DRC-RWANDA: A small step towards peace in the east (analysis)
KISANGANI, 5 June 2008 (IRIN) - A disarmament pledge by two minor Rwandan Hutu rebel groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a welcome, if small, step to restoring peace in the devastated region, according to the government and analysts.
Rwandan insurgents are one of the key elements in a complex web of armed groups in a region where violence, especially sexual violence against women, is still widespread five years after the official end of DRC's last civil war. Well over a million people in eastern DRC are internally displaced and most depend on assistance from humanitarian agencies.
Under the 'roadmap for disarmament', unveiled in the city of Kisangani on 26 May, the Ralliement pour l'unité et la democratié (RUD) and the Rassemblement populaire rwandais (RPR) agreed to gather at two sites and start handing over their weapons. In return, they want their security to be guaranteed, the UN mission in DRC, MONUC, to oversee the process, and the DRC government not to forcibly repatriate them to Rwanda.
"I think since we are offering to disarm and to be relocated, the international community will aid in convincing the Rwandan government that it is essential that there is a political framework; a framework is simply inter-Rwandan dialogue to ensure the fighters [in DRC] feel safe to go home," RUD spokesman Augustin Dukuze told IRIN.
The Rwandan government, however, has long refused to talk to those it holds responsible for the 1994 genocide. President Paul Kagame twice sent troops into eastern DRC to try to neutralise the so-called 'génocidaires’.
The roadmap was immediately disowned by the much larger, if somewhat fragmented, Forces démocratiques pour la liberation du Rwanda (FDLR), which boasts around 7,000 fighters, compared to RUD and RPR's estimated 400.
"Whatever happened in Kisangani does not concern us because we were not present," said FDLR spokesman Ignace Murwanashyaka.
Long road ahead
Nevertheless, for Anneke van Woudenberg, a senior researcher on DRC for Human Rights Watch, the agreement left room for optimism.
"The Kisangani meeting was a step in the right direction by encouraging some Rwandan armed groups in Congo to disarm and resettle in Rwanda or elsewhere, but we are far from reaching the end of the road," she told IRIN.
"It's the FDLR who pose a serious problem for peace in eastern Congo and the safety and security of its citizens. Their failure to participate was disappointing," said Woudenberg, adding, however, that armed action against the group should only be used once all other means had been exhausted.
In November 2007 in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, the DRC and Rwandan governments renewed their commitment to dealing with such armed groups in an agreement that provided for the use of military action if efforts towards voluntary disarmament failed.
"As part of these non-violent options, diplomats must remind the Congolese government that they must stop any financial or military support given to FDLR combatants, either directly or indirectly, through other groups … They must also urge Rwandan authorities to take concrete steps towards providing an environment that would encourage the voluntary return of FDLR combatants," added Woudenberg.
David Mugnier, Central Africa Project Director for the International Crisis Group, was also encouraged by the roadmap, despite the small size of the groups involved, saying it could finally "kick start the process of disarmament, repatriation or relocation", not least because the process is backed by the DRC government, civil society in the Kivu provinces and most of the international community.
"Whether or not these two groups will effectively regroup and disarm is a bit too early to say but [...] the process seems to be on track and this could create an incentive for other combatants to join it," Mugnier told IRIN.
But the process is not without risks, he added. "It cannot be excluded that the FDLR could rapidly take control of the areas vacated by RUD and RPR. For the moment the capacity of MONUC and the [DRC military] to challenge them is limited."
Renewed efforts
MONUC spokesman, Kemal Saiki, told IRIN that representatives of "certain branches of the FDLR" had actually been present during the Kisangani talks, even if the group proper had distanced itself from the roadmap.
"So I don't think it will be long before discussions take place. [But] there is a principle that is not negotiable and that is the departure or the temporary relocation [of the armed Rwandan Hutu groups in eastern DRC]”, he said.
Getting the FDLR on board "is the aim of the Nairobi process", added Saiki.
"There are sensitisation efforts going on... there are also political and diplomatic options and military pressure that are still present."
Some of the diplomatic pressure comes from the United States, an active sponsor of peace efforts in eastern DRC. "The time is now for the Rwandan armed groups in Eastern Congo to disarm and repatriate or face consequences of further isolation and condemnation," the State Department warned in late May.
Seraphin Ngwej, Joseph Kabila's roving ambassador and special envoy for the Great Lakes region, told IRIN that two disarmament sites and eight transit sites had already been identified.
"We are not talking about size of the groups involved but the possibility of solving once and for all the issue of Rwandan combatants in the DRC. In the DRC, there's no RUD, FDLR/FOCA (the armed wing of FDLR), no RPR, there is only the problem of the Rwandan armed groups, and once one of the groups is involved in the process, we consider it a very good thing," he said.
Last chance
Congo's Interior and Security Minister, Gen. Denis Kalume, said, "This process [disarmament and demobilisation] is the last chance for all the Rwandan armed groups before forceful action is taken."
According to MONUC, the DRC army has already deployed supplementary battalions in North Kivu's Walikale district, and in areas previously under FDLR's control.
However, Philippe Biyoya, a professor of political science at Kinshasa's Protestant University, said this was a dangerous move.
"I think using military operations to compel them to disarm won't be a solution for the government because the FDLR are well organised and that will trigger a new Rwandan war on Congolese soil," he warned.
ei-am/bn/jm
Theme(s): (IRIN) Conflict, (IRIN) Refugees/IDPs
[ENDS]
Copyright © IRIN 2008
This material comes to you via IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or its Member States.
IRIN is a project of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
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