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Georgia-Russia Clash: A 'Bump' or 'Turn' in Road?

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Stephen Sestanovich, George F. Kennan Senior Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

August 11, 2008

Stephen Sestanovich, CFR senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies, says the fighting between Georgia and Russia over the Georgian province of South Ossetia is more a “war” than a “conflict,” and could have far-reaching consequences. He says that it may well decide how the West regards Russia in the future. The United States and Europe must decide " whether this now puts Russia in a different category, a kind of international disturber or outlaw that can't be treated as a partner in the way that Western countries have wanted to since the end of the Cold War,” Sestanovich says.

A conflict has now arisen in the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia, which borders on Russia’s North Ossetia. The international community says there should be a cease-fire. President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia has reportedly signed this cease-fire, but we haven't yet heard from the Russians. What started all this?

This “war”—and I think that is a more appropriate term than “conflict”—began in earnest at the end of last week when the Georgians responded to shelling from the Russian-controlled part of South Ossetia into their own portion of the province and maybe into Georgian territory proper. But this was only the spark that produced the big fire. The confrontation has been building for several months, and one might even say for several years. The big increase in tension came in April when the Russians announced that they would upgrade their relations with the two breakaway provinces of Georgia—Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They followed that by increasing the troop contingent that they had in those provinces, essentially a peacekeeping force. They increased military pressure, shooting down Georgian drones and sending Russian aircraft over Georgian territory.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.