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Venezuela, Colombia embark on rapprochement course

RIA Novosti

17:34 16/08/2010

August 16 (RIA Novosti) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez met with Colombia’s new President Juan Manuel Santos on August 10, 2010, for talks aimed at restoring diplomatic ties and solving the festering problems between the two countries. The meeting took place in the Colombian city of Santa Maria at the request of Hugo Chavez, just a few days after President Santos was sworn in.

RIA Novosti asked Emil Dabagyan, a leading Russian expert on Latin America, to share his views on the event as well as the prospects for Venezuela-Colombia relations and the relations of these two countries with Russia and the United States. Mr. Dabagyan holds a PhD in history, and is a senior fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Latin American Studies.

What are your thoughts on the recent meeting between the presidents of Venezuela and Colombia? And what are the chances that the countries will normalize relations?

The presidential meeting was a success. Chavez and Santos discussed key problems in the bilateral relationship and agreed to begin normalizing ties.

One of the most important results is Chavez’s pledge to clamp down on Colombian guerrilla groups on Venezuelan soil. This has been a major source of the diplomatic rift. Tensions reached a breaking point on July 22, when the Colombian Ambassador to the Organization of American States showed video footage allegedly proving that Colombian guerrillas have a significant presence in Venezuela.

Chavez described the footage as a hoax and announced that Venezuela severed diplomatic ties with Colombia. He also threatened to suspend oil shipments to the United States. This was the dramatic culmination of his tense relationship with [former Colombian president] Uribe.

Santos, who is seen as Uribe’s successor, has promised to carry on with his predecessor’s policy to make Colombia a safe and democratic state and to combat the guerilla movement, which has always backed Chavez.

Yet, the outcome of this informal meeting between the two presidents made clear that the two sides are interested in a constructive, neighborly relationship. One cannot be a hundred percent sure, however, that the standoff is over for good. The root cause of the rift between Colombia and Venezuela lies in the different types of government the countries have. Democratic institutions are steadily developing in Colombia; its political opposition faces no repression, and there’s a free market economy and a free press. The Venezuelans have, meanwhile, embarked on a course toward what they call “21st -century socialism,” with all the consequences that entails.

Another important source of tension is that Colombia allows the United States to use its military bases for counter-narcotics operations. Chavez sees this as a threat to Venezuela’s national interests.

What course do you expect Venezuela to take toward the United States as it continues to normalize relations with Colombia?

Caracas sees the United States is its main adversary and an impediment to a multi-polar world. This is the basis for Venezuela’s good relations with Russia, another country advocating a multi-polar world order.

In light of this, conflicts between Venezuela and the United States are simply inevitable.

But despite the animosity, Caracas has no interest in severing ties with Washington.

Crude oil and oil products from Venezuela account for 11% of U.S. hydrocarbon imports. This brings huge revenues into Venezuela’s treasury coffers. Many analysts believe, therefore, that severing relations with the United States and, consequently, cutting off petroleum supplies would be like killing the goose that lays golden eggs.

The last threat of a break with the United States came on July 22, when Chavez severed relations with Colombia while also threatening to suspend oil shipments to the United States. But objectively, such a development seems highly unlikely.

Rhetoric aside, the revenues Venezuela gets from its oil exports to the United States are critical, even if the country has a strong presence on other foreign oil markets, notably China’s.

What effect will the anticipated rapprochement between Caracas and Bogota likely have on Venezuela’s relationship with Russia?

There will be no shift in relations with Russia. No negative shift, at least. Chavez has always had consistently good relations with Moscow. This fall, the Venezuelan president will visit Russia again. The two countries are continuing their active economic and defense cooperation. And it’s unlikely that any obstacles hindering the Russia-Venezuela relationship will arise any time soon.