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LESSON 1
SOUTHWEST ASIA - OVERVIEW
Critical Task: None
OVERVIEW
LESSON DESCRIPTION:
In this lesson you will learn basic background information on the general characteristics and historical perspectives of Southwest Asia and the strategic significance of the region to US interests and Commonwealth of Independent States orientation.
TERMINAL LEARNING OBJECTIVE:
TASK: |
Describe basic background information on the general characteristics, historical perspectives, and strategic significance of Southwest Asia. |
CONDITION: |
Given access to extracts from CIA The World Factbook, DA Pam 550-24, DA Pam 550-25, DA Pam 550-34, DA Pam 550-47, DA Pam 550-183, DA Pam 550-185, and FM 34-72 (Coordinating Draft). |
STANDARD: |
Background information on the general characteristics, historical perspectives, and strategic significance of Southwest Asia will be in accordance with below listed references. |
REFERENCES: |
The material contained in this lesson was derived from the following publications: CIA, The World Factbook,1997.DA Pam 550-24. DA Pam 550-25. DA Pam 550-34. DA Pam 550-47. DA Pam 550-183. DA Pam 550-185. FM 34-72 (Coordinating Draft). |
INTRODUCTION
We are discussing the land and its physical features, the people and their languages, religions, and ways of life, as well as the impact of oil. Furthermore, we are providing a part on the history, which provides a perspective of Southwest Asia from the era when it served as a battleground for many would-be conquerors to the present, and the issues now confronting the independent Arab nations. Finally, we are considering the strategic significance of the region which has gained new importance, particularly as the result of the discovery and exploitation of major oil deposits during the past 55 years. This overview provides a base for understanding the fundamental characteristics of the region.
PART A: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS
1. The land. Southwest Asia covers approximately 5,544,000 square kilometers (km2). The boundaries are defined to the north by the southernmost ridges of the Caucasus Mountains and the Caspian Sea, to the west by the Mediterranean Sea, to the south by the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, and to the east by the eastern border of Iran (Figure 1-1). Most of Southwest Asia is arid and flat and contains some of the largest and most barren deserts on earth. Many areas around the seacoasts, however, are mountainous and receive adequate rainfall for agriculture. Irrigation systems in the river valleys also provide for agriculture and sustain some of the most densely populated areas in the world.
a. Landforms. Geographically, Southwest Asia can generally be categorized into three zones: north, central, and south (Figure 1-2).
(1) The northern sector is a zone of rugged mountains connected to the Turkish-Russian Mountains on the west and to the Himalayas on the east. It is a tangled belt of ranges running generally east to west and encloses the extensive plateau of Iran. The highest peak, Mount Damavand (5,602 meters (m)) in the Elburz Range of northern Iran, is covered with snow in the summer as well as in the winter. Moist air from the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas flows into these mountain ranges and provides sufficient precipitation in the western area. The interior plateaus present striking contrast to the coastal plains, varying from semidesert to barren deserts of salt and alkali.
(2) The central zone is more complex. It extends from the coastal area of the Sinai Peninsula, through northern Arabia and south of the Iranian Plateau, and down to the lowlands along the Persian Gulf. The Persian Gulf and its basin represent an area that holds the world's richest known deposits of petroleum. On the whole, this sector is less climatically harsh than the northern and southern areas. The Lebanon Mountains along the eastern Mediterranean coast absorb most of the precipitation from the prevailing easterly winds. The Zagros Mountain Range of western Iran also absorbs some of this moist air leaving less precipitation for the Iranian Plateau. The interior areas vary from scattered evergreens and shrubs to grasslands and semidesert.
(3) The southern zone is the most uniform. The Arabian Peninsula rises from the southeast to the northwest. The Asir Range in western Saudi Arabia and Yemen are the mountains that parallel the Red Sea. Southern mountains also run along the coastal area of Yemen paralleling the Gulf of Aden. The Hajar Mountains of Oman on the eastern side of the peninsula are an extension of the Iranian Zagros Range. Except for the high mountains of Yemen and Oman, the southern area is generally the most barren land in Southwest Asia.
