Islam Underlines Indonesian Election But that Doesn't Make it a Threat
By Luke Hunt April 15, 2019
The former general Prabowo Subianto desperately wants to be the next president of Indonesia. His failed bid five years ago hasn't deterred him and he is campaigning with a ruthless gusto, backed-by firebrand Islamic clerics and nationalists.
Yet his strategy to oust the incumbent, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, is struggling, particularly in an electorate where mundane issues like transport and getting the kids off to school will hold far greater significance when ballots are cast on April 17.
Writing in the South China Morning Post, Michael Vatikiotis, author of "Blood and Silk: Power and Conflict in Modern Southeast Asia," stirred the political pot by suggesting this election had divided Indonesians between the urban middle classes and conservative Muslims desiring a caliphate.
"Over time I have noticed that competitive politics increasingly divides the country socially, though not so obviously along class lines, as in Europe. In Indonesia the electoral divide is, alarmingly, along religious lines – between Muslims and non-Muslims," he wrote.
Economic growth and development most important
Reports on the rising number of jihadists, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies – which says the number had quadrupled since 9/11 – are worrying and there are concerns in Indonesia about ISIS fighters returning from Syria and the Middle East.
Greg Barton, chair of Global Islamic Politics at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization Australia, said the number of jihadists in Indonesia had increased, particularly in the countryside where a harsher brand of Islam is often promoted.
But he added their numbers were measured in the thousands and that they were not a threat in the current election climate, which in a population of 264 million people is being dictated by economic growth and development.
The former general Prabowo Subianto desperately wants to be the next president of Indonesia. His failed bid five years ago hasn't deterred him and he is campaigning with a ruthless gusto, backed-by firebrand Islamic clerics and nationalists.
Yet his strategy to oust the incumbent, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, is struggling, particularly in an electorate where mundane issues like transport and getting the kids off to school will hold far greater significance when ballots are cast on April 17.
Writing in the South China Morning Post, Michael Vatikiotis, author of "Blood and Silk: Power and Conflict in Modern Southeast Asia," stirred the political pot by suggesting this election had divided Indonesians between the urban middle classes and conservative Muslims desiring a caliphate.
"Over time I have noticed that competitive politics increasingly divides the country socially, though not so obviously along class lines, as in Europe. In Indonesia the electoral divide is, alarmingly, along religious lines – between Muslims and non-Muslims," he wrote.
Economic growth and development most important
Reports on the rising number of jihadists, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies – which says the number had quadrupled since 9/11 – are worrying and there are concerns in Indonesia about ISIS fighters returning from Syria and the Middle East.
Greg Barton, chair of Global Islamic Politics at the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization Australia, said the number of jihadists in Indonesia had increased, particularly in the countryside where a harsher brand of Islam is often promoted.
But he added their numbers were measured in the thousands and that they were not a threat in the current election climate, which in a population of 264 million people is being dictated by economic growth and development.
"I think as long as the margin in terms of the presidential election between Jokowi and Prabowo is say eight-10 percent the result will be accepted. If it got down to sort of three percent or less, then I think we could see some contestation," he said.
Another concern was protest votes, particularly among the youth who don't see any major distinctions between the two main candidates.
This was a major factor in the turnout at recent elections in Thailand, and in Cambodia last year where a ban on the main opposition party guaranteed its return to a one-party state, triggering potential sanctions and a loss of trade preferences in the United States and Europe.
"If he doesn't get re-elected it will be because of millennial voters and bear in mind that 60 million potential voters out of a potential of 190 or more million voters are under the age of 30, so it's a fair chunk of the vote," he said.
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