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Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna's annual foreign policy speech

Republic of Estonia - Ministry of Foreign Affairs

13.02.2024

Honoured members of the Riigikogu, the diplomatic corps, dear people,
The war in Ukraine goes on, Russia's aggression continues. Ukrainians have been determined in their resistance to the aggressor; we have been determined in our support to Ukrainians but the aggression has not ended. Russian forces remain on Ukrainian territory, sowing dread and killing people. Putin has not given up on his goals and hopes to reach his aims by wearing out fUkrainians and their supporters. This must not happen, too much is at stake. To prevent this, our own goal must be certain and clear, we must know what we mean by victory because we can afford nothing else. A victory that ensures durable independence for us, Europe and the free world is based on the following.

The Ukrainian state must endure in its territorial integrity. Force should not be an instrument for changing national borders and trampling on sovereignty, not now nor in the future, not in Ukraine nor anywhere else.

Aggression must not succeed; it must not become a new acceptable reality. Otherwise, the world will become the domain of force, arrogance, callousness, authoritarianism. Aggression as a concept must be discarded from the thinking of states and it is possible only if aggressors are defeated and the criminality of their goals and actions is made clear to them. For this, we must ensure that the aggressor is left weaker after the conflict than it was when it launched the aggression, and the victims must be compensated for the damage caused by the aggression. Perpetrators of crimes must be punished; they must be brought to justice. No position in the world should give anyone immunity from this.

The European Union and NATO are and must remain the foundations of European security. Both organisations have been established to preserve and uphold the interests of the free world - democracy, rule of law, the rights of people and the way of life based on freedom. Ukraine must become a member of NATO and the European Union; it is a guarantee that makes the aggressor doubt the effectiveness of its militant and destructive objectives. It gives confidence to Ukrainians to move forward on their chosen path, it gives confidence to us that the aggressive and imperialist ideas sprouting somewhere do not become objectives and are kept under control. It does away with grey zones.

This is what victory would be like for Europe, the free world and us. Any other, lesser result is a defeat. We cannot afford this and we do not intend to afford this. We will attain victory if we are determined and confident and believe in our aims, if we can stick together, as Estonia, as the European Union, as the democratic world. We in Estonia are sharp and alert, and we are leading by example. We can break taboos and make the unthinkable thinkable if necessary. However, to achieve all this, more than just mere words is needed; we must act boldly and thereby motivate others and inspire them to join us. Estonia's foreign policy works in line with the long-term strategy 'Estonia 2035' that aims to ensure a safe and high-quality society and a secure state.

Dear partners,
Russia is waging a war of attrition. Putin has adapted his economy to a time of war and he wants to exhaust Ukrainians and us at this temperature and to this extent for years. The criminals of Kremlin think that time is on their side. This is actually not the case - time is on our side. We only need to maintain our resolve and continue with what we have been doing up until now. It is Russia that will be worn out, making its war machine collapse and forcing it to give up on its aims of subjugation, and engage in introspection. There is a clear plan that leads us there, with eight pillars.

First, Ukraine must be able to resist the aggressor, both by fighting on the battlefield and by keeping its state, society and economy running. They can do this with us, and help is of existential importance. However, help must be provided constantly and in larger volumes. The European Council decided to allocate €50 billion to Ukraine so it is able to keep its society going, reinforce its state institutions and provide services during war. At a time when other helpers, the United States, for example, are unable to assist or bogged down in their decision-making processes, Europe has an even greater responsibility to show what we must and can do.

Military resistance requires trained personnel and capable weapons systems. More importantly - enough ammunition. To ensure security of supply, Estonia proposed the initiative to provide 1 million shells to Ukraine. Now we need to keep these promises. Various capitals are increasingly realising that more must be given to Ukraine and we must act as a single effective force. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz referred to this early this year, when he called on European Union member states to increase their aid.

War cannot be fought with one-off campaigns. Ukrainians must have the certainty that aid is sustainable, constant and long-term. Many taboos about weapons aid that haunted us in the initial phase of the full-scale war have been broken by now but we must continue breaking them. We must agree that donors provide Ukraine with 0.25% of their GDP for warfare and defence every year. It is a relatively small share for a single contributor but in total, this would mean €120 billion. This would be enough to defeat Russia; it would offer certainty and maintain motivation. The government of Estonia has already taken this decision.