Figure 1-1. Southwest Asia
Figure 1-2. Landform zones.
b. Rivers. One major river systems traverses the Southwest Asia land mass: the Tigris-Euphrates, which flows from the north in a southeasterly direction through Syria and Iraq. The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers join at Al Qurnah, Iraq, about 193 km from the Persian Gulf, to form the Shatt al Arab (Waterway of the Arabs). Fed by rains and snows, this river valley provides favorable locations for human settlement and development (Figure 1-1).
c. Shorelines. In general, shorelines are rugged and dominated by cliffs or mountain ranges. Coastal plains are found along the Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the eastern Mediterranean.
d. Climate.
(1) Southwest Asia has a long, intensely hot summer and a mild winter. Temperatures vary with the location; but they may, as an example, climb to 45 degrees (O) centigrade (C) in Saudi Arabia and Iran in the summer. Winter temperatures in Southwest Asia range from 4.5O C in the north to 10O C in the south. The temperatures in the higher mountains often drop below -17O C in the winter (Figure 1-3).
(2) Many parts of the Middle East, especially along the shores of the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas, receive an annual rainfall of about 75 centimeters (cm) attributed mostly to winter rains (Figure 1-4). Inland, the average rainfall drops sharply. The northern countries receive about 25 cm and the plateaus about 8 to 10 cm a year. The southern and southwestern parts of Saudi Arabia lie in the monsoon zone and receive rainfall during the months of July, August, and September.
2. The people. The people of Southwest Asia have been classified as groups and subgroups based on physical type, language, religion, social order, means of livelihood, and national beliefs. However, any single criteria of classification can be misleading, since languages cross religious and social lines, and races cross linguistic and national boundaries. Since gaining independence, Southwest Asian people are now generally classified along nationalistic lines. Nevertheless, the criteria of languages, religions, and ways of life still do not necessarily correspond neatly with each nation's boundaries. For this reason, it is necessary to understand and appreciate these criteria.
a. Religions.
(1) Southwest Asia gave birth to Islam, and today it is the religion of approximately 90% of the area's population. Christianity and Judaism also originated in Southwest Asia; and there are significant numbers of Christians and Jews living there today -- approximately 6 to 8% Christians, 2% Jews, and 1% other. The religions of Southwest Asia are shown at Figure 1-5.
Figure 1-3. Climate.
Figure 1-4. Rainfall.
Figure 1-5. Religions.
(2) Islam is frequently but improperly known in the West as Mohammedanism, identifying it with the religion's founder and prophet, Mohammad. Islam had spread throughout Arabia by the time of Mohammad's death in 632 A.D. and continued throughout Southwest Asia in the following century. In 656 AD, a dispute arose over the issue of the rightful succession of Islamic leaders. This dispute led to the division of Islam into two rival sects: the Sunna or Sunni Muslims and the Shia or Shiite Muslims. Later, the Shiites split into rival subsects, the more common known as Shias or Shiites. Shiism has its own dissidents who became Ismailis, Alawites, Druze, and the Assassins. Although the Sunnis have remained more uniform in their beliefs, differences in interpretation of religious law, the Sharia, led to the adherence to one or the other of the four "schools of law": Hanefite, Malikite, Shafite, or Hanbalite. The Sunni division of Islam is predominant throughout Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Shia is the state religion of Iran and portions of Yemen.
(3) Christian groups in Southwest Asia are the Greek Orthodox in Syria and Lebanon, the Armenian Orthodox in Syria and Lebanon, the Armemian Orthodox scattered through all the major urban centers in the western areas, the Syrian Orthodox, the Jacobites, and a small group of Nestorians. Roman Catholicism is principally represented by the various Maronite, Greek Catholic, Coptic Catholic, and Syrian Catholic churches. The largest concentration of Roman Catholics is found in Lebanon and Syria, with the Maronite Church being the most important.
(4) Like Islam and Christianity, Judaism is monotheistic; that is, it supports the belief in one supreme being or God. Adherence to Judaism provides the basis for identification as a Jew and, particularly in Southwest Asia for identification with the country of Israel. As with Islam, fundamentalist Jewish groups seek to expand the role of religion in their society. While communities of Jews were found in most of the urban centers of Southwest Asia prior to 1948, the most significant body of Jews today is found in Israel where Orthodox Judaism prevails.
b. Languages.
