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Analysis: Hezbollah Soldiers On

Council on Foreign Relations

August 14, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

In the twenty-four months since the UN Security Council called for "the immediate cessation" of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, few shots have been fired by either side. Cross-border rhetoric notwithstanding, the bitter rivals even managed to pull off a controversial prisoner swap in July (WashPost). But the UN's broader goal outlined two years ago—to find a permanent solution to the conflict—remains elusive. As Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak put it, the UN resolution designed to mediate lasting peace has "failed to fulfill its goals" (AFP).

For Hezbollah, however, the last two years have been a period of rapid ascendancy, including expanded military might, electoral strength, and what appears to be enhanced political cover (USNews) from Lebanon's new president. Beirut's policy statement legitimizing Hezbollah's right to "liberate lands that have remained occupied" by Israel—a deeply troubling prospect for Israeli leaders—is further proof of Hezbollah's increasing influence (Haaretz).

The question for Hezbollah now appears to be, "What next?" Hassan Nasrallah, the militant group's reclusive leader, has sought to keep attention on its founding mission: defending against an Israeli occupation of Lebanon. During a speech in Iran on August 6, Nasrallah said Hezbollah's struggle had finally weakened its Zionist enemy. Israel "is only a spider web if not weaker," he said, days after Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced plans to step down (Telegraph) amid corruption charges. But few analysts believe the Shiite guerilla group is preparing to ease its militancy. Indeed, many point to allegations that Hezbollah has recruited in Germany (Spiegel) as proof of the group's broader ambitions.

Enabling this expansion, terrorism experts say, is the covert hand of Iran. Middle East security analysts Jonathan D. Halevi and Ashley Perry write that Hezbollah has become Iran's proxy for exporting Islamic ideals far beyond Lebanon (Ynet).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.