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Fuller: Russia May be Seeking 'Joint State' of Abkhazia-Georgia

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Elizabeth Fuller, Analyst, Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

April 25, 2008

Russia’s signals of closer ties with the breakaway Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have prompted concerns about a Russian reprisal for Western recognition of Kosovo’s independence. But Elizabeth Fuller, an expert on Georgian and Transcaucasus affairs, says she does not believe Moscow is seeking to recognize an independent Abkhazia or South Ossetia. In part, she says, that would clash with its own rejection of Chechen efforts to secede. Fuller believes Moscow may instead be seeking to promote a joint-state approach for Georgia and its secessionist republics. Russia is currently advancing this approach in another former Soviet republic where it has leverage, Moldova, which has been unable to resolve its conflict with the breakaway Trans-Dniester region.

The UN Security Council on Wednesday took up the complaint of Georgia against the Russians for allegedly shooting down an unmanned reconnaissance plane over separatist Abkhazia. Can you give us a short description of what the situation is regarding Abkhazia and Georgia, as well as recent steps the Russians have been taking toward Georgia?

The shooting down of the reconnaissance aircraft was something that obviously couldn’t have been planned in advance, but it was a situation that, if you like, played into Russia’s hands in that it gave Moscow an opportunity to try to prove that Georgia is in the wrong. The Russian argument is that Georgia violated the cease-fire agreement which Tbilisi signed with Abkhazia in 1994. That agreement says the two sides should observe peace on the ground, at sea, and in the air, and it says that there should be no heavy military equipment in the “conflict zone” of which Abkhazia is a part. The agreement is clearly open to multiple interpretations, but Russia has seized on it as a way to beat Georgia over the head with it.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.