(1) The major linguistic groups in Southwest Asia are Semitic and Iranian. Each of these groups, in turn, contains several distinct languages and an even larger number of dialects (Figure 1-6).
(2) Semitic languages originated in Southwest Asia and are spoken by the majority of the areas's population. Arabic, a semitic language, spread from the Arabian Peninsula during the Arab conquests that followed the rise of Islam in the seventh century. The Koran (Quran), the Islamic bible, standardized literary Arabic; but the spoken language splintered into many dialects. Arabic-speaking people probably constitute 55% of the Southwest Asian population. The major Arabic dialects are generally referred to as Syrian, Iraqi, and Arabian. There are, however, extensive variations in grammar, vocabulary, and pronunciation within each of these subgroups.
(3) Farsi (Persian) is the language of the largest number of Iranians and is the official language of Iran. Although not considered part of the Semitic language group, it is written in a modified Arabic script. Other languages of this group are Kurdish, spoken in Iran and Iraq, and Baluchi, also spoken in Iran.
(4) Hebrew, which at one time virtually disappeared as a living language, was revised and modernized by Jewish settlers in Palestine. It is now the official language of Israel.
Figure 1-6. Languages.
c. Ways of life.
(1) Traditionally, Southwest Asia has been divided into three life styles: those of the nomadic herdsmen, the farmers, and the city dwellers. The ancient social structure of life styles has been significantly altered in modern times.
(2) Prior to independence, modernization emerged as the result of military intervention, economic and political influences, missionary activity, educational institutions, and formal programs of change and development that were established by Europeans or Americans and instituted by various heads of state. Since independence, the national modernization process has continued more extensively in the oil-rich countries of Southwest Asia. The comparison of modernization to traditional elements varies considerably from one country to another. Relatively large westernized elements exist in Lebanon, and Israel and within the small modernized elite in the oil-producing countries.
(3) Despite this process of modernization, a constant struggle continues between the modernizers and the traditionalists in each of the countries. The religious institution has been progressively overshadowed by political authority. Education and economic development have expanded opportunities and have altered family unity. These and other factors have caused an expansion of the middle class. This has resulted in the shifting of power away from a small segment of the upper class and in the transfer of control of major economic resources and wealth to middle class dominated governments. Modernization has not, however, won out over traditionalism. In many parts of Southwest Asia there are signs of religious assertiveness. Some fundamentalists are challenging contemporary regimes and calling for a return to ancient society. Others advocate a greater involvement of Islam in the political and social structures of the nation.
d. Population. The population of Southwest Asia is distributed unevenly over the region. Given the extreme aridness of large parts of the landscape, the relative availability of water tends to determine the pattern of population density. The valleys of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers are heavily populated. Also of importance are the highland areas and adjacent plains which receive sufficient rainfall to maintain extensive agricultural centers. Coupled with the normal increase in city populations, the movement from the rural areas has resulted in a tremendous expansion of urban centers over the past 30 years (Figure 1-7).
Figure 1-7. Population density.
3. The economy. Throughout its history, Southwest Asia has been dependent on agriculture for its economic survival. This situation was altered considerably during the second half of the 20th century when the oil industry expanded substantially and became the single most important factor in the economy of Southwest Asia. The large petroleum fields in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and UAE have about two thirds of the world's known oil reserves. In addition, modest oil discoveries were made in Syria and Yemen.