Second, Russia must be fought back with sanctions. The more we help Ukraine and conversely, the more resolutely we tighten the screws on Russia's food chains, the more we help ourselves. Let us continue in such a way that it is Russia, not Ukraine that is feeling the squeeze of restraints!

The European Union has adopted 12 packages of sanctions, including three last year. The United States and the United Kingdom have imposed their strong sanctions regimes. Estonia and likeminded countries have kept the timeframe of sanctions in focus in the European Union; they have consistently made proposals for new restrictive measures and expressed concern over the circumvention of sanctions. Slowly but surely, the effect of sanctions has begun to bite Russia's economy. Russia's industrial reach has been reduced; its access to financial instruments, goods and technology has been restricted. The European Union and the G7 have jointly targeted Russia's main sources of income and blocked access to goods used in the war industry. The 13th package of sanctions is in preparation. Nearly 60% of the European Union's pre-war trade with Russia is now under sanctions. In other words, we are on our way towards a trade embargo. This is significant and has an effect.

We must keep in mind that Russia is also adapting. Oil and gas revenues continue to flow into Russia. We must tighten our clamps and find ways to prevent the circumvention of sanctions. Russia's export revenue must be reduced further, the price cap on oil must be lowered even more, and we must have more efficient control. We are aware that the European Union and the G7 have imposed sanctions but we assume that the countries who have not joined in understand the reasons and aims of the sanctions, and refrain from supporting Russia's war machine, even indirectly, and improving their economic position at the expense of Ukrainians defending themselves.

Third, we must remain determined in isolating Russia. Last year, Russia was denied entry to the UN Human Rights Council. The WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases was relocated from Moscow to Copenhagen. Estonia prevailed over Russia in the elections of UNICEF's Executive Board and Russia was not included in the Council of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Executive Board of UNESCO and the Council of the International Maritime Organization. The message is clear. We must continue with determination on this path. For example, there is absolutely no justification for the participation of the aggressor in Interpol. We must also prevent Russia and Belarus from finding ways to infiltrate these organisations again before the end of the aggression.

At the same time, we know all too well that in international organisations and many countries of the world, support for Ukraine and resistance to Russia are sadly not self-evident or automatic. Naturally, decisions like the one taken by the International Olympic Committee allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete at the Paris Olympics are short-sighted. It is our task to explain to those who are in doubt or wish to stand back what is at stake in Russia's war against Ukraine. Nothing more and nothing less than the rules-based international order. An international order with principles and procedures that have given an equal say to the great and the small; an order that has brought independence to many, reduced tensions and organised relations, resisted violence. An international order without which the world would be considerably more uncertain and chaotic. It is vital that we preserve it.

Fourth, war criminals and perpetrators of crimes against humanity must be punished. Russia's leadership must bear responsibility for the aggression, the gravest crime in international law, as it goes against everything the world organised by rules stands for. No one wants to live in a world where Putins roam, kidnapping and orphaning children, attempting to cancel their neighbours and mining nuclear power plants. By now, the deportation of 20 000 Ukrainian children to Russia has been documented, and in reality the number is sure to exceed a couple of hundred thousand. If these kinds of criminals go unpunished, it will only encourage future aggressors. We cannot witness this in silence. As part of the Ukrainian peace formula, Estonia is participating in an international coalition that is involved in bringing the children deported to Russia back to Ukraine. In addition, we cooperated with the United States, Belgium and Ukraine, with the participation of Mrs Olena Zelenska, to organise an event during the last high-level week of the UN General Assembly, highlighting the issue of the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. It is unacceptable that in the 21st century, an aggressor is deporting children in front our eyes, robbing them of a childhood. Evil must be kept under control, on the ground, with a foot firmly on its neck. Otherwise, no one, no matter how near or far, is protected and safe.

