary system, maintains a close affiliation with the Aryan Nations and other right-wing extremist groups. AB members are criminals with a political bend. Their endeavors, both in and out of prison, include extortion, murder for profit, homosexual prostitution, illegal drugs and armed robbery. AB activities, both political and criminal, tend to target ethnic; racial; and political groups and individuals outside of their affiliation. Other groups involved in the so-called "narco-terrorism" may have crossed that fine line between a politically-inspired terrorist organization using criminal activities to finance their operations to becoming a criminally-inspired organization using politics as a rationalization for their criminal activities.
The non-politically motivated terrorist is discussed here only for the purpose of pointing out that terrorism is not unique to ideologically motivated groups. Activities of these organizations, although not within the official purview of Military Intelligence, are of interest from an academic viewpoint because of their effectiveness. The major non-political terrorist organization is the so-called Mafia, a strictly criminal organization which has successfully controlled major portions of Italy through use of terror tactics and which has enjoyed a measure of success in the United States. The Mafia's secret to success is the use of terrorist tactics as a means of controlling large segments of the population through fear, much the same way that a dictatorship uses establishment terrorism to control its subjects. The Mafia uses bombs, assassination and kidnapping much the same way that any "conventional" terrorist group does. Media publicity warns potential adversaries of their fate should they not cooperate with the Mafia or inform to the police. The Mafia should by no means be considered solely as a terrorist group, but rather as an example of how terrorist tactics may be adapted to non-ideological uses.
The use of terrorism as a tactic by insurgent groups is well documented. Its use during phase I of a subversive insurgency is to be taken for granted. One must realize that while terrorism may be used in an insurgency, terrorism is not always, and not even usually, indicative of insurgency. In a country beset with a subversive insurgency, the revolutionary forces will use terrorist tactics to further their cause by discrediting the existing government and controlling the population. Discrediting the government usually involves terrorist attacks on government or allied foreign officials, institutions and facilities. It is designed to show the target population that the government is impotent, unable to protect itself against the revolutionary forces, and cannot be expected to protect the general population. Like establishment terrorism in a dictatorship, the insurgents attempt to terrorize the target population to encourage or discourage certain behavior by the population. The insurgents will require the population to pay taxes; furnish logistical and manpower support; and to use insurgent, not government, institutions such as schools and other services. Discouraged activity will include cooperation with existing government, military, and police authorities; serving in those government services; paying of taxes, and so on. Terrorist activity by insurgent forces will be at the highest level during Phase I, will fall off during Phase II, and will be at its lowest level when the insurgency enters Phase III. As previously stated, terrorism is used as a tactic in a subversive insurgency, but acts of terrorism do not automatically indicate that a stability and support operations (SASO) is in progress. In essence, insurgent groups use terrorism as a tactic while terrorist groups use terrorism as a strategy.
Special interest groups, composed of members whose only common denominator may be an almost fanatical concern with a particular issue or interest, have taken to the use of terrorist tactics like a duck to water. Anti-nuclear, anti-abortion, peace, and environmentalist groups in particular have adopted terrorist tactics as a "legitimate" methodology to influence governments and whole societies. Although the participation of special interest groups in terrorist tactics is a relatively recent development, these groups have been responsible for extensive destruction of property; serious injury; and even death to innocent persons. While not usually considered in a discussion of terrorist types and groups, special interest groups can be just as dangerous as any terrorist organization. Some of these organizations are more than willing to wage death and destruction for the betterment of humanity as seen through their eyes. They cannot be ignored.
PART E: TERRORIST MOTIVATION
Terrorists are inspired by many different motives. Students of terrorism classify them into three categories: rational, psychological, and cultural. A terrorist may be shaped by combinations of these.
The rational terrorist thinks through his goals and options, making a cost-benefit analysis. He seeks to determine whether there are less costly and more effective ways to achieve his objective than terrorism. To assess the risk, he weighs the target's defensive capabilities against his own capabilities to attack. He measures his group's capabilities to sustain the effort. The essential question is whether terrorism will work for the desired purpose, given societal conditions at the time. The terrorists's rational analysis is similar to that of a military commander or a business entrepreneur considering available courses of action.
Groups considering terrorism as an option ask a crucial question: Can terrorism induce enough anxiety to attain its goals without causing a backlash that will destroy the cause and perhaps the terrorists themselves? To misjudge the answer is to risk disaster. Recent history offers examples of several groups that had apparently good prospects for success which paid the price of misjudging reaction to terrorism. In the early 1970s, the Tupamaros in Uruguay and the ERP (People's Revolutionary Army) and Montoneros in Argentina misjudged a hostile popular reaction to terrorism. They pushed the societies beyond their threshold of tolerance and were destroyed as a result. The same is true of several groups operating in Turkey in the late 1970s and, possibly, several Mafiosi families in Italy in the 1990s.