a. For many years the development of Southwest Asian oil resources was accomplished by European and US companies which held the concessions and provided the capital for production. This included control over the exploitation, rates of development, production schedules, and pricing of oil. In 1960 the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was formed by the oil-producing countries of Southwest Asia and by Venezuela in an effort to increase their bargaining power with the oil companies. Following the Arab-Israeli War of 1973, the OPEC governments assumed control of the industry, including the setting of prices and rates of production. In most cases, oil production was nationalized. Obtaining a greater share of the revenues was a major factor in the drive for control by the oil countries. The revenues derived from this major industry have been devoted to modernizing the oil-producing countries and have been used as a means for investing in the economies of the Western nations. This allocation has created an imbalance in the area's economy, both regionally and within individual countries. Several nations of Southwest Asia have little (Syria and Yemen) or no oil (Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon) wealth; others have extensive wealth derived from the production of oil products. Within the oil-rich countries, two distinct economies exist: a highly developed oil industry sector, and a marginal sector of farmers, unskilled workers, and minor industries. A concerted effort is being made to lessen these imbalances and to develop diversified economies. Furthermore, the sharing of wealth between the "haves" and the "have-nots" is necessary to promote the economic growth and political stability of Southwest Asia.
b. The ever-increasing demand for oil and the subsequent flow of wealth have given the oil-producing nations of Southwest Asia significant world political and economic leverage. The US is partially dependent on Southwest Asian oil, and Europe and Japan have established almost total dependence. The Russians have shown an increasing interest as well. Holding the majority of the world's proven oil reserves makes Southwest Asia of major concern to all industrial nations.
4. Strategic waterways. Much of the strategic importance of Southwest Asia has been tied to its international waterways. The seas and gulfs which intrude deeply into the landmass of Southwest Asia have been routes of trade, transport, and military operations for centuries. Control over the narrow straits that connect the waterways with each other and with the oceans is a matter of international concern (Figure 1-8).
Figure 1-8. Strategic waterways.
a. The Mediterranean Sea lies between Europe, Asia, and Africa with the Strait of Gibraltar connecting the western Mediterranean with the Atlantic Ocean. In the southeast, the Suez Canal allows ships to sail from the Mediterranean into the Red and Arabian Seas and the Indian Ocean. The Mediterranean reaches its deepest point (4,594 m) in the Ionian section south of Italy; it is about 300 m deep at the Strait of Gibraltar. This has been an important avenue for cultural and commercial exchange between Southwest Asia and the Western world for many years. Today, oil-consuming nations rely on the international waters of the Mediterranean for movement of petroleum from the pipeline terminals of Southwest Asian countries. The US and other aligned nations have naval fleets operating in this important area on a year-round basis.
NOTE: The former USSR also had a naval fleet in this area, however, the USSR was abolished in December 1991. This country is presently referred to as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The Independent State of Russia will probably take over the former Soviet Navy. The future strategy of the CIS or Russian Navy remains to be seen.
b. The Arabian Sea lies between Arabia and India and is considered part of the Indian Ocean. It is bordered by Iran and Pakistan on the north. The Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf (Arabian Gulf to the Arabs), and Gulf of Oman are considered extensions of the Arabian Sea. Several islands in the Arabian Sea are used as naval and air bases. Socotra, a possession of Yemen, had been a port of call for the former Soviet Navy. Masirah Island off the coast of Oman presently serves as an Omani military base, and the US has access to the Masirah air base facilities. The US has similar access to the Omani mainland port of Salalah for its naval vessels.
c. The Red Sea separates the Arabian Peninsula from Northeast Africa. It is about 2,253 km long and is no wider than 354 km. It has an average depth of about 600 m and covers 433,462 km. Large reefs, which are present except in a center channel in the southern half, make the sea dangerous for vessel navigation. The shore is barren with high mountain ranges on the east. Low sand hills and rocky tablelands line the west coast which is bordered by many coral reefs.
d. The Persian Gulf separates Iran from Arabia. It is connected to the Gulf of Oman by the Strait of Hormuz. The gulf is about 805 km long and 370 km wide at its widest point. The principal islands in the gulf are the Bahrain Group and Qeshm. The Persian Gulf is one of the largest and oldest sources of the worlds's pearl supply and ranks as one of the principal oil-exporting areas.
e. The Suez Canal is the longest restrictive waterway in the area. It is about 160 km long and flows from the upper Red Sea into the eastern Mediterranean. The canal is located entirely within Egypt and is owned by the Egyptian Government. The two excavated sections of the canal are separated by the Great Bitter Lake and Lake Timsah. The Ismailia Canal joins the Suez at Ismailia and runs westward into the Nile. The Suez Canal is the most convenient and rapid water route between Europe and the East.
