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'Prolonged Crisis' in Lebanon Reflects 'Cold War' in Region

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Michael Young, Opinion Page Editor, Daily Star, Beirut
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

May 12, 2008

Michael Young, a political analyst in Beirut, says Hezbollah’s efforts to impose its will in Lebanon have led to “a prolonged crisis that is a reflection of the cold war in the region” between Iran and the United States and their respective allies. He worries that Hezbollah’s latest efforts to show off its military power may spawn genuine hatred between Shiites and Sunnis in Lebanon. “Things could get a lot worse before they get better,” he says.

Things have apparently quieted down in Lebanon today, but is the airport still closed? Are there still Hezbollah roadblocks?

The airport is still closed and will probably remain closed until Hezbollah is satisfied that it’s won. But I don’t think Hezbollah is going to win so we may be in for a long closure. Although the Lebanese army is present in western Beirut, effective control over that part of the city is in the hands of militias of Hezbollah and its allies. In eastern Beirut, which is predominantly Christian, we have a very different situation. It’s fairly normal and for political reasons, at least for the moment, Hezbollah does not seem to want to enter into Christian areas. It seems to fear that that might backfire politically. So we are in a bit of a bizarre situation.

Most of the roads between eastern and western Beirut are closed by Hezbollah. They call this a “civil disobedience” campaign but effectively they’ve managed to split off parts of the capital from each other.

You said that Hezbollah is not going to win but haven’t they already “won”?

No, what they have done is they’ve managed to take over western Beirut fairly easily because there was no real military resistance to Hezbollah there. But ultimately a majority of Lebanese are opposed to Hezbollah.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.