Psychological motivation for terrorism derives from the terrorist's personal dissatisfaction with his life and accomplishments. He finds his raison d'etre in dedicated terrorist action. Although no clear psychopathy is found among terrorists, there is a nearly universal element in them that can be described as the "true believer." Terrorists do not even consider that they may be wrong and that others' views may have some merit. Terrorists tend to project their own antisocial motivations onto others, creating a polarized "we versus they" outlook. They attribute only evil motives to anyone outside their own group. This enables the terrorists to dehumanize their victims and removes any sense of ambiguity from their minds. The resulting clarity of purpose appeals to those who crave violence to relieve their constant anger.
The other common characteristics of the psychologically motivated terrorists is his pronounced need to belong to a group. With some terrorists, group acceptance is a stronger motivator than the stated political objectives of the organization. Such individuals define their social status by group acceptance. Terrorists groups with strong internal motivations find it necessary to justify the group's existence continuously. A terrorist group must terrorize. As a minimum, it must commit violent acts to maintain group self-esteem and legitimacy. Thus, terrorists sometimes carry out attacks that are objectively nonproductive or even counterproductive to their accounted goal.
Another results of psychological motivation is the intensity of group dynamics among terrorists. They tend to demand unanimity and be intolerant of dissent. With the enemy clearly identified and unequivocally evil, pressure to escalate the frequency and intensity of operations is ever present. The need to belong to the group discourages resignations, and the fear of compromise disallows their acceptance. Compromise is rejected, and terrorist groups lean toward maximalist positions. Having placed themselves beyond the pale, forever unacceptable to ordinary society, they cannot accept compromise. They consider negotiation dishonorable, if not treasonous. This may explain why terrorist groups are prone to fracturing and why the splinters are frequently more violent than their parent group.
The Jewish experience in Palestine is a classic example of splintering. In 1931, Haganah broke from Haganah; in 1936, Irgun Svai Leumi split from Haganah B; and in 1940, Lochamei Herut Israel, or the Stern Gang, broke from Irgun. Each successive group was more rigid and violence-prone than its parent.
The psychodynamics also make the announced group goal nearly impossible to achieve. A group that achieves its stated purpose is no longer needed; thus, success threatens the psychological well-being of its members. When a terrorist group approaches its stated goal, it is inclined to redefine it. The group may reject the achievement as false or inadequate or the result of the duplicity of "them." Nicaragua's Recontras, The Basque ETA (Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, "Basque Fatherland and Liberty"), and many Palestinian radical groups apparently suffer from fear of success. One effective psychological defense against success is to define goals so broadly that they are impossible to achieve. Even if the world proclaims the success of a political movement, the terrorists can deny it and fight on.
Cultures shape values and motivate people to actions that seem unreasonable to foreign observers. Americans are reluctant to appreciate the intense effect of culture on behavior. We accept the myth that rational behavior guides all human actions. Even though irrational behavior occurs in our own tradition, we seek to explain it by other means. We reject as unbelievable such things as vendettas, martyrdom, and self-destructive group behavior when we observe them in others. We view with disbelief such things as the dissolution of a viable state for the sake of ethnic purity when the resulting ministates are economically anemic.
The treatment of life in general and individual life in particular is a cultural characteristic that has a tremendous impact on terrorism. In societies in which people identify themselves in terms of group membership (family, clan, tribe), there may be a willingness to self-sacrifice seldom seen elsewhere. (Note, however, that American soldiers are less surprised at heroic sacrifice for one's military unit; the difference among cultures is in the group with which one identifies.) At times, terrorists seem to be eager to give their lives for their organization and cause. The lives of "others," being wholly evil in the terrorists' value system, can be destroyed with little or no remorse.
Other factors include the manner in which aggression is channeled and the concepts of social organization. For example, the ambient level of violence is shaped by the political structure and its provisions for power transfer. Some political systems have no effective nonviolent means for the succession to power. A culture may have a high tolerance for nonpolitical violence, such as banditry or ethnic "turf" battles, and remain relatively free of political violence. The United States, for example, is one of the most violent societies in the world. Yet, political violence remains an aberration. By contrast, France and Germany, with low tolerance for violent crime, have a history of political violence.
A major cultural determinate of terrorism is the perception of "outsiders" and anticipation of a threat to ethnic group survival. Fear of cultural extermination leads to violence which, to someone who does not experience it, seems irrational. All human beings are sensitive to threats to the values by which they identify themselves. These include language, religion, group membership, and homeland or native territory. The possibility of losing any of these can trigger defensive, even xenophobic, reactions.
Religion may be the most volatile of cultural identifiers because it encompasses values deeply held. A threat to one's religion puts not only the present at risk but also one's cultural past and the future. Many religions, including Christianity and Islam, are so confident they are right that they have used force to obtain converts. Terrorism in the name of religion can be especially violent. Like all terrorists, those who are religiously motivated view their acts with moral certainty and even divine sanctions. What would otherwise be extraordinary acts of desperation become a religious duty in the mind of the religiously motivated terrorist. This helps explain the high level of commitment and willingness to risk death among religious extremist groups.