The most appropriate way to process the crime of aggression is to create an international tribunal on the recommendation of the UN General Assembly, and it would be able to prosecute Russia's leadership. The crime of aggression is a crime committed by national leaders because they are the ones who plan, prepare and finally order an attack on another country. If Putin and Russia's leadership go unpunished, we have no guarantee that aggression as an instrument is not used again and soon in a horrible way. The International Criminal Court should be commended for its work and actions, including for issuing an arrest warrant for Putin. It is a concrete step, serving as an example to follow and align with. It also shows Putin that there is no immunity. Estonia continues to support the tribunal.

Fifth, in line with international law, Russia is obligated to compensate the damage it has caused in Ukraine. As long as Russia has not done so, we must find a way to use the frozen or blocked assets of Russia and Russian citizens. Not only in Estonia but also by other European Union member states and allies. Here, too, Estonia leads the way, initiates and inspires. The government has composed a bill that makes it possible to use frozen and blocked assets. Dear members of the Riigikogu, I implore you - the parliament has an important role in this becoming law. Let the words of President Zelensky in this very hall serve as an inspiration to you: all assets that Russia or individuals associated with Russia have tried to hide in jurisdictions across the globe must be frozen and used for defending against Russia's aggression and for helping to rebuild after this war.
The European Union has agreed on transferring the profits made from the blocked assets of the Central Bank of Russia to a separate account. The next step of allowing the assets that accumulate there to be used for reconstruction in Ukraine is now being considered. We must continue to be trailblazers and lead the way on this issue.

Sixth, Ukraine must be rebuilt. Despite Russia constantly launching missiles and drones to destroy Ukraine, life away from the front goes on. People go to work; children go to the kindergarten and to school. Even in regions that have known the tragedies of war. By directing our strength and resources to rebuilding Ukraine, we are helping the people of Ukraine to cope better with the harsh consequences of this war. We have helped to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure, assisted with humanitarian demining operations, helped with winterisation and contributed to managing the aftermath of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. Estonia's reconstruction efforts are focused on the Zhytomyr Oblast, particularly on education, rehabilitation, construction and digital affairs. We have built a wooden module kindergarten with a bomb shelter in Ovruch and restored the bridge connecting the two parts of the city of Malyn, essential for the operations of daily life. We continue cooperating actively with international donors and engaging with Estonia's development and business communities. To bring hope to children, Estonia is building four family homes in Ukraine in addition to the kindergarten. Between 2022 and 2027, we will allocate €70 million to development cooperation and reconstruction and €30 million to humanitarian aid in Ukraine. Based on our experience so far, Estonia has a lot to share with its international partners - Ukraine's reconstruction is becoming a growing multilateral cooperation.

We have also launched and are leading international support for Ukraine in cyber defence. The coordination of cyber assistance bringing together ten countries, as well as the European Union and NATO, is called the Tallinn Mechanism. When reconstructing Ukraine, we have had to combine the technical standards of Ukraine on the one hand and the standards of the European Union on the other. This is where the second and crucial benefit for Ukraine comes from - gaining the necessary transitional experience on their way to the European Union.

Seventh, Ukraine will become an unequivocal part of the democratic world, a member of the European Union and NATO. Decisive steps have already been taken in this direction. The European Union invited Ukraine and Moldova to accession negotiations. This was not an advance or a hastily taken decision; instead, it was a fair reward for decisive reforms that Ukraine and Moldova have managed to implement despite difficult circumstances. A lengthy and laborious negotiation process will follow, and not only in terms of talks because reforms must also continue. Both those who are joining the EU and the institutions of the European Union must complete their part of the equation. On this journey, Estonia is a constructive partner and offers every support. By now, we have completed the training of nearly 100 Ukrainian civil servants for preparing and conducting negotiations with the European Union.

NATO and the European Union form a whole - one does not work without the other. For years now, Ukraine has been a member of the transatlantic community, operating in the same value space as all Allies. This unity must be heard at the upcoming NATO summit in Washington. It is Estonia's position that Ukraine must receive a clear message about becoming a member. We cannot settle for the smallest common denominator. Ukrainians must be sure; they must feel that they will become a member of NATO. Work towards this goal is already ongoing. However, the most important thing is for Putin to become convinced about Ukraine's NATO accession, convinced that there is no more Ukraine as a grey zone. Without this, there will be no strategic solution to the issue of Ukraine.

