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Analysis: Mugabe's Weakening Grip

Council on Foreign Relations

March 25, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

Perhaps the only thing more unbelievable than the astronomical inflation rate in Zimbabwe—officially over 100,000 percent—is that President Robert Mugabe is still in power. As Zimbabwe’s economy has spiraled ever deeper, the president has curried the loyalty of supporters by handing out prominent political positions and printing money. Yet ahead of elections on March 29 (ElectionGuide.org), that support no longer looks guaranteed. Excitement surrounds the candidacy of Simba Makoni, a former finance minister (Newsweek Int’l) who was expelled from the ruling party, ZANU-PF, when he declared his candidacy in February. It’s highly unlikely Makoni will win the election—which, in any case, virtually no one expects to be free and fair—but his defection signals a divide in ZANU-PF that Zimbabwe experts believe could extend to other groups thought to be loyal to Mugabe.

Faced with waning support, Mugabe appears to be on the defensive. Zimbabwe’s government debt increased 65-fold in a six-week period preelection, with the government raising salaries for security forces as well as purchasing farm equipment (FT). According to the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, Mugabe suspects high-level military and intelligence officials of allegiance with Makoni. Security groups now control many political institutions in Zimbabwe, as this new Backgrounder explains, so a shift in their allegiances could spell trouble for the president.

As Mugabe confronts dissent within his own party, he also is challenged by Morgan Tsvangirai, a past presidential candidate and leader of the opposition MDC party. Tsvangirai has been mobilizing support for nearly a decade and has an efficient grassroots campaign machine. Polling by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, a Zimbabwean group, shows Tsvangirai with 28 percent support (Times of London) and Makoni with 9 percent, though 42 percent of those polled refused to disclose their candidate preference.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.