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Analysis: Trouble in the Andes

Council on Foreign Relations

March 5, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

At first blush, the Colombian incursion into Ecuador this weekend to kill a top leader of the FARC guerrilla group had nothing to do with Venezuela. Yet every regional fracas in Latin America seems to involve Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and this one is no exception. Chavez was first to condemn the Colombian operation, and did so more heatedly (Economist) than Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. Both countries have since severed diplomatic relations with Colombia, which has struck back with a series of allegations about Venezuela and Ecuador’s relations with the FARC (NYT). The three-way dispute raises fears of a regional military conflict and highlights the complications of security in the region.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has aggressively sought to eradicate the FARC, and now claims his neighbors have been offering the group significant financial support as well as safe haven within their territories (Miami Herald), a charge both Venezuela and Ecuador deny. Documents from a rebel laptop seized by the Colombian government indicate ties between Chavez and the FARC, but the nature of those ties is ambiguous (AP). A 2004 report from the International Crisis Group warned that Colombia’s borders were the “weak link” in President Alvaro Uribe’s security strategy, and suggested that unless Colombia forged a joint strategy with Ecuador and Venezuela, it would not be able to resolve its conflict with the FARC. “If anything, Bogota had shown too much forebearance [sic] of its neighbors’ FARC support,” says a Washington Times editorial.

Despite virulent rhetoric from all sides, most analysts concur that a regional war is unlikely. For one, Venezuela’s military capabilities pale in comparison to Colombia’s, thanks to years of counternarcotics support from the United States.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.