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Analysis: No Easy Answers in Lebanon

Council on Foreign Relations

May 20, 2008
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

Whether Lebanon veered close to "civil war" this month—a question broached by many newspapers—seems purely academic at this point, and perhaps irrelevant. Beirut settled into a tenuous calm after Lebanon's cabinet conceded (CNN) the immediate demands of Hezbollah, but the upheaval resolved none of the many issues destabilizing the country. Lebanon's paralyzed government, Beirut's inability to reform its electoral system, and Hezbollah's broad influence continue to loom as threats to regional stability.

These concerns dominated recent meetings in Qatar, brokered by the Arab League. Lebanese officials sat down with their Hezbollah rivals and agreed to allow Qatar's prime minister propose a way to regulate Hezbollah's weapons (AFP). Analysis of the event suggests it could prove a diplomatic coup for Qatar (LAT), should it solve a problem that has for months riddled the Arab League. For Lebanon, however, easy answers remain elusive. CFR's Mohamad Bazzi, writing in the UAE paper The National, says the arms issue fits into a "Gordian Knot" of problems that includes: "the need to agree on a new electoral law before parliamentary elections in 2009; the country’s future relationship with Syria; and the disarming of various factions in 12 Palestinian refugee camps scattered across Lebanon."

Although news reports generally scored April's violence as a victory for Hezbollah (WashPost), experts say the political fallout is in fact much more complicated. Indeed, some say the country may be emerging as a place nobody can decisively control—neither Hezbollah nor its pro-government foes. Although Hezbollah fighters succeeded in rapidly taking control of large parts of Beirut, they ceded these positions within hours to the Lebanese military. Newsweek's

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.