f. The Strait of Tiran marks the junction of the Gulf of Aqaba with the Red Sea. Although of little importance to world shipping, it is vital to the interests of Israel and Jordan whose southern ports lie at the head of the gulf. The Israeli port of Eilat serves as a terminal for a pipeline which transports oil to the Mediterranean. Enterprise Passage, the only safe channel, is about 1.2 km wide and can be controlled easily from either Sinai or Tiran Island. Egyptian occupation of Tiran Island on 1 Jun 67 was the final straw for Israel. It directly resulted in Israeli decision to attack the Arabs on 5 Jun 67.
g. The Strait of Bab al Mandeb is located at the southern end of the Red Sea. It is bordered by Yemen on the east and Djibouti on the west. The strait is divided into two channels by Perim Island, a 13 km2 rock belonging to Yemen. The western channel has a width of 16 km and is the main route for transiting ships. The western channel is considered an international waterway and is governed by international law. The Strait of Bab al Mandeb, along with the Suez Canal, is important to world shipping and provides the most direct route from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. The Soviets operated a naval base at Aden on the southern coast of Yemen; in 1989-90, the Soviets began withdrawing from Aden. Across the Gulf of Aden, naval facilities at Berbera, Somalia, serve as a base for the US Navy.
h. The Strait of Hormuz lies at the southern end of the Persian Gulf and is bordered by Oman on the west and by Iran on the east. The 274 km strait averages about 80 km in width from Oman, around the tip of the Musandam Peninsula, and broadens to about 129 km at the Tunbs Islands in the Persian Gulf. Iran located its Silkworm antiship missile batteries around Hormuz (in 80 km range from Oman). Oil tankers, which make up most of the traffic through the strait, carry about 50% of the world's oil requirements. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint at which shipping from the Persian Gulf could conceivably be blocked at any time. Because the strait is too deep and wide to be blocked by sunken ships, naval and air power would be required to close it. As an international waterway, closure would impact severely on the world market. It would curtail oil shipping from Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
i. Relatively good port and air facilities exist throughout Southwest Asia. The international waterways discussed earlier provide avenues for surface movement from all parts of the world to Southwest Asian countries. Air facilities have expanded significantly and have become another major means of transportation. Air travel is available within all major zones of the world and Southwest Asia. Ports and air facilities are discussed in more detail in the respective country chapters. The approximate travel distances from various parts of the world to Southwest Asia are shown at Figure 1-9.
Figure 1-9. Travel distances.
PART B: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
1. Early development. Southwest Asia was among the first areas of the world to develop civilization. Many empires sought control of the area because of its important location. It became a battleground from 3100 to 2500 B.C. when Egypt and Mesopotamia ruled the entire region. The area was dominated in turn by the Assyrians (910-612 B.C.), the Persians (539-331 B.C.), the Romans (200 B.C.-100 A.D.), and again by the Persians (200 A.D.). The Arab conquest occurred in 630-640 A.D. and was followed by the arrival of the first European Crusaders in 1097 and the revival of Arab power in 1200. Mongol devastation of the region followed in the 1200s. The Ottoman Turks then ruled the region from the 1500s to the early 1900s.
2. Western influence.
a. With the outbreak of World War I came the disintegration of Ottoman control of Southwest Asia and the expansion of European influences. The Turks joined the side of the Central Powers (Germany and Austria-Hungary) in hopes of regaining and controlling some of the lost Ottoman provinces. Meanwhile, the Allied Powers (Britain, France, and Italy) encouraged the Arabs to revolt against Turkish rule by promising them independence.
b. The majority of World War I fighting in Southwest Asia took place in the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire. Arab nationalists rose in revolt against the Turks and sought the aid of the British. The British responded with military and financial aid, along with promises of independence after the war. At the same time, however, the British were concluding secret treaties with their French, Italian, and Russian allies for the division of the Ottoman Empire. They were also negotiating with the leaders of the Zionist movement on the Palestine issue. In 1917 Britain issued the Balfour Declaration supporting in principle a national homeland in Palestine for the Jewish people. Post World War I peace settlements established a mandate system of British and French rule in preparation, it was promised, for eventual self-government in the conquered Arab provinces. Only in the Arabian Peninsula was Ottoman rule replaced by independent Arab governments. Initially, the Arabs in Syria and Iraq resisted the mandates but were forced into submission.