PART F: TERRORISM IN THE SPECTRUM OF CONFLICT
Figure 1-1. Terrorism across the Spectrum of Conflict.
With the development of nuclear and conventional weapons to ever higher levels of lethality and destruction, nations have become increasingly concerned with the potential for escalation in any armed conflict. This has caused greater reliance on those forms of conflict, such as terrorism, which lie at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. While terrorism is generally regarded as a weapon of the weak, nations often use terrorism since it is a cheap policy option in terms of resources. By using surrogates, the state employing terror runs no risk to its prestige, little risk of retaliation, and virtually no risk of escalation. Thus, so long as the relation between the state directing the act and the perpetrator remains unproven, the state using terrorism is insulated from the cost of the act. As depicted in Figure 1-1, terrorism is not a tactic which is limited to headline-grabbing acts carried out in an environment of nominal peace. The terrorist is an integral element of insurgency. His skills are employed in disrupting economic functions, demonstrating the government's incompetence, eliminating opposition leaders, and generally elevating the level of anxiety throughout a society. Terror is a major weapon in the arsenal of the insurgent regardless of the insurgent's philosophy or locale (rural or urban orientation). Predictably, military and police forces are among the prime targets for the insurgent terrorist. Carlos Marighella, writing in what has become the insurgent's bible, The Mini-Manual of the Urban Guerrilla, summarized the relationship of insurgent to security forces as follows:
"....it is necessary for every urban guerrilla to keep in mind always that he can only maintain his existence if he is disposed to kill the police and those dedicated to repression...."
PART G: FUTURE OF TERRORISM
Political violence will characterize the last years of this century and the early decades of the twenty-first century. One prominent form will be the practice of terrorism. The universal availability of weapons, explosives, and technologically sophisticated timing and triggering devices, along with the global communication revolution, adds to the terrorists' capabilities. Increased capabilities include coordinated, nearly simultaneous attacks in several countries, fax death threats, and comparison of target lists by computer. Concurrently, intrastate conflicts, political uncertainty, and growth of ethnic challenges to the administrative state are weakening the states' security capabilities. Coupled with the increasing porosity of state borders, these trends are making it easier for the terrorist and his supporters to move anywhere in the world with little change of being apprehended or even identified.
Future terrorism is likely to include higher than ever levels of violence. Hijackings, kidnappings, and driveby shootings will continue, but their shock effect has decreased with familiarity. Since terrorists need publicity to inspire fear, familiarity causes them to seek more unusual events that capture and hold public attention.
The March 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center in New York City may be typical of future terrorist attacks. If the bombing had gone as planned by the perpetrators, there might have been thousands of deaths. There was also a conspiracy to attack symbolic landmarks, including the Holland Tunnel and the United Nations headquarters, in and around New York that would have affected thousands of people and caused millions in property damage. It is not difficult to imagine the psychological effect of these types of attacks on the U.S. public.
Although technology aids in the defense against terrorism, it also provides terrorists with increased opportunities. Terrorists can operate in cyber space to destroy or manipulate information for their own purposes. Skilled "hackers" with terrorist intent can access all but the most secure data banks, stealing or changing information, or destroying it. This gives them the potential, for example, of manipulating the stock market for their own profit or to precipitate inflation or depression. There is evidene of large-scale counterfeiting of American currency to purchase weapons. This could cause serious economic disruption. Access to police and other security files can keep terrorists one step ahead of their government opponents.
Terrorists can follow the example of Iraq's Saddam Hussein and create ecological disasters by starting fires and causing chemical spills. For example, the forests of the American Northwest are vulnerable to arson. Seeking more spectacular attacks, terrorists may poison water supplies or blow up dams and levees. Chemical weapons have become increasingly powerful and easy to produce. Triggering devices have become more sophisticated. The potential for using weapons of mass destruction, including biological and nuclear material, exists.
Parallel to these ominous developments favoring the terrorist is a disturbing trend to resort to violence for an ever-widening range of causes. Terrorism is practiced on a global scale in support of criminal business initiatives, various social issues (for example, environmental and antiabortion extremists), ethnic conflicts (ranging from US street gangs to conflicts in Central Africa and South Asia), religious interpretation, traditional political power struggles, and insurgencies. Combined, these factors bode ill for the future and demand the attention of military commanders.
US military personnel will continue to be targets for terrorists for the same reason they have in the past. Collectively and individually, they symbolize US power. While no one will challenge the United States on the conventional battlefield in the foreseeable future, terrorist acts are likely to be the preferred form for expressing hostility toward the remaining superpower. Relative to the other forms of political violence, terrorism remains cheap and successful regarding limited objectives and carries low risk to the perpetrator. The activities that are likely to engage US military personnel in the near future occur in situations
Practice Exercise