However, we must also be glad that Finland has already become a member of the Alliance and Sweden's accession is imminent because the bickering and frictions that delayed the process have ended. The Baltic Sea region is now more united and stronger in security and defence than ever.

Eighth, we must support the peace plan of President Zelensky, a process in which Estonia has been an active participant. Estonia and Guatemala have become the leaders of the fifth working group of the implementation of the peace plan, with a focus on restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine in light of the principles of the UN Charter. This fits well with Estonia's new global initiative on freedom - more on that later.
To summarise what has been said before. We will remain resolute. We must not despair. We will continue supporting Ukraine, reigning in Russia, urging on our Allies and partners, and carrying out outreach activities worldwide. Time is working in our favour.

Honoured members of the Riigikogu,
There is unease in the world, not only in Ukraine but also in many other parts of the world. We cannot ignore this. A conflict in the Middle East has flared up again, in the most appalling way. Houthi pirates are operating in the Red Sea. New major powers are emerging, wishing to change existing norms and shape the world in their image. Migratory pressure is increasing. We can see the aggressive fallout of climate change - devastating storms, more powerful floods, suffocating desertification - in many parts of the world. The global population is growing, while the economy is not. In the background, there is artificial intelligence with its potential and risks. Nearly half of the world's population will go to the polls this year - including large BRICS states India, Iran, South Africa and Russia. There are also the elections of the European Parliament, and in the second half of the year, the world's eyes will be on the United States where the increasing standoff between Democrats and Republicans will have a resolution. All this could bring groundbreaking changes.

To endure, we must preserve our own values and value space, and our humanity. We must not lose our grip and we must strengthen the fabric that binds us together. Acting together, breathing as one, thinking in the same rhythm keeps us strong and secure. We must safeguard the European Union and NATO, our Allies and friends, with whom we have worked for the same cause for 20 years now.

The war in Europe has been a wakeup call for the European Union. It has boosted unity and highlighted our fundamental values. At the same time, it has shown us that we cannot carry on the way we have so far. In parallel to supporting Ukraine, we must address our own defence, reinforce our relations with other countries, be open to the opinions and ideas of other states, reduce dependence and increase resilience.

The accession of new members and preparations for accession must ensure that the Union remains strong, open and efficient. A union that is defended and is able to defend. Intense internal debates about the most sensible way to do this are already underway. The spotlight is on changes that concern various policies, institutions and the budget. It is important that all member states continue to have the same opportunity to have a say in policy-making. The infamous multi-speed Europe, in any shape or form, should be confined to the archive of curious ideas. True, if a member state wishes to stay out of some cooperation format, they must retain that option. Just as the option of joining any cooperation format on equal grounds must remain available.

The principle of unanimity in the European Union's decision-making process is a great challenge. The debate about whether lifting it would improve the EU goes back several decades. The principal position of Estonia has not changed - unanimity must remain in place for foreign and security policy issues. It ensures that the interests of every individual member state are protected. No existential decision is taken without the consent of everyone. A decision based on consensus may take longer but once it is reached, it is all the more solid and effective. Everyone supports this.
Obviously, unanimity should not be abused; the vital interests of the European Union should not be taken hostage, so to say, by a member state. However, unanimity is not at the centre of this issue; rather it is about taking the vote away from the one working against fundamental values.

Dear audience,
The world was shocked by the massive terror attack of Hamas on 7 October against Israel and the principles of the free world. Israel has the right to defend itself within international law. We must move towards a solution that would end the deteriorating humanitarian crisis and conclude with two states that can exist side by side.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza demonstrate that our way of life and principles that underpin democratic society and our own independence need special care, attention and protection. If we wish to live as we want and as we consider right, we must first be free, and not only as a country but also on the individual, community, and societal level. The freer we are and the better we understand freedom, the greater the cohesion within ourselves and in any part of the world.

