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Latest National Security Threat Assessment: what is the security status quo?

Republic of Lithuania - Ministry of National Defence

2024-03-07
Security and defense policy

On March 7 the Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the Ministry of National Defence and the State Security Department presented trends of Lithuania's security situation in the 9th Security Threat Assessment.

The National Security Threat Assessment highlights the massive resources Russia is allocating for the war in Ukraine and its absence of interest in de-escalation. It is notable that Russia is failing to meet its operational objectives; however, it is mounting for a lasting confrontation with NATO, including in the Baltic Sea region.

"Lithuania's security has not improved over 2023, the threats we are facing have not diminished. Russia's current priority is the war against Ukraine but if the conflict halts or freezes for some reason Moscow may switch its focus to military capability development westwards, and that's were Lithuania is. Therefore we do not predict improvement in Lithuania's security situation in the near future," said Director of the Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the Ministry of National Defence Col Elegijus Paulavičius.

It is said in the National Security Threat Assessment that Russia has enough of financial, human, material and technical resources to pursue combat action goals with similar intensity at least in the short-term. Military industry is turning into Russia's economical driving force at the expense of other economy sectors. Russia is also slowly building up the military capabilities required for a long-term confrontation with NATO and the West. It has also commenced a large-scale Armed Forces reform which, however, will take from several years to a decade to be finished.

"Beyond doubt, Russia's war in Ukraine and its refusal to withdraw from the imperialist ambition remains the key factor shaping Lithuania's national security. However, there appeared more global threats, tensions and dangers that have a negative effect on the security situation in the recent years. Security services of Russia and Belarus engage in intense activities against Lithuania seeking to sow division, mislead, spy, cause chaos and make the work of institutions difficult. We are observing the intensifying activity of the intelligence service of China that has global and long-term goals. We are living in the times of historical challenges and the intelligence more often has to tell bad news than good. Nevertheless, our most important mission remains to warning about threats, sound a timely alarm and offer an adequate situation assessment," says Head of the State Security Department Darius Jauniškis.

The Lithuanian intelligence notes that the Kremlin is creating an image of a universal support to its regime and policy. The mutiny of Wagner, however, has demonstrated that the regime fails to respond quickly to changes in the situation and the society is indifferent to the struggle for power.

The approaching Russian elections are needed to consolidate the legitimacy of the rule of Vladimir Putin and public approval to his policy. After the V. Putin reelection, unpopular decisions are highly likely as the regime will need to mobilize Russia and its society for war.

According to the Lithuanian intelligence, the aggression against Ukraine shapes Russia's foreign policy to an increasing degree. The Kremlin turns to blackmail and threats to impede the assistance to Ukraine. International isolation pushes Russia towards partnership with the Global South not only to ensure alternative trade and logistic routes but also to assemble and anti-West coalition.

Russia also spends a lot of effort to bypass the international sanctions. It systemically increases a network of companies that cooperate on that matter. Its intermediary companies are looking for ways to acquire the necessary equipment and launch contacts with its manufacturers and traders. Some of the companies working in Lithuania and being fully aware it helps to bypass the sanctions also organize equipment, technology and other exports to Russia.

It is worth to note that the war in Ukraine has to an extent pulled the plug out of pro-Russian political and social movements in Lithuania. A few pro-Russian public figures in Lithuania attempt to form pro-Russia political powers but their initiatives have been failing.

The Lithuanian intelligence also warns that Belarus pursues an intensive intelligence activity against Lithuania. The Belarusian intelligence carries it out in border-crossing interview with people from Lithuania and exploits the increasing Belarusian diaspora in Lithuania.

The grown military potential of Belarus originates from the intensified Russian arms support to Minks. The Kremlin allow Lukashenko to demonstrate the mock sovereignty and equality in decision-making but Russia will aim to retain and increase control over Minsk with the tactical nuclear weapon capability it is creating in Belarus and legal conditions for a long-term military presence with it.

The Threat Assessment also addressed China, information attacks and the Islamic State. Intensifying China's intelligence against Lithuania conducted from the territory of China is emphasized. It uses social media and develops cyber espionage capabilities targeting Lithuania to find targets in Lithuania, collect information and start contacts.

Information attacks against Lithuania and the neighboring countries are also intensifying. They are used to cause fear and panic, disrupt public institution work, sow distrust in state decisions. The information policy of Russia is likely to keep growing.