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Analysis: Political Tea Leaves in Afghanistan

Council on Foreign Relations

September 10, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

On most matters of social development, from health care to literacy, the United States and Afghanistan are worlds apart. But on presidential politics, the disparate democracies both find themselves enmeshed in prolonged electoral contests with potentially transformative results. A year before Afghans cast ballots for their president, voters, politicians, and analysts already are dissecting President Hamid Karzai's political record. And like the American contest, the race for Afghanistan's top office often is cast as a referendum on the country's future.

In five years as Afghanistan's first democratically elected president, analysts view Karzai's record as decidedly mixed. Afghan officials point to progress expanding citizens' access to health care, education, and a healthy growth in tax revenue. According to the International Monetary Fund's most recent figures, Afghanistan's gross domestic product (GDP) increased 8.2 percent between 2006 and 2007, to $7.7 billion (PDF). And in a new 2008 survey of the opium trade, the United Nations credited strong leadership (as well as bad weather) for a 19 percent decline in opium poppy cultivation from 2007. The majority of the heroin-derived crop is now confined to the country's southwestern provinces (PDF), where permanent Taliban settlements and organized crime rings remain active.

Karzai has vowed to build on these gains. In an interview with the Associated Press on August 19, Karzai confirmed he would seek reelection. Afghanistan's constitution allows for presidential candidates to run for two consecutive five-year terms (PDF); Karzai was elected to his first term in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote. But Karzai's mandate has not translated into unwavering support. An October 2007 opinion poll (PDF) by the Asia Foundation found that despite generally positive feelings about the direction of their country, the vast majority of Afghans felt the government cared little about the public's problems.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.