Freedom in its various manifestations ensures democracy, which has proven to be the best model for state organisation that offers long-term solutions. I am deeply convinced that the story of Estonia is an excellent example of how positive change is possible. We have built a digital and secure - including cybersecure - society where the open state is there for its citizens. Or, more precisely, where citizens feel that they are the state. As it should be. However, we must remember that success is won with extended and determined progress. This is why it is a labour of love for us to help wherever we can to make sure freedom is preserved and reinforced, that it never wanes or disintegrates. Not just among ourselves but across the globe. This is why we have introduced the Fit for Freedom initiative. The free world must have the courage to not only live but also act according to its rules.

What does this entail?

Three major lines of action. First, the protection of fundamental and human rights must be a part of global security policy. More vigorously and more consciously than hitherto. In the simplest terms, this means protecting people from all forms of violence - physical and psychological persecution. Everyone has the right to be who they are. Ethnic, gender and religious identity must not be a source of discrimination. I am happy that starting from this year, gender neutral marriage is legal in Estonia. It is a great step towards becoming freer, and certainly happier. Just as last year, the rainbow flag will be flown on the main building of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 17 May.

With this knowledge and experience in our portfolio, we are running for membership in the UN Human Rights Council for the 2026-2028 period. As a co-chair of the Media Freedom Coalition, we are standing up for free speech and journalists. Every year, Estonia can issue up to 35 residence permits to opposition figures and journalists who are persecuted in other parts of the world. For years now, we have considered the protection of internet freedom equally important. We are running for the chair of the Freedom Online Coalition again next year. This time, we plan to focus on identifying cases of internet restrictions and shutdowns and fighting these kinds of activities. We have offered our help to the Belarusian opposition.
Second, we must reinforce the rules-based international order. It is centred on the reform of the UN, mainly its Security Council, which has been discussed for decades. Throughout these years, countries have become deeply entrenched with their interests. To escape these trenches, we must let go of group mentality and move forward, if only by tiny steps. For example, in the renewed Security Council, any member who has initiated a conflict or committed a crime should hold no veto power. In fact, Paragraph 3 of Article 27 of the UN Charter already stipulates that a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting under Chapter V! The composition of the Council must also change. It should be a better reflection of today's world, its structure and the composition of countries. In line with the UN Charter, the various regions and continents of the world must be represented, and - why not - small states could receive a quota. The work of the Security Council must also become more transparent and open, inclusive and cohesive.

Third, it means shaping inclusive decision-making processes, connecting the civil society to various levels of state policy. In the past two years, we were members of the Steering Committee for the international Open Government Partnership and organised a very successful summit in early September last year. It was an international event with probably the largest number of participants from various countries and organisations ever held in Estonia. The Tallinn Pledge was adopted at the summit, calling for a more forceful and determined contribution to increasing and protecting the civil society's voice and freedom of expression. Inclusive decision-making also involves active advocacy for the say of small states, or digital inclusion. When it comes to the latter, Estonia's experience is not bad at all.

So let us become and remain worthy of freedom, our most treasured possession.

Members of the Riigikogu,
The greatest lesson we have learnt from our history is how the security and prosperity of a small state and nation can actually come into being, how it becomes established and grows. And the importance of a free - inclusive, caring, forward-looking, sensible - society on this path. We have felt this price of freedom on our skin and in our bones all too painfully. Therefore, we cannot just stand by and watch as forests burn. We care about our planet and the environment. We do not wish for any people to be subjected to destruction, fear, hunger, poverty and suffering. This is why we are taking steps and showing an example. Swimming against the tide, if necessary.

The reach of the AI revolution is evolving faster than even the most optimistic evangelists could predict. This is why it is extremely important for an educated, critically thinking and analytical society to reign in artificial intelligence. We must not forget privacy as a cornerstone of our existence. We should also not assume that there is no one out there waiting for a chance to control everything and everyone. Changes are coming; the question is what kind of changes? As a small society, our superpower has been responding quickly to change, the skill of making it work in our favour. This is what we should do now.

