Exit Polls Show Aliyev's Ruling Party Strengthens Majority In Parliamentary Elections
By RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service February 09, 2020
BAKU -- An exit poll in Azerbaijan's February 9 parliamentary elections suggests President Ilham Aliyev's ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) has increased its share by four seats in the single-chamber legislature and only one opposition candidate has won a seat.
The exit poll conducted by the U.S.-based firm Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates suggests the ruling YAP won a total of 69 seats in the 125-seat parliament. The YAP had 65 seats in the outgoing parliament, the Milli Majlis.
The exit poll also suggests that Azerbaijan's nominally independent candidates, most of whom support the policies of the ruling YAP, won 41 seats in the elections.
According to the exit poll, the only opposition candidate expected to make it into the next parliament is Erkin Gadirli of the Republican Alternative Civic Movement (REAL).
Polls closed across Azerbaijan at 7 p.m. (local time; 4 p.m. Prague time) in a snap election that was called by Aliyev in December. The ballot was boycotted by some opposition parties in protest over limitations on access to media and the right to peaceably assemble.
Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission (CEC) said turnout was 44.84 percent of eligible voters at 5 p.m. local time when two hours of voting remained.
Irregularities reported in the early hours of voting included multiple voting, interrupted video feeds at polling stations, and hindrance or abuse of independent observers.
Some opposition parties are not participating in the elections over continued lack of access to fair coverage among government-dominated media. Critics have cast serious doubt on hopes of genuine reforms that might strengthen the country's long-beleaguered opposition.
Instead, they say, Aliyev and his allies are seeking a way to ensure a line of succession that began with Aliyev's father, a Soviet-era KGB leader and Politburo member who passed the presidency to his son shortly before his death nearly two decades ago.
The February 9 elections originally were scheduled for November 2020 until they were moved forward by nine months in December, when Aliyev signed a decree to dissolve the existing parliament.
Aliyev's YAP said the composition of the legislature needed to be changed in order to carry out Aliyev's "reform" program. His reform plan follows several high-profile changes in the government and his administration near the end of last year that included the appointment of 62-year-old economist Ali Asadov as prime minister.
Critics say the party's hope for a change in the composition of parliament suggests Aliyev's party may be trying to clear the way for Aliyev's wife, First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, to take over the presidency at a later date.
In fact, parliamentary powers are limited in Azerbaijan. Most political power in the Caucasus nation is concentrated in the hands of the presidency.
The post of prime minister in Azerbaijan has long been held by a close ally of Aliyev, who took over the presidency in 2003 after his father ruled the country the previous 10 years.
Aliyev -- who was reelected in 2008, 2013, and 2018 -- was able to consolidate his power through a 2009 referendum that abolished the country's two-term presidential limit and a 2016 referendum that lengthened presidential terms to seven years.
According to the CEC, some 5.3 million voters are eligible to cast ballots on February 9.
Initial official results are expected to be announced in the early morning hours of February 10.
Minor complaints were already trickling in within hours of the opening of polling stations.
Some independent observers said they saw instances of carousel voting -- when people visit multiple polling stations -- and people casting multiple ballots at once.
One candidate reported seeing an ambulance ferrying voters to multiple polling stations.
One election monitor working for a candidate said he was beaten and thrown out out of a polling station he was attempting to observe.
Other election monitors said they were being prevented from entering polling stations or were ordered to remain in certain locations. The Institute for Democratic Initiatives shared several videos of people interfering with observers seeking to record at polling stations.
Cameras were being blocked at some of the 1,000 or so voting locations with live video feeds.
One candidate, activist and blogger Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, told RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service that he was initially prevented from voting at a Baku polling station and was told he hadn't registered properly. But an election official later said access to the polling station was being limited ahead of President Aliyev's arrival there to vote.
Apparent power outages meanwhile cut the lights for more than half an hour at some polling stations in Suraxani and Hovsan, northeast of the capital.
Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have noted that the number of registered voters in more than half of the 125 constituencies deviated by more than what the Election Code allows.
"A difference of approximately 2 million persists between the number of registered voters as per CEC data and the number of citizens of voting age according to the State Statistics Committee," the OSCE Election Observation Mission (ODIHR) said in a January 29 preelection report from Baku.
Voters who had not yet registered were allowed to do so on election day if they provided proof of residency in Azerbaijan.
Election officials registered 1,637 candidates who had applied by the January 10 deadline.
A total of 19 political parties fielded 272 of the candidates. They included 123 candidates from the ruling YAP, followed by 25 from the opposition Musavat party, and 21 from the opposition Party of Hope (UMID).
A total of 81 lawmakers, about two-thirds of the outgoing parliament, were seeking reelection.
Istanbul-based Azerbaijani political commentator and contributor to RFE/RL Arzu Geybullayeva said the elections would be different from previous parliamentary votes because of the emergence of new "genuine candidates" who were running as independents or who had joined forces under a new political bloc called Movement.
Movement, which was formed in December after the early elections were announced, brings together human rights activists, rights lawyers, election observes, bloggers, feminists, youth activists, and politicians.
Since the registration of candidates was completed on January 17, more than 300 official candidates withdrew from the ballot -- leaving a total of about 1,300 candidates seeking one of parliament's 125 seats.
The 22-day official election campaign period began on January 17. Azerbaijan's Election Code requires campaigning to end a day before the vote.
Poor Democratic Record
Since Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union in August 1991, its elections have repeatedly been deemed as falling short of democratic standards by international observers from the OSCE and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).
OSCE observers say Azerbaijan conducts its elections "within a restrictive environment and under laws that curtail fundamental rights and freedoms."
Independent media also have been stifled economically or closed by force, as was the case with the Baku bureau of RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service in December 2014.
The Paris-based media rights group Reporters Without Borders says Aliyev has waged "a relentless war" against his media critics, with journalists and bloggers being "jailed on absurd grounds if they do not first yield to harassment, beatings, blackmail, or bribes."
The opposition Azerbaijani Popular Front (PFPA) and its allies in the National Council of Democratic Forces (NCDF) are boycotting the February 9 ballot to protest what they say are unfair limitations on access to media and freedom of assembly.
PFPA Deputy Chairman Seymur Hazi told RFE/RL that voters in Azerbaijan have, for years, been denied the opportunity to see the platforms of different candidates and parties debated on television.
"We cannot speak about transparency and results coming from competition in the elections," Hazi told RFE/RL.
The REAL movement decided not to boycott the election, despite the refusal of election officials to register REAL leader Natiq Jafarli as a candidate on grounds that he was charged in 2016 for alleged illegal business practices.
The refusal of the CEC to register Jafarli came despite the fact that prosecutors in Baku dropped the criminal charges against Jafarli in 2017 before a verdict was reached in his trial, and the European Court of Human Rights last November ruled that the charges against him were politically motivated.
"A boycott is unlikely to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the elections," Jafarli says. "The authorities don't want people to go to the polls so that they can comfortably falsify the results. Therefore, we need to massively attract people to the elections."
But OSCE observers say most media in Azerbaijan have avoided covering the candidates, parties, and political issues during the official campaign period to avoid being accused of violating a stifling "equal coverage" rule in the Election Code.
Aliyev has rejected such criticism from international observers. He insists his government has taken all necessary measures to ensure fair and transparent parliamentary elections that comply with Azerbaijan's laws and international standards.
Aliyev also has accused the Council of Europe of "targeting Azerbaijan for 20 years" with "double standards and injustice."
"They depict Azerbaijan as a backward country, ignore positive processes in Azerbaijan, try to blacken Azerbaijan's reputation, and publish baseless and falsified reports that allege Azerbaijan has political prisoners and hinders democratic processes," Aliyev said.
Copyright (c) 2020. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
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