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Dual Votes Test Moldovans' European Future, Moscow's Reach

By Andy Heil and RFE/RL's Moldovan Service October 19, 2024

Moldovans cast ballots on October 20 in a tense dual vote to reelect or reject a pro-European president and possibly enshrine their EU ambitions in the constitution, with encouragement from the West and despite alleged interference from Moscow.

Moldovan and foreign warnings of alleged Russian meddling ranging from disinformation to vote-buying and co-opting sympathetic Moldovans and channeling money to encourage unrest after the election have underscored the value that Chisinau and the international community place on the importance of free and fair - and peaceful -- voting.

Front-running incumbent Maia Sandu faces 10 presidential challengers led by pro-Russian Socialist Alexandr Stoianoglo and populist former Mayor Renato Usatii in the poor former Soviet republic's third direct presidential election, as it navigates polarization at home and war to its east in Ukraine.

The referendum, which was proposed by Sandu, asks the 3.3 million Moldovan voters at home and abroad whether they "support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union."

The votes could provide valuable lessons for Sandu's allies and the opposition ahead of parliamentary elections next summer that will be a referendum on four years of rule by the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) that she founded eight years ago.

Moldova's presidency holds limited direct power but Sandu has parlayed her pro-Western message and leverage with the liberal PAS into limited reforms and formal EU candidacy for her fractured former Soviet republic.

One of her most ambitious moves has been eliminating landlocked Moldova's reliance on Russian natural gas since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but that has contributed to inflation and other economic hardship for many of Moldova's 2.4 million residents.

Recent polling showed Sandu at 30-35 percent support, well ahead of former Prosecutor-General Stoianoglo, whom she dismissed last year, at nine percent and ex-Mayor Usatii, who says he wants greater balance between east and west in foreign policy, at six percent.

If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be staged between the two leading vote-getters for November 3.

Aside from stark warnings by local officials including Moldova's foreign minister, U.S. and other Western officials have pointed fingers at Russia, in July citing "very clear action by the Russians to undermine this upcoming election and referendum."

Russia, which maintains hundreds of troops at a former Soviet base in Moldova's heavily Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transdniester, denies intruding on the Moldovan vote.

Since his party was banned by the government and then the Moldovan Constitutional Court last year for allegedly fomenting a coup, convicted oligarch Ilan Shor has been accused of a multimillion-dollar scheme to pay anti-EU voters and influencers and been linked to a other schemes from his Russian exile to promote Russia among Moldovans and foment dissatisfaction with their government.

Days before the voting, authorities said they arrested four people and warned that dozens more had been trained in Russia and the Balkans to "destabilize" the country after the vote.

Recent weeks have seen a flurry of conspicuous diplomatic support for the pro-EU cause in Moldova, highlighted by visiting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement of nearly $2 billion of EU investment to help "double the size of your economy in a decade."

"It is your sovereign choice what to do with your country, and no one can interfere," von der Leyen said in Chisinau on October 10. "Of course, speaking as president of the European Commission, I believe that Moldova's place is in our European Union."

Denis Cenusa, an analyst with the Expert-Grup at the University of Giessen, suggested at a Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) event last week that the referendum was an effort to make up for years spent "oscillating between two vectors," one toward EU membership and the other envisaging a more balanced international engagement that would almost certainly lead to closer relations with Moscow.

The amendments at issue in the constitutional referendum would include confirmation in the Preamble of Moldovans' "European identity," the "irreversibility of the European courts" of the country, and integration as a national "strategic objective."

It would also add a section allowing for accession on the basis of a majority vote in Moldova's 101-member parliament.

At least 1.1 million voters must participate in the referendum to make it valid.

A "no" vote in the referendum would not preclude future membership, but it would deal a serious blow to Sandu and her pro-EU allies and almost certainly forestall accession efforts for years to come.

Official results are expected to be announced early on October 21.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/dual-votes-test- moldovans-european-future-moscow-s-reach/33164975.html

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Dual Votes Test Moldovans' European Future, Moscow's Reach