Supporting Estonian companies and reinvigorating the economy is not a special task of one minister. It is a common effort by the whole government. This is why last year, we created a government committee for reinvigorating the economy. The committee coordinates the activities of all institutions that support Estonia's economy, aiming to speed up solutions for all the shortcomings that have been identified.

This part of the speech was not presented in the Riigikogu:

There are nearly 17 000 exporters in Estonia. The majority of them manage without any support from the state and this is how it should work in the private sector. The role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Estonian Business and Innovation Agency is to open the first doors and support the first international steps, so that entrepreneurs can then become successful on foreign markets. For example, our defence industry can boast many success stories. They range from unmanned vehicles to data analysis solutions that make decision-making in the theatre of war as precise as possible. These kinds of success stories, the solutions developed by our defence companies, have greatly contributed to the recent launch of NATO's Innovation Accelerator DIANA in Estonia. We are the vanguard of Europe's defence industry! The defence industry has the potential to invigorate Estonia's economy.

This year, our main focus is on sectors related to technology services, in addition to green technology and energy. We are also actively supporting companies in the timber, construction and food sector that are going through a difficult time. This year, we plan to organise more than 300 business diplomacy events in 19 countries and in Estonia to support the export activities of companies, and we have allocated an additional €1.2 million from the recovery instrument to this end. Last year, we opened business hubs in Singapore and Seoul. They have been received very warmly by both Estonian and local companies. We are currently establishing business hubs in London, Washington, Paris, Berlin and Riga.
As I mentioned above, we would like to be at the forefront of reconstruction in Ukraine. On the one hand, it is a chance for our companies to be a part of supporting Ukraine and forging their victory. On the other hand, it is an opportunity to apply their skills and products and create added value. Among other things, we have launched a constantly updated information portal for Ukraine, and I recommend entrepreneurs use this convenient tool.

The economy of the future is green. It does not rob our entrepreneurs of opportunities; instead, it creates new ones. Climate change is real. The fight for the living environment and for resources is already ruthless in many parts of the world. The prognosis for the future shows an increasing impact of climate change on migration, inequality and urbanisation.

The most recent climate conference of the UN, or COP, threw into sharp relief the main challenges of not having done more and faster to stop climate change. It does not make us throw in the towel; instead, it spurs us on to make an even greater effort. Estonia is an increasingly active participant in climate discussions, and supporting green business is one aspect of this. For the first time, we attended the COP with a national pavilion and its programme was centred on the added value created in Estonia. There was great interest in Estonia's solutions and based on this, we will obviously continue to work with specific partners.

To conclude.
There are Estonians all across the world. They have been carried there by their lust for adventure or curiosity, but also by tragic events in their homeland. Next year marks 80 years since thousands of Estonians fled in boats to the free world to escape occupation. Their story tells us a lot and we must not forget it. In 2025, another ESTO is held in Tallinn and Narva, and we should start getting ready now. Personally, I love every opportunity to talk to my compatriots abroad.

All Estonians, no matter where they live, are welcome to make their home in Estonia. In the last couple of years, the migration balance of Estonians has become positive. The number of Estonians returning to Estonia exceeds the number of Estonians who are leaving. In 2022, nearly 7000 people returned to Estonia. Estonia is providing those who return with advice and practical support. We are aware of the importance of a place in school for children, the career options of a spouse who is a foreigner and the availability of high-quality Estonian language lessons.
Estonians abroad are happy to take part in telling our story and developing business ties when they feel connected to Estonian identity, culture and mentality. Estonian people abroad are active and awesome. A fantastic example of the Estonian story being told abroad today is the Estonian business and cultural centre KESKUS being built on a major street in Toronto. Not to mention Anna Hints, who, after winning the European Film Award for best documentary, made the entire glamorous hall join her in singing a runic song.

Estonia is its people. Near and far. Thanks to them, we can make the world fit for freedom and work towards Ukraine's victory. We are an evolving Estonian community open to the world, yearning for both a distant land and for home, as writer Karl Ristikivi noted. We are a tree with two arms. In Tiergarten, in Bois de Vincennes and in Central Park, local Estonians are looking for that slightly marshier spot of land that reminds them of home. A refuge where they can hide from the noise and bustle of the world.