• Military Menu                       

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Industry
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• WMD
• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Egypt-Israel: A Cold Peace Gets Colder

September 20, 2011

Mohamed Elshinnawi | Washington

According to a new poll, Egyptian-Israeli relations have plunged to their lowest point in three decades. The slump follows the Israeli Sinai border incursion in mid-August that left six Egyptian guards dead and the subsequent Egyptian mob attack on the Israeli Embassy in Cairo.

Also, the poll has shown that Egyptian public support for the Camp David Peace Accords is at a record low, with some Egyptians saying that several of the treaty’s articles should be renegotiated. Others are demanding an expulsion of the Israeli ambassador from Cairo.

Meanwhile, Israel has launched a war of words against Egypt’s transitional government over its apparent inability to protect the Israeli diplomatic compound. Can the two countries resolve their differences and return to a peaceful relationship?

Origins of the status quo

Amr Hamzawy is a political science professor at Cairo University. He says, “Egyptian-Israeli relations can best be described as facing a crisis since the January 25 revolution for so many reasons.” He points to several reasons for growing anti-Israeli sentiment among Egyptians: “Israeli actions in the occupied Palestinian territories and southern Lebanon for years, former president Mubarak’s practices serving Israeli interests and the latest border clashes that left Egyptian soldiers dead.”

Some observers argue that the way Israel handled Egyptian public anger over the killing of the Egyptian soldiers only added fuel to the fire. Ori Nir is the spokesperson for Americans for Peace Now, a pro-Israel, pro-peace advocacy group in the United States. “Egyptians were angry already because of the Israeli Gaza blockade and the lack of progress in the peace talks. Then came the border incident to further deteriorate even the security cooperation between Israel and Egypt,” he said.

Nir faulted Israel for what he said was an inappropriate Israeli reaction to the incident. “There was a lack of an immediate, resolute Israeli reaction in the form of a quick apology and the formation of a joint investigative committee to define all circumstances and assign responsibility for those killings.”

But Robert Satloff, Executive Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy argues that the anti-Israeli sentiment in Egypt has nothing to do with what Israel does. “[Anti-Israeli sentiment] is the product of more than 20 years of lack of investment in peace which has grown cold and even frigid,” Satloff said. “In order for the Mubarak regime to protect itself against accusations of working quietly with Israel, the regime stoked anti-Israeli public sentiment in Egyptian society.” However, Satloff acknowledges that the lack of progress in the peace process also contributes to the negative feelings about Israel.

Both sides at fault?

Satloff argues that there are very few tangible aspects of the Egyptian-Israeli relationship that remain, and that peace between the two countries has already been denuded of virtually all its contents. He said that there is no major public figure in Egypt today to stand up and say that peace with Israel is in Egypt’s national interest and needs the same protection it was afforded under Mubarak.

Hamzawy blames Israel for its inability to adjust to the Arab spring and the power of Arab public opinion. “Israel needs to come to terms with legitimate popular demands, such as creating an independent Palestinian state, stop settlement activities in the occupied land and show its commitment to non-belligerent orientation in the region.”

Hamzawy also says, short of a resolution to the Palestinian question, there is nothing that any Egyptian government or president can do to prevent the current deterioration in the Egyptian-Israeli relationship. “The transitional government in Egypt did its best to contain the public anger over the killing of Egyptian soldiers and the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces extended the [Mubarak era] emergency law in the aftermath of the public breaking into the Israeli Embassy,” Hamzawy added.

Nir of Americans for Peace Now argues that while Israel should push for real peace and resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict once and for all, Egyptian leaders should make it clear that peace with Israel is a national security interest and, as such, should be preserved at all cost.

A cold peace gets colder

The future of the Egyptian-Israeli relations was already uncertain, even before the latest escalation of tensions. Actually, beginning with the Egyptian popular uprising in Tahrir Square no one has dared to predict which way the relationship will veer. But Nir noted that the reason why the peace between Israel and Egypt was considered cold was the nature of the dynamics surrounding the Camp David Accords which, he says, were never really embraced by the Egyptian citizenry.

Nir also believes that an early push on the Palestinian issue, particularly by the U.S., could have helped avert regional tensions in general.

“The U.S. should have been much more proactive in resuming the peace process during the past year or so,” Nir said. “It should have been much more proactive to find an alternative to the Palestinian action at the U.N., which would have created a foundation for reliable negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and indeed a better regional atmosphere.”

Satloff said he does not anticipate the Egyptians going to war with Israel, but cannot rule out problems down the road. “I do not think this relationship in a ‘no-peace, no-war’ situation is sustainable, there will be a potential natural drift toward conflict,” Satloff said.

Satloff added he called on President Obama to intervene personally to preserve the Camp David Accords.

”Everything America has accomplished in the Middle East during the last 30 years has been built on the foundations of the Camp David Accords, and the transformation of Egypt from Soviet client to American ally. If that foundation collapses, much of America’s standing in the region collapses as well,” said Satloff.