SUDAN: Mounting ethnic tensions in the south - analysis
NASIR, 24 June 2009 (IRIN) - Leaders from northern and southern Sudan are currently meeting in Washington against the backdrop of a series of bloody clashes between rival ethnic groups in the south in recent months.
On 12 June, fighting broke out close to Nasir in Upper Nile State, Southern Sudan, when hundreds of armed Jikany Nuer men attacked a flotilla of 31 boats, including 27 carrying grain and other supplies for the UN World Food Programme (WFP), according to UN officials and eyewitnesses.
"The boats were carrying supplies to our enemy," said Jikany youth Peter Gatwech, recovering from a bullet wound to his stomach in Nasir hospital.
Dozens of people in Nasir said the attack on the boats was prompted after three other boats - thought to be carrying ammunition or arms upstream to the Lou - joined the convoy.
The attack cut supplies to the more than 19,000 displaced Lou Nuer people in the eastern town of Akobo, who had fled earlier fighting against the Murele.
The river convoy had to pass through Nasir - home of the Jikany Nuer people - and the latter want revenge for an attack by Lou gunmen on 8 May that left 71 mainly women and children dead in the village of Torkech.
"They killed so many of us," said Thiyang Gatbel, a young Jikany girl shot in the arm during the night attack, and still recovering in hospital. "We were sleeping outside under mosquito nets, and they surrounded the village."
In May, the special representative of the UN Secretary-General and head of the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), Ashraf Qazi, warned that death rates in the south had outnumbered those in the war-torn western region of Darfur.
CPA needs bolstering
Southern Sudan and the north must bolster efforts to implement the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to ease tensions in the south and avoid possible conflict with the north, observers have warned.
"If this agreement fails, there is a risk that all of Sudan will go to war again," said Melanie Teff of Refugees International. "Every possible step must be taken to prevent a return to the horrors of the past."
The CPA ended 22 years of conflict between north and south, and led to the establishment of a semi-autonomous administration in Southern Sudan.
"The danger of violence across Southern Sudan could intensify in the months ahead," the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in a 21 June report. It warned of the "failure of the government of Southern Sudan and the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) to protect civilians".
Southern divisions
The Jikany-Lou battles are only one of the conflicts in the south, where complex local alliances reflect divisions and power struggles within the southern leadership, as well as tensions between north and south.
"People are struggling. They are very fearful there will be new attacks by the Lou," said Peter Gony, the Southern Sudan Refugee and Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC) representative (government’s humanitarian arm) for Nasir.
Local officials are keen to downplay the attack on the aid shipment. "The attack on the [food aid] boats was not political or against the UN," said Nasir Countycommissioner Maj-Gen Garhoth Garkuoth. "It was only a matter of the [Jikany Nuer] people not wanting them to travel to the Lou."
Others warn that such conflicts are connected to wider rivalries - with some southern politicians directly accusing the north of backing militias to exploit existing southern divisions.
Khartoum arming southern factions?
Observers say there are concerns the Khartoum government is rearming certain factions in the south, and Southern Sudan president Salva Kiir has blamed "outside forces" for escalating traditional rivalries. He has warned of more tensions as Sudan moves towards critical elections slated for February, and a referendum on southern independence in 2011.
"They [tensions and rivalries] emanate from a diabolical strategy aimed at projecting the people of Southern Sudan as a people who cannot govern themselves, particularly as we approach general elections and the referendum," Kiir told lawmakers at the opening session of the southern parliament on 15 June.
Disarmament conundrum
Disarmament in Southern Sudan has taken place at the same time as other groups have rearmed. According to the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey, this is “indicative of divisions” within the southern government.
Forced disarmament, local analysts warn, could leave individual communities at greater risk from rival armed groups.
"The issue of how to handle militias - whether independent or aligned with security forces in the North - is connected to these divisions," the survey report said. "A renewed focus on South-South dialogue and reconciliation is essential if the South is to remain unified."
Not far from Nasir, the situation remains tense: thousands have fled their homes in the wake of retaliatory raids by southern military forces following the boat convoy attack, and among the Jikany Nuer deep distrust remains of both the Lou and the government.
"The soldiers were guarding supplies for the Lou," said Jikany elder Peter Chol. "We had to stop those supplies or we would be weaker and they would attack - but the [Southern] soldiers came and burned our village down for doing that."
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Copyright © IRIN 2009
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