YEMEN: Yemen, a revolution interrupted?
SANA'A, 4 March 2011 (IRIN) - Heyel Habdul’s cramped two-room apartment is at the top of a dark staircase in a scruffy district of unfinished buildings and tiny tenements in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a.
He has been a teacher for over 20 years, but struggles to get by on a salary of $260, which includes a recent government pay rise for public workers. His rent, at $130 a month, has doubled over the last few years, but he says his landlord is an “illiterate” who makes it plain there is no negotiation when his money is due.
Habdul, 38, has a wife and two-year-old son to support. He took bank loans to get married, buy furniture and cover family medical bills, and those repayments eat into his income. He is occasionally forced into borrowing from relatives, and embarrassingly requesting lines of credit from neighborhood shopkeepers.
“When we can’t cover some of our needs, we ignore them,” he said, putting an end to that line of questioning.
Habdul teaches maths and Arabic to indifferent students in overcrowded classes. He describes an education service in which securing a job is based on bribes paid to the local education office, and promotion on connections, and how cozy you are with the headmaster.
It is a system that delivers a literacy rate of just 61 percent, and leaves girls especially disadvantaged, according to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF). It shovels students out into a job market where there is 40 percent unemployment and half of all graduates do not have full-time work.
President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been in power for virtually Habdul’s entire life, but the political storm of protest that has swept North Africa and the Middle East has now reached Yemen.
Since early February street protests have been demanding the end of his 32-year rule, the end of corruption, and more jobs. On 3 February, students occupied a previously non-descript junction outside Sana’a University, emulating the tactics that delivered change in Tunisia and Egypt.
Would Habdul join them? He said he sympathized with the protesters, but was still thinking about whether to go out onto the streets. His hesitancy is partly based on concern about what change might actually bring.
Saleh is seen as a shrewd manipulator of a centralized patronage-based system that infuses both formal politics and institutions, and helps determine the equally important balance of tribal-based support, analysts say. In a country with a staggering number of guns in private hands and pre-existing rivalries, the concern is that Yemen could end up looking like Libya rather than Egypt.
“I fear that the country may be divided unto smaller states because of the illiteracy of our people and the tribal nature of Yemen society,” Habdul said.
He acknowledges what the government has built, the roads, the infrastructure, and it was even a free public programme that allowed him to study to be a teacher after he failed to finish high school. But it is the government’s narrative of chaos if Saleh goes that resonates with Habdul.
“To live in security and safety,” is top of his list of things he wishes for Yemen.
Mounting problems
In recent years, the government’s authority has been seen to fray, coinciding with dwindling oil revenues that lubricate the patronage system. It has faced increasingly violent secessionist unrest in the south, and an on-off war with separatists in the northern region of Sa’ada, stretching back to 2004.
The initial student protest was quickly joined by a coalition of opposition groups known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) and ordinary citizens. There have also been defections from the ruling General People’s Congress.
Into this mix have been messages of solidarity from the secessionist southern movement, and the Houthi rebels in the north, which the anti-government protesters have welcomed and claimed as a positive sign of national unity.
Initially, Yemen’s protests were marked by violence. An attack by pro-government supporters on the university area on 22 February left two dead, and clashes with security forces in the southern city of Aden have been far deadlier. In total, over 19 people are estimated to have lost their lives, although the government now says it respects the right to protest.
Riding the storm?
Saleh is seeking to engage and “ride out the storm” with a series of concessions, according to analyst Hafez Al-Bukari of the Yemen Polling Centre, a public opinion survey group. He has announced that he will not seek another presidential term in 2013, neither would his son, Ahmed, succeed him, and has called for negotiations leading to a government of national unity.
The government has announced that 50,000 jobs would be created for graduates – albeit raising eyebrows as to how that will be achieved – and has called on religious leaders to mediate.
Saleh had earlier rallied his tribal supporters to occupy Tahrir Square, in the central business district, neatly robbing the pro-change coalition of what would have been a powerful symbol. Anti-goverment protests have been matched with pro-Saleh marches, although the opposition claim some of those supporters are bussed in.
“We admit there have been mistakes and there are problems, but they can be resolved through dialogue,” a pro-Saleh businessman and sheik, who asked not to be identified, told IRIN. But he warned he would not countenance the president being run out of power.
“If the current crisis is not resolved within one or two weeks, we will see assassinations on both sides and we will target those that have sent the demonstrators… I’m ready to mobilize my supporters to fight for the president.”
Hamid Al-Ahmar, from one of Yemen’s wealthiest and most powerful families, is a leading light in what is regarded as the largest and best-organised opposition party, the moderate Islamic Islah, which dominates the JMP coalition. He also sent his tribesmen to the university to protect the demonstrators.
Given that level of support, Yemen’s political crisis is widely reported as a struggle between Saleh and members of the Al-Ahmar family, especially Hamid. “People are behind the demonstrators, senior opposition leaders, but they will eventually negotiate,” the sheik said.
But a political deal is not what the students gathered outside the university want. They are talking revolution rather than a leadership makeover: “We don’t trust the opposition, they are part of the regime,” Adil Al-Aswar, a member of a committee set up to coordinate the protest movement, told IRIN. “We want a government that is concerned with poverty, corruption, not just religion.”
Rumours of deals
There is a tinge of freedom in the air around the protest tents, festooned with satirical posters of the president. Small knots of people break into impromptu chants, drumming and dance, and loudspeakers blare exhortations that Saleh must go; but it is a slow-motion revolution.
“Some revolutions take years to be fulfilled,” said Al-Bukari of the Yemen Polling Centre. “Each regime has its tipping point, in Yemen we haven’t reached that critical stage yet, but it could happen soon.”
Student organiser Al-Aswar fears a deal might eventually be struck between the JMP and Saleh, sidelining the protest movement. He believes only by staying in their “tent city” can they exert some pressure, but acknowledges the weakness of Yemen’s civil society and the difficulty they could face in influencing events.
First year medical student Mustafa Altayan is adamant the fight continues. "Even if the one who comes after Saleh is corrupt, we'll go back on the streets."
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Copyright © IRIN 2011
This material comes to you via IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or its Member States.
IRIN is a project of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
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