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Analysis: As Afghanistan Roils, Pakistan Draws Heat

Council on Foreign Relations

July 15, 2008
Author: Jayshree Bajoria

Patience with Pakistan appears to be fraying in Washington and Kabul, particularly over Islamabad's response to alleged cross-border infiltration by militants ensconced in its tribal areas. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, expressed concern on a July 12 visit to Islamabad over what he termed Pakistan's lack of pressure on insurgents flowing into Afghanistan. Last month was the deadliest for U.S. troops (PDF) in Afghanistan since the war started in 2001, and NATO's commander in Afghanistan has attributed the surging violence to "sanctuary areas" in Pakistan's tribal lands. Afghan President Hamid Karzai even threatened to send troops (Guardian) into Pakistan to hunt for Taliban leaders, although most experts doubt the threat will amount to much.

Pakistani officials have rejected charges that their territory is a staging area for the insurgency in Afghanistan. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi stressed during a recent Washington visit that the increase in violence in Afghanistan is "not of Pakistan's creation" (Video). This has not assuaged concerns, however. Persistent reports (HChron) indicate U.S. officials may be considering invoking the "hot pursuit" doctrine to launch raids into Pakistani territory.

Analysts believe the United States has been beefing up its presence in the Afghan-Pakistan border region since the beginning of the year; news reports also suggest the U.S. military has increasingly been using pilotless Predator drone aircraft to strike suspected terrorist targets inside Pakistan. K. Alan Kronstadt of the U.S.-funded Congressional Research Service wrote in an April 2008 report (PDF) that "three Predators are said to be deployed at a secret Pakistani airbase and can be launched without specific permission from the Islamabad government."

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.