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Analysis: Myanmar in Crisis

Council on Foreign Relations

May 8, 2008
Author: Jayshree Bajoria

A cyclone in Myanmar last weekend has so far left tens of thousands dead and missing and many more homeless, exposing the vulnerabilities of a repressed population under an isolationist military regime. Even while the government sought international aid, its resistance to allowing entry to Western agencies has resulted in a delay in relief efforts (BBC). Daily estimates of the death toll have mounted, with a U.S. diplomat saying the number of fatalities could rise up to 100,000 (WashPost).

In response to the disaster, several countries, UN agencies, and international NGOs have offered assistance (AP), but Myanmar’s government has only allowed limited aid into the country thus far. While the United States waits to fly in aid supplies—it offered $3 million and the use of U.S. Navy ships to help find the missing—India, China, Thailand, and other Asian neighbors, less critical of the regime, have been allowed (Reuters) to fly in supplies. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has suggested the United Nations invoke the doctrine of the “responsibility to protect” civilians as the basis for a resolution to allow the delivery of international aid even without the junta’s permission (IHT). But the French proposal faced opposition (NEWS.com.au) from Security Council members Russia, China, and South Africa as interference in a domestic crisis.

The cyclone comes at a time of extreme political sensitivity for the regime. The country is set to vote on a referendum May 10 to decide whether to adopt a new constitution. Myanmar’s government says the constitution will pave the way for elections by 2010, but critics, including the U.S. State Department, have said it appears “intended only to perpetuate the rule of the existing military junta in Burma.”

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.