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Analysis: After Kosovo Secedes

Council on Foreign Relations

February 12, 2008
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

After several false starts, Serbia’s restive province of Kosovo seems set to declare independence in the very near future (CNN). A declaration would mark the end of an era for Kosovo, which erupted in ethnic violence in the late 1990s, prompted a U.S.-led intervention in 1999, and has been a protectorate of the United Nations ever since. It would also close a chapter for the Balkan region, in all likelihood marking the final splintering of what had been the confederation of Yugoslavia.

Yet Kosovo’s secession seems likely to open as many questions as it resolves. First is the matter of Kosovo’s own stability. Kosovo’s ethnic Serb minority, numbering at least 100,000, remain scattered in pockets throughout the province. Some observers fear these communities could face violence from Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority. Serbia warns that an exodus of Kosovo’s Serbs northwards into Serbia might prompt additional ethnic fighting (Guardian). Further complicating these scenarios is likely turnover in international oversight of the province. A looming Russian veto threat in the UN Security Council means the United Nations is unlikely to officially recognize Kosovo as independent and would have to withdraw its mission there. The European Union has readied a replacement mission (Reuters), but questions linger over how smoothly a transfer would take place. For starters, Russia recently questioned the legality (RIA Novosti) of EU or NATO forces operating in an independent Kosovo without explicit authority from the UN Security Council.

The stakes are also high for Serbia. Belgrade recently held presidential elections, with the more moderate of two runoff candidates, Boris Tadic, winning narrowly. Yet nationalist pressures on Tadic remain strong.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.