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Muddled Israeli Political Picture Could Keep Olmert in Power

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Gerald M. Steinberg, Head of the Political Science department, Bar Ilan University, Israel
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org

August 4, 2008

In late July, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced plans to step down as soon as his Kadima party elects a new leader in a vote scheduled for September 17. Yet it remains far from certain whether Olmert will actually depart office at that time, says Gerald M. Steinberg, an expert on Israeli politics. Steinberg says the country's political system is so chaotic that Olmert could well stay on as much as six months beyond his planned departure in September. The looming leadership succession contest within Kadima will likely pivot on national security issues, he says. Regarding Olmert initiatives such as peace talks with Palestinian and Syrian leaders, he says: "There's no real credibility among Israelis for either set of negotiations," adding that he doesn't suspect that dynamic is likely to change much following the installation of a new prime minister.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is being investigated for a number of alleged crimes, announced suddenly last week that he would resign as prime minister once his Kadima party picks a new party leader next month. Who do you think will emerge as the Kadima leader?

I think the odds are Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, but they are not high. We haven't had any kind of a campaign yet, and there's really no precedent. [Former Prime Minister] Ariel Sharon formed this party in 2005 and put himself at the top. He gave Olmert the second position, largely because Olmert was cooperative and wasn't threatening. And Olmert became prime minister [after Sharon suffered a crippling stroke] and carried Kadima through the elections because there was no other choice. His announcement is going to open up Kadima completely. Having served as foreign minister and being entirely untouched by corruption, Tzipi Livni is generally popular.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.