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Turkey Eyes U.S. Drones In PKK Fight

November 07, 2011

ISTANBUL -- Ankara is claiming a major diplomatic triumph after Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he recently received a commitment from U.S. President Barack Obama to allow it the use of U.S. "Predator" drones.

The drones are seen by Ankara as a decisive weapon in its battle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Kurdish rebel group.

"The atmosphere seems to be that Turkey did indeed receive a positive reply from the U.S. that some of those 'Predators' currently in Iraq will be transferred to Incirlik and potentially made available for the use of the Turkish military," former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ulgen, a visiting research fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Institute, says.

Turkish diplomatic sources suggest Washington had resisted for years Turkish requests, citing its need for the drones in its war against Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

Ulgen says Obama is rewarding Turkey for its support in the region, in particular its decision to participate in NATO's antimissile system, which Washington says is aimed at countering threats from rogue states including Iran.

"The big element in this equation was Turkey's acceptance for hosting the early warning radar, for the missile-defense initiative, and now Ankara's policy with regard to Damascus has been closely concerted with Washington," Ulgen says. "Now the two sides are on the same page -- and [in] part of that overall equation the U.S. gave [a] positive signal regarding...the 'Predators' to Turkey."

The drones are seen as potentially key in the Turkish armed forces' fight against the PKK. Until recently it had used Israeli-made "Heron" drones. But their use has been severely curtailed since Israeli technical support ended. Ankara severed all military ties in September following Israel's deadly assault last year on a Turkish aid ship, the "Mavi Marmara," seeking to break the embargo on Gaza. According to Turkish media reports, six Herons sent to Israel for repair have not been returned.

Tensions with Israel could still pose problems for Ankara's goal of securing new drones.

"This is not a secret. This topic is being influenced by the Turkish-Israeli relations" says Alexander Vershbow, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for international security.

It also remains unclear whether the U.S. Congress would need to ratify the drones' use by Turkey. The U.S. State Department did not reply to requests for comment on the reported drone deal, first reported in late September.

No Simple Task

Turkey's own defense industry is developing its own drones but has suffered several setbacks; those unmanned aircraft are not expected to enter service until late next year at the earliest.

There is added urgency for the Turkish armed forces with the PKK stepping up its fight, killing 24 soldiers last month in one of the largest and deadliest operations carried out by the group in decades. The attack was launched by the rebels from bases in neighboring northern Iraq.

"The biggest problem for Turkey in fighting against terrorism is the infiltration of PKK terrorists from northern Iraq," Metehan Demir a defense journalist for the Turkish newspaper "Hurriyet," says. "Turkey has been trying to take measures to stop the infiltration but always failed. Predators are one of the key instruments to survey the area from the air -- also some of them armed."

According to a Turkish diplomatic source, U.S. drones operating in Iraq are already providing "real-time, actionable" intelligence on members of PKK based in Iraqi territory. But that supply of information is likely to end with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq due at the end of the year. The Turkish armed forces are increasingly turning to technology in it battle against the Kurdish insurgency. Drones are part of Ankara's wider strategy, according to defense journalist Demir.

"Turkey for a long period tried to use soldiers -- thousands upon thousands of soldiers on the rocky mountains on the southeastern part of Turkey," Demir says. "Now we understand it is not that easy to hold the border. Because if you know the area, it is very rocky and mountainous; also it's a huge border. Therefore you should closely observe and professionally track the terrorists. And this will be possible with the help of technology."

Time Frames And Determination

The Turkish prime minister has indicated that Ankara expects U.S. drones to be deployed this spring at the latest. That would coincide with the deployment of more than 5,000 newly trained elite counterterror police officers and professional soldiers. Until now, much of the fight against the PKK was done by conscripts.

Cengiz Aktar, a political scientist of Istanbul's Bahcesehir University, says the success of the Sri Lankan government in its wiping out of a similar decades-long insurgency by Tamil tiger group is influencing thinking in Ankara.

"In Ankara among the so-called specialists, antiterror action specialists mainly, for these people the Sri Lankan final solution of May 2009 is very attractive and they think they can do it," Aktar says. "The problem is that the conflict did not start in the so-called Kandil Mountains; did not start with PKK. It's a 100-year-old problem, and it could be solved only at the negotiation table."

The government has committed itself to introducing a new constitution that it claims will address many of the demands of its Kurdish minority. But at the same time, security forces have detained more than 1,000 members of the country's main legal pro-Kurdish party under antiterror laws since June's general election.

Defense journalist Metehan says it's unclear which direction Erdogan is heading in resolving the PKK conflict, but he believes he is determined to do so.

"Some people who voted for Erdogan started to say the only thing that Erdogan cannot solve so far is terrorism, [and] Erdogan is very well aware of such critics," Metehan says. "In behind-the-scenes meetings, he says this issue will be solved as soon as possible during this government's term. Therefore, he can take surprise steps in the coming months. Maybe he will be more nationalist, or he will be more diplomatic. We really don't know, but there is a plan in his mind and we will see this plan in the coming months."

Drones are widely seen as the United States' most potent weapon in its counterinsurgency campaigns, which is why the Turkish army is attaching such importance to their acquisition. Their deployment, observers say, can only add to those voices who argue that the nearly decade insurgency can still be defeated military.

Source: http://www.rferl.org/content/turkey_eyes_us_drones_pkk_fight/24383897.html

Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.