Is the Philippines about to miss its chance at peace?
By Jason Gutierrez
MANILA, 4 June 2015 (IRIN) - With a bill aimed at ending a decades-long Muslim separatist insurgency in the southern Philippines floundering in congress, observers warn that failure to pass the legislation could reignite the conflict.
After almost 30 years of fighting, the government signed a peace agreement last year with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has about 12,000 soldiers. The accord requires the MILF to gradually decommission its army, and it would expand the autonomous Muslim area on the southern island of Mindanao, creating a new political entity called Bangsamoro.
The Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) was drawn up to provide a framework for governance of the region, which is essential for the peace deal. But the BBL has been stalled in congress since 44 police were killed in a 25 January clash with MILF members, which led some legislators who had initially supported the bill to become harsh critics.
Analysts warn that the peace agreement could fall apart if the stalemate continues much longer.
Leaders of the MILF still support the peace process, but the rank and file is losing patience, and they are looking abroad at the tactics of other Islamic insurgencies, according to Ramon Casiple who heads the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a Manila-based think tank.
"It is the younger factions that may be waiting in the wings who are in danger of going back to fighting and exposed to other foreign armed groups," said Casiple.
There is also rising discontent with the peace process on the government side, especially since the battle in January when police commandos strayed into a rebel-held territory while pursuing suspects in the 2002 nightclub bombings in Bali, Indonesia.
MANILA, 4 June 2015 (IRIN) - With a bill aimed at ending a decades-long Muslim separatist insurgency in the southern Philippines floundering in congress, observers warn that failure to pass the legislation could reignite the conflict.
After almost 30 years of fighting, the government signed a peace agreement last year with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has about 12,000 soldiers. The accord requires the MILF to gradually decommission its army, and it would expand the autonomous Muslim area on the southern island of Mindanao, creating a new political entity called Bangsamoro.
The Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) was drawn up to provide a framework for governance of the region, which is essential for the peace deal. But the BBL has been stalled in congress since 44 police were killed in a 25 January clash with MILF members, which led some legislators who had initially supported the bill to become harsh critics.
Analysts warn that the peace agreement could fall apart if the stalemate continues much longer.
Leaders of the MILF still support the peace process, but the rank and file is losing patience, and they are looking abroad at the tactics of other Islamic insurgencies, according to Ramon Casiple who heads the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a Manila-based think tank.
"It is the younger factions that may be waiting in the wings who are in danger of going back to fighting and exposed to other foreign armed groups," said Casiple.
There is also rising discontent with the peace process on the government side, especially since the battle in January when police commandos strayed into a rebel-held territory while pursuing suspects in the 2002 nightclub bombings in Bali, Indonesia.
Civilian victims of the conflict like Kimberly Pascua, 18, are a constant reminder of the consequences of returning to war.
Pascua lost her legs and six family members in a MILF attack five years ago, and she spoke to IRIN at the Davao Jubilee Foundation, which has been helping to rehabilitate her with prosthetic legs with assistance from the International Committee for the Red Cross.
"I hope this time, peace holds and there would be less fighting and less children to be caught in the middle," she said. "I lost my legs to the conflict, and I wish no more children suffer like me."
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Theme (s): Conflict,
Copyright © IRIN 2015
This material comes to you via IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or its Member States.
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