c. At this point of Southwest Asian history, with virtually the entire area under direct or indirect foreign rule, nationalist forces began to reverse the tide. Turkish nationalists defeated foreign and domestic opponents, forced the allies to negotiate a new peace treaty, and established a nationalist, secular republic. Persia (later renamed Iran) refused to ratify the British treaty of 1919. A military coup in 1921 overthrew the Persian ruler and instituted a strongly nationalistic and modernizing regime -- the first shah of the Pahlavi Dynasty of Iran.
d. From about 1927 to 1935, a temporary calm prevailed between Southwest Asian nationalism and European imperialism. Young Arab nationalism had failed to eject the "imperialists" and was therefore compelled to accept European control of Arab internal affairs. Although the imperial powers had conceded independence to Turkey and Iran and allowed the exercise of self-government by the Arab-speaking successor states of the Ottoman Empire, this was done with varying degrees of safeguard for the strategic and economic interests of the imperial powers. Southwest Asia ceased to be a major source of international tension during this period except for Palestine where Jewish-Arab rivalry led to the start of violent outbreaks. In 1938 the British Government sought a settlement of the Palestine problem through a conference with the Jews, Palestinian Arabs, and representatives of other Arab states. In this time period, the advancing menace of war in Europe preoccupied the concerns of Britain. When the conference ended in a deadlock, the British issued a White Paper promising independence for Palestine in 10 years and limiting Jewish immigration to Palestine. The Jews denounced the White Paper as incompatible with the Balfour Declaration and the Palestine Mandate of 1917. World War II, however, pushed this issue aside until 1948.
3. Post-World War II developments.
a. During World War II the majority of the Arab countries displayed little enthusiasm for active participation in the war, preferring to remain neutral. Those countries which did declare war on the Axis powers did so only after the identity of the victors was evident. The Southwest Asian states, perceiving that this was not their war, continued to attach primary concern to gaining independence.
b. By the end of World War II, virtually all of Southwest Asia had formal independence, but the British still had significant economic, political, and military influence in a number of Arab states. It was not until a new wave of more radical revolutionary governments, often led by the military, overthrew the conservative parliamentary and monarchical regimes that the special position of the British ended. Just after World War II the Palestinian issue came to a head. In 1947 the British turned the Palestinian problem over to the United Nations (UN). A UN special committee recommended ending the British mandate and partitioning Palestine into an Israeli and an Arab state. Although the majority of Arab countries rejected any idea of partition, the proposal obtained the necessary two-thirds majority in the UN General Assembly. As British forces were rapidly withdrawing in 1948, the Palestinian Arabs and the Israelis became locked in guerrilla warfare. The Palestinian Arabs were no match for the largely European-trained Jews, who not only gained independence for Israel, but ended up with more land than the UN had negotiated.
c. A major outgrowth of the Arab-Israeli conflicts, and one of the most persistent problems that has continued to the present, is that of the Palestinian refugees. With no land to call home, they have been displaced throughout various countries in Southwest Asia in refugee camps.
Militants among the refugees have formed guerrilla and terrorist groups known collectively as the fedayeen "men of sacrifice." Their primary goal is to prevent Israel and the Arab countries from negotiating a peace settlement that does not provide for a Palestinian homeland.
4. Patterns of conflict. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been wars, revolutions, and other forms of armed conflicts involving the countries of Southwest Asia. Prior to 1945 conflict took the form of world wars and the Ottoman suppression efforts. Since 1945 at least 20 conflicts have occurred: 15 between Southwest Asian nations and 5 internal struggles. These figures do not include the numerous terrorist actions which have occurred in Southwest Asia, and those outside Southwest Asia which have involved Southwest Asian terrorists.
