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Current and Future Trends in Special Operations Warfare

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Michael G. Vickers, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations, Low-Intensity Conflict, and Interdependent Capabilities
Interviewer: Greg Bruno, Staff writer

July 24, 2008

Michael G. Vickers was among the key architects behind the paramilitary operation that drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan. Now, three decades later, he is the top civilian advisor in the Pentagon on the capabilities of U.S. Special Operations forces, the fastest growing branch of the U.S. military. That growth is likely to continue. In Iraq, for example, Vickers says he expects Special Operations Forces to "remain at their current levels for a significant period of time" after the majority of conventional U.S. forces leave. He also expects a protracted Special Operations presence in Afghanistan.

Beyond the current war zones, Vickers says the Pentagon is watching "scores" of high-priority countries in the global fight against terror. And while Vickers says the battle against extremism "is fundamentally winnable," victory will take years. "Most irregular wars take time to win. They typically take a decade or more when they involve a single country," he says. "One that takes advantage of globalization and spans continents can be expected to take at least that amount of time, or more."

There's been a lot of talk in the presidential campaign this year about the future of forces in Central Command, specifically Iraq and what to do in Afghanistan. I wonder how any changes in force structures would translate to Special Operations. Redeployment—would a drawdown mean a drawdown in special forces capability in the region?

Our plans are dependent on future conditions, but it is a safe assumption to say that as conventional forces draw down in Iraq, for example, Special Operations Forces will likely remain at their current levels for a significant period of time, and with their Iraqi counterparts, assume greater responsibility for the battle space that is vacated by drawing down conventional forces.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.