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Central Asia's High-Stakes Gamble With The Taliban

By Farangis Najibullah and Khursand Khurramov September 22, 2024

The estimated $10 billion TAPI project was first designed in the 1990s but was repeatedly delayed due to war and instability in Afghanistan.

Turkmenistan hopes the proposed 1,800-kilometer pipeline will become a key source of revenue for cash-strapped Ashgabat.

And Afghanistan would earn about $500 million in transit fees annually, a major boost to its budget.

The future of TAPI, however, remains in doubt due to Western sanctions on the Taliban administration and the absence of official recognition of the government in Kabul that could hamper funding and investment in the project.

No country in the world has formally recognized the Taliban government.

High-Profile Visit

In August, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Oripov went to Kabul, marking the highest-level visit by a foreign government official since the Taliban took power in Kabul three years ago.

During the visit, Uzbek and Taliban officials reportedly signed investment and trade deals worth about $2.5 billion in the energy, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors.

Afghanistan and Kazakhstan announced in August 2023 that they were planning to increase bilateral trade to $3 billion.

Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest economy, was the first country to delist the Taliban as a terror organization in December 2023.

But while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan were quick to make visits to Kabul after the Taliban returned to power, Tajikistan was the only Central Asian country to take a harsh stance on the new rulers in Afghanistan.

'Accepting Reality'

Dushanbe's position has been largely linked to its ethnic, linguistic, and historic connection to the mainly ethnic Tajik opponents to the Taliban, which is predominantly ethnic Pashto.

But Tajikistan now appears to be softening it policies toward the Taliban in a move that Tajik experts describe as "accepting reality."

Tajikistan exports electricity to Kabul and has established several markets in border towns where local merchants from the two sides sell goods. The governments also reportedly discussed cooperation in the fight against militants who target Tajikistan from inside Afghan territory.

Both Dushanbe and Kabul have a shared interest in defeating the Islamic State-Khurasan terrorist group, which has recruited many militants from Tajikistan.

Afghan media reported that the head of Tajikistan's state Committee for National Security, Saimuddin Yatimov, had a meeting with Taliban intelligence chief Abdul Haq Wasiq in late August. Tajik authorities have neither confirmed nor denied those reports.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Dushanbe-based expert told RFE/RL's Tajik Service that "given Tajikistan's vast shared border with Afghanistan, the threats of terrorist attacks, and economic incentives, Tajik authorities have no choice but to opt for geopolitical cooperation" with the Taliban.

Some experts claim that China and Kazakhstan have played a role in convincing Dushanbe to change its attitude toward the Taliban administration.

Addressing high-ranked officials from members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Almaty in June, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev called the Taliban "a long-term factor" and highlighted what he described as "the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation with modern Afghanistan."

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/afghanistan -taliban-kazakhstan-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan- tajikistan-turkmenistan/33126717.html

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Central Asia's High-Stakes Gamble With The Taliban