5. Current issues.
a. The history of Southwest Asia for the past 30 to 40 ears has been dominated by certain major issues. The Arab-Israeli conflicts, with the participation of the majority of the surrounding Arab nations, have persisted throughout this period. Encouraging developments in the quest for peaceful solutions came about during the Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt The contest for leadership of the Arab world and the search for some form of Arab unity has been effective only when the internal affairs of the individual nations have appeared to be affected by outside influences. Otherwise, the Arab nations have had little success in unity and have even resorted to warring among themselves on occasion. The rivalry between the former USSR and the West for influence in the area has placed this strategic crossroad of the world in the forefront of international tension. Several Arab nations have openly sided with the former USSR, while others sought to seek the aid and attention of the US.
b. Despite this changing pattern of superpower friendship, the Arab nations have pursued the elimination of foreign bases, economic concessions (particularly concessions to foreign petroleum companies), and other special privileges. The creation of systems of government best suited to providing political, economic, and social progress without the destruction of religious and national heritages has been challenged. Some fundamentalists prefer a return to ancient Islamic society, while others advocate a greater involvement of Islam in the political and social structure. Overshadowing many of these current issues is the subject of how the oil producing nations of Southwest Asia will employ their petroleum resources to achieve their economic, political, and social goals. Because of the importance of all these issues to the entire world, it is likely that Southwest Asia will continue to remain a focus of international attention for years to come. The Gulf War 91 and subsequent US/former USSR sponsored peace conferences bring optimism to the Arab-Israeli and to the Palestinian problem.
PART C: STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE
1. Strategic importance. Almost since the beginning of Western civilization, Southwest Asia has been of fundamental strategic importance. It has been, particularly in the second half of the 20th century, of paramount economic importance to the world because of its vast oil resources. Bitter political disputes that have led to several regional wars have kept the area in constant turmoil and have threatened the peace of the world. Issues of the past 30 to 40 years have evolved around access to the oil regions, the Arab-Israeli conflicts, and the pressures of the international system caused by the rivalry of interested powers. The single most obvious and worrisome issue, however, continues to be access to Southwest Asian oil.
2. US interests. The US is vitally interested in the future of Southwest Asia. Despite some success in conservation measures and reduced imports, the US continues to remain dependent on foreign energy resources and primarily on oil generated by the OPEC countries. The centerpiece of this organization is Saudi Arabia, by far the principal provider of US oil and the country which holds about 25% of the world's total proven reserves. The US Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the loss of Saudi Arabian oil for one year would reduce the gross national product (GNP) of the US by approximately $300 billion, increase our unemployment rate by 2% and radically accelerate US inflation. It would also impact severely on the economies of Europe and Japan. For these reasons the US and its allies have a vital strategic and national interest in the oil-producing countries of Southwest Asia. On the other hand, these countries recognize that their oil deposits will not last forever and that the continued strength and health of the Western economies are essential to the health of their own economies. The relationship between these countries and the US will also continue to be heavily based on their access to US technology and to those US citizens who can assist them in modernizing their societies. The presence of approximately 35,000 American citizens in Saudi Arabia testifies to the extent of this relationship.
3. Implications of destabilization.
a. The security relationship of the US to the Southwest Asian countries is based on the acceptance that each country is sovereign and independent. Cooperation between various countries in Southwest Asia and the US has been affected by issues in which differences of opinion exist among the US, CIS, and the nations of Southwest Asia. These issues have caused destabilization implications in the area.
b. Foremost among such issues is the establishment of a just and lasting settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Progress in this peace process has been slow. In 1979 Egypt negotiated directly with Israel and signed a treaty of peace that has been partially implemented. Many Arab leaders, while reluctant to consider full diplomatic relations with Israel, openly talk of peace agreements. Jordan is prepared to recognize Israel and to agree to direct negotiations, but Jordan is concerned with the future of the West Bank. Syria also talks about peace, but is concerned about the Golan Heights annexed by Israel and Israel's reluctance to leave Lebanon. Lebanon is willing to deal directly with Israel but must first find a solution to the struggles within its own borders. Overshadowing all of these concerns is the issue of Palestinian participation in the peace process. In December 1991 Jordan and Syria started negotiating with Israel per US/CIS brokered peace conference. Lebanon has achieved some measure of stability by virtue of Syria disarming the militias; peace talks have begun in Lebanon.
