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Ruling Georgian Dream On Pace To Extend Control Of Parliament

By RFE/RL's Georgian Service October 26, 2024

TBILISI -- The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party is on pace to extend its control of parliament, casting a dark cloud over the country's future membership in the European Union.

Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, garnered 53 percent of the vote in the pivotal October 26 election, according to preliminary results from the Central Election Commission.

Four opposition parties crossed the 5 percent threshold to secure representation in parliament. The Coalition for Change, Unity -- To Save Georgia, Strong Georgia, and For Georgia, which combined received more than a third of the vote, will receive about 62 seats to Georgian Dream's 88.

The turnout was nearly 59 percent with just over 2 million citizens voting, the Central Election Commission said, the highest since 2012, when Georgian Dream first came to power.

The vote was cast as a defining moment for the South Caucasus country, which finds itself in the thick of the standoff between Moscow and the West.

Georgian Dream portrayed the elections as a choice between war and peace, claiming an opposition victory would drag Georgia into another war with Russia. The two countries fought a brief war in August 2008 that cemented Russian control over part of Georgia's territory.

The opposition has framed the vote as a choice between the West and Russia and between democracy and authoritarianism, a narrative echoed by officials in the United States and Europe, who have been critical of Georgian Dream for democratic backsliding.

Tensions were high in the run-up to the vote, with Georgian Dream claiming the West was interfering in the election and the opposition accusing Russia of spreading disinformation.

In a sign of the potential for protest in the vote's aftermath, exit polls conducted on behalf of pro-government and opposition organizations showed wildly different results.

Georgian Dream received 56 percent in the exit poll conducted by pro-government Imedi TV. Meanwhile, it did not receive more than 42 percent in the two opposition exit polls.

The leaders of Coalition for Change and Unity -- To Save Georgia, which combined received 21 percent of the vote, said they would not recognize the results of the vote.

For the first time, Georgia used a new electronic ballot-counting system -- with a paper backup -- allowing results to be announced just a few hours after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time. The Central Election Commission said there were only minor glitches.

Possibly seeking to stave off street protests, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, a member of Georgian Dream, warned the opposition that any "illegal" actions "will be met with a very harsh reaction from the state."

Street Violence

Scuffles and accusations of fraud surfaced during the vote.

An RFE/RL correspondent reported an incident in the southern city of Marneuli, where a member of an opposition party in a voting station was allegedly beaten up by a Georgian Dream representative amid reports of ballot stuffing.

In Rustavi, a city some 20 kilometers southeast of Tbilisi, RFE/RL correspondent Davit Mchedlidze was verbally abused and prevented from doing his job at a polling station by unidentified individuals who attempted to take his phone away.

A witness told RFE/RL that the unidentified persons were on the territory of the precinct, in violation of the law. Although the police were called, none arrived, the witness told RFE/RL.

Observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who monitored the election will hold a conference tomorrow to present their take on the fairness of the vote.

Russian Reaction

Georgian Dream was founded by Ivanishvili, Georgia's richest man, who made his fortune in Russia.

After casting his ballot, Ivanishvili urged Georgians to show up and vote in large numbers, while accusing the opposition of being in the service of an unnamed "foreign state" that would drag Georgia into a war against Russia.

"We have a very simple choice: either we elect a government that will serve you, the people of Georgia, Georgian society, take care of the country, or we elect an agent of a foreign state that will only follow orders from abroad," Ivanishvili said, adding that Georgia would then be faced with "catastrophe and ruins."

The Kremlin has made no secret that it prefers a victory by Georgian Dream.

Margarita Simonyan, the chief editor of the Kremlin-funded news agencies RT and Sputnik, cheered the election results.

"Georgians won! Well done," she wrote in a tweet, implying Western interference.

Opinion polls show that Georgians are broadly supportive of joining the European Union and NATO but are also keen to avoid conflict with Russia and are deeply conservative on issues such as LGBT rights.

Among the controversial bills that Georgian Dream has passed is a law requiring groups that receive 20 percent or more of their funding from abroad to register as "foreign agents."

Opponents dubbed it the "Russian law," describing it as authoritarian and inspired by similar laws used to curb dissent in Russia.

Passage of the legislation earlier this year drew massive protests and prompted the United States to impose sanctions on several Georgians and threaten to end aid to Tbilisi.

The European Union may consider temporary cancellation of its visa-free regime with Georgia if the elections are "not free and fair," the bloc's ambassador to Tbilisi said in September.

Other controversial legislation has clamped down on gay rights.

"This is a referendum between war and peace, between immoral propaganda and traditional values. This is a referendum between the country's dark past and a bright future," Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said after voting.

Opposition Groups

A new electoral rule put in place prior to the vote requires parties or coalitions to receive at least 5 percent to make it into parliament. That motivated Georgia's opposition parties to form coalitions that have a better chance of making it over that threshold.

The four main opposition groups directed their fire at the ruling party rather than each other, having had the common goal of ending 12 years of rule by Georgian Dream and reviving Georgia's stalled bid to join the European Union.

They had agreed that in the case of an opposition victory, they would allow President Salome Zurabishvili to form a technocratic government that would restore good relations with the West and repeal the most authoritarian laws that Georgian Dream passed in the run-up to the campaign.

Zurabishvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, has been at odds with Georgian Dream.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/georgia-crucial-elections- choice-russia-or-europe/33174003.html

Copyright (c) 2024. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.