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Analysis: Tremors in the South Caucasus

Council on Foreign Relations

April 25, 2008
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

When Kosovo seceded from Serbia earlier this year, Russia opposed UN recognition of an independent Kosovar state on the grounds that it violated the sovereignty and wishes of Moscow’s ally, Serbia. Moscow also warned the move opened the door for Georgia’s separatist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which rely heavily on Russia, to seek independence. Now, just weeks after NATO leaders irked Russia by signaling a willingness to expand ties with Georgia and Ukraine (AP), Moscow seems to have made its response. Much to the consternation of Georgian authorities, the Kremlin announced it might increase trade relations (WSJ) with the breakaway Abkhazis and Ossetians.

It remains unclear what will come of Moscow’s overtures. The Kremlin says it wants to avoid conflict with Georgia, which has characterized Russia’s intentions as “creeping annexation.” Russia’s parliament stands ready for more debate on how Russia should characterize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, though the Russian news agency RIA Novosti says the Russian parliament is unlikely to recognize the territories. Regardless, a top Council of Europe official has criticized Russia for entertaining the debate in the first place, adding that Russian bilateral relations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia threaten to undermine stability in the region. The potential for broader tensions was underscored following an incident in which an unmanned Georgian reconnaissance plane was shot down over Abkhazia. Georgia blames the incident on Russia (RFE/RL), though Moscow denies involvement.

The dispute spells concern for the South Caucasus, a region plagued by unresolved secessionist battles and messy politics. South Ossetia, for instance, is culturally conjoined with the North Ossetia region, across the border in geographic Russia. The region has its own language, Ossetian, though since the breakup of the Soviet Union the Georgian government has pressed for Georgian to be used and taught nationwide.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.