c. The future of the Palestinians may be the most difficult problem to solve in the Arab-Israeli conflict. One factor that makes this issue so complex is that the Palestinian people are scattered throughout Southwest Asia. A second complicating factor is disagreement over a spokesman for the Palestinians. A third factor concerns the appropriate role of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in future peace talks. The PLO has yet to recognize Israel and has not accepted the right of self-determination for all Palestinian people. A final factor is the military defeat of the PLO at the hands of the Israelis in Lebanon and so the loss of a focal point for PLO leadership. The Palestinians have been represented at the peace talks with Israel. Arafat of the PLO has indicated he is willing to recognize Israel and he is willing to negotiate directly. The problem is Israel's unwillingness to talk to the PLO.
d. The Iranian revolution introduced to Southwest Asia the turmoil of a troubled country and the impact of militant Islam. The bitter results of this revolution may linger between the US and Iran for some time. Efforts to keep Iran from adopting communist ideology will inevitably dominate future US policy toward that country. The importance of Iran's location in proximity to the Soviet and Afghanistan borders and the Strait of Hormuz is of vital concern to US interests.
e. The conflict between Iran and Iraq began in 1980 and stems from a territorial dispute over land boundaries between these two neighboring countries, ideological differences, personal hatred between the leaders, and competition for regional prominence. The war between these two major oil producers threatened to destabilize the region. This conflict continued through August 1988 when a cease fire was signed, but no peace settlement has yet been achieved. In August 1990 Iraqi troops occupied Kuwait. The United Nations urged Iraq to leave Kuwait by mid January 1991, but to no avail. US and multi-national troops were rushed into Saudi-Arabia in response to an urgent request from the rulers of Saudi-Arabia and Kuwait. After thousands of bombing raids onto Kuwait and Iraq the ground war started which ended in the US and multi-national forces victory. Kuwait was liberated, but the situation in Iraq is still unstable.
4. Soviet orientation. Soviet intervention in modern Southwest Asian history stemed from the World War II (WWII) era with its attempts to regain borderlands from Iran that were rebuffed by the US through the Truman Doctrine. The Soviets occupied the five northern provinces of Iran during WWII. After the war, the Shah tricked the Soviets into withdrawing and they were afraid of US/UK intervention should they attempt to reoccupy. After Khrushchev came to power, Soviet policy gradually became oriented to more active support of various Southwest Asian nationalist regimes and to siding with the Arabs in their conflict with Israel. An underlying factor in former Soviet interests has always been a desire to cutoff NATO access to the oil and to secure warm water ports, not only for trading purposes but to support the ever-increasing and widely dispersed former Soviet Russian navy fleets. The invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviets was interpreted as the first stage in a new era of Soviet involvement in Southwest Asian affairs. As previously stated, the USSR was abolished in December 1991 and the CIS was formed with Russia and the Ukraine arguing over the control of the former Soviet fleet. CIS orientation toward Southwest Asia is presently unclear and it needs to be seen if the CIS pursues former Soviet interests.
5. International concerns. Since the revolution in Iran, the political balance in Southwest Asia has been in a state of flux except for the position of Saudi Arabia. The war between Iran and Iraq, the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, and events in Lebanon had added further destabilization in the region. US and multinational forces liberated Kuwait and forced Iraq into a peace settlement. However, Iraq appears to rearm their forces and Iran is obtaining arms from China. A bright outlook is that the former Soviet Navy left Aden in 1990. Furthermore, the former USSR have withdrawn their support for Syria and other countries in the region. Ethiopia fell to the rebels and former Soviet presence there has also become a non-entity. Former Soviet presence in this entire region has basically disappeared due to economic problems in the new CIS. Additionally, ongoing peace talks between Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, PLO and Israel may succeed in lasting peace. Sixty percent of the free world's oil supply is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and any threat to this flow could jeopardize world peace. The US cannot afford to ignore these facts. The relationship of the US to the area will continue to be influenced by Southwest Asian countries concern for independence and the concern for possible Iranian, Iraqi or outside intervention into Southwest Asia that would be counter to vital US national interests.
Practice Exercise
