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Analysis: A Change of Command

Council on Foreign Relations

April 25, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

The promotion of Gen. David H. Petraeus to Central Command chief this week came as little surprise to many military observers. The nomination is seen by some as a logical next step (NYT) for one of this generation’s best known army officers. Less clear is what his ascendancy will mean for U.S. military strategy in the greater Middle East, which falls within Centcom’s jurisdiction. Petraeus is considered the father of the army’s current counterinsurgency doctrine—he helped write the manual on the subject—and the nominee to replace him in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, was the general’s right-hand man in Baghdad. In announcing the promotions at the Pentagon on April 23, Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates said the moves were aimed at preserving “the likelihood of continued momentum and progress,” and should “provide some continuity for a new administration.”

Whether the next administration will be looking for continuity is another question. While Petraeus has been a strong advocate for maintaining troop levels in Iraq at about 140,000 through the summer, Gates acknowledged whoever assumes the Oval Office in January 2009 will “have the opportunity to make a change.” And if a Democrat wins office in November it could fall to Petraeus to craft plans for any reductions. Both leading Democratic candidates—Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)—have said they would reduce troop numbers in Iraq and beef up resources on the Afghan front after taking office. The presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), meanwhile, shares Petraeus’s views on Iraqi deployments. Some see the planned job changes as President Bush attempting to lock in the current policy (WashPost) beyond his presidency.

Beyond the political implications of the command shuffle, military experts are divided on the greater strategic implications for the region.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.