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Analysis: Splits in South Africa's Democracy

Council on Foreign Relations

October 6, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

It's been a tough year for South Africa. Severe power shortages in January ground business to a halt (NYT), xenophobic violence in the spring forced thousands of immigrants to flee their homes (AP), and in late September, months of tensions in the ruling party spilled into the open with the resignation of President Thabo Mbeki. While most analysts believe the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will remain the country's strongest political force, there is widespread concern that internal party battles could prevent the government from addressing deepening political and economic problems.

The ANC division dates back to December 2007, when Jacob Zuma was elected leader of the party, sidelining then-leader Mbeki. Though Mbeki was slated to hold the presidency until elections in mid-2009, experts say the divisions with Zuma seriously weakened Mbeki's ability to govern. Following Mbeki's ouster, Kgalema Motlanthe, a party centrist, was installed as interim president, but party infighting continues. "A struggle for the soul of the ANC is underway," argues academic James Hamill in an article for Britain's Chatham House think tank. As a result, he writes, the ANC is "increasingly blind to the bigger picture at home and abroad."

Opinion is divided on the likelihood of a breakaway party forming. The ANC denies talk of a split (Reuters) into rival factions, but CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Princeton N. Lyman says in a CFR.org podcast the rift within the party is "very serious" and that Zuma's faction continues to "purge" Mbeki loyalists from the government. Some experts say a new political party could make South Africa more democratic. "Few would disagree that such a split would inject an energizing dynamic to our country's body politic and to our democracy in general," writes Prince Mashele of the Institute for Security Studies, a South Africa